Reds vs. Padres: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Cincinnati Reds look to cool off a red-hot San Diego Padres squad.

Payback comes in the form of many fashions; however, as the Padres make their annual visit to the Queen City, the only retribution the Cincinnati Reds (39-38) should be seeking are victories.  Less than two weeks ago, San Diego swept a four-game set from the Reds, who were riding a six-game winning streak, at Petco Park. Since that series, the Redlegs have been stuck in neutral.

Cincinnati is 4-3 over their last seven contests and can ill afford to fall further behind in the National League Central race. Entering play today, the Reds trail the first-place Milwaukee Brewers by six games as the calendar prepares to flip to July.

Considering the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the San Diego Padres all play in the National League West, it would take a miracle for the Reds to qualify for a Wild Card spot. But if that’s the route the Reds need to go, this series takes on even greater significance.

San Diego currently owns the second Wild Card berth in the NL with seven games separating them and the Redlegs. Barring a complete collapse, the Padres are going to be playing in October. As of Monday, Baseball Reference gives the Friars a 92.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

The Padres (47-33) have done more than their fair share to earn such confidence. Coming off a 9-1 homestand, San Diego is praying similar results follow them as they leave Southern California. However, the road has not been as smooth for the Padres this season.

Sporting a 17-18 mark away from Petco Park, the Friars are hardly the same intimidating crew that thrive at home. Fortunately, for the Redlegs, they’ve taken advantage of San Diego’s recent visits to Great American Ball Park.

The Reds have not dropped a series at GABP to San Diego since the 2016 campaign when the Padres beat up on left-handers Cody Reed and Brandon Finnegan. In other words, it’s been a while since the Padres have left Cincinnati feeling good about themselves.

The Reds’ backstops will be tested in this series.

To say the Padres like to run is like saying the Roadrunner enjoys stretching his legs. Entering play today, San Diego has swiped 73 bases in 92 attempts. The next closest club in the thievery department in the senior circuit is the Miami Marlins, with 50 stolen bases.

For comparison’s sake, the Reds have been caught stealing 16 times in 57 fewer attempts than the Friars. Outfielder Tommy Pham and infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined to steal 27 bags in only 32 chances.

It will be imperative for the Cincinnati pitching staff to limit the traffic on the basepaths because the numbers suggest it will be a mismatch for the Reds catching crew. Redleg backstops Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Stephenson have nailed just 18% of would-be base stealers, which is well below the 26% league average.

While the Padre position players are busy running all over the basepaths, the San Diego pitching staff have ensured opposing hitters travel a short distance. Friar hurlers have fanned 800 batters, placing them second among NL staffs.

The Reds learned firsthand how devastating Padre pitching can be. Cincinnati batters whiffed 36 times during the four-game set at Petco Park, including a staggering 15 punch-outs in the June 18th defeat.

Starters Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove both reside inside the top 15 in strikeouts in the National League; however, racking up K’s have not been limited to the rotation. San Diego relievers are second, with 364 strikeouts. Right-hander Craig Stammen is tied for third in the senior circuit among relievers fanning 48 hitters.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Padres

Following his first big league victory Tony Santillan (1-1 3.29 ERA) gets the call in the opener, opposing Blake Snell (3-3 5.29 ERA) of the Padres. Santillan was excellent versus the Atlanta Braves. Tossing six innings, he allowed just one run on three hits while recording eight strikeouts.

This will not be the big Texan’s first dance with San Diego. The Friars roughed up Santillan for three runs on four hits in only three frames of work on June 18th at Petco Park. However, GABP has been kind to the Cincinnati right-hander. Santillan has allowed just two runs in 10.2 innings in front of the home fans.

Blake Snell will be making his first career start against the Redlegs. His debut season in San Diego has been a struggle for the left-hander. The southpaw has issued 40 free passes in just 66.1 frames while righties have tattooed him, producing a .267/.378/.482 slash line.

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Another Cincinnati rookie, Vladimir Gutierrez (3-2 3.97 ERA), battles the Friars’ Joe Musgrove (4-6 2.22 ERA) on Wednesday night in the Queen City. It’s been a solid first month in a major league uniform for Gutierrez.

Throwing 34 innings, he’s allowed just 29 hits while recording 27 strikeouts. Nevertheless, the Padres were not fooled by the 25-year-old Cuban the last time they met. A dozen Friars reached base via a hit or walk in only five frames in a 7-5 San Diego victory on June 19th.

Somehow Joe Musgrove has a losing record despite a 2.22 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Unfortunately, the San Diego offense has done the 28-year-old no favors. The Padres are averaging just 3.6 runs in the right-hander’s starts, and he’s winless since May 19th, even though he’s failed to surrender more than three runs in six consecutive outings.

Thursday night’s series finale will feature Luis Castillo (3-10 5.14 ERA) for the Redlegs while San Diego manager Jayce Tingler has yet to announce his starter. So how good has La Piedra been over the last month? In short, very good.

Tossing 31.2 innings in his last five starts, Castillo has allowed just 19 hits and compiled an impressive 1.71 ERA. Needless to say, this is more like the version of La PIedra that Reds Country has been accustomed to seeing.

Don’t look for catcher Victor Caritini in the Padres’ starting lineup Thursday night. The former Cub is 2-for-19 with eight strikeouts lifetime against Castillo. It’s been a welcomed relief to see the return of La Piedra.