Reds Draft: 3 below-slot players Cincinnati should target in Round 1

1. The Reds should target Ole Miss pitcher Gunnar Hoglund in the MLB Draft.

Typically, going after a pitcher who’s just undergone Tommy John surgery is not a sound strategy. However, given that the Cincinnati Reds have three of the first 35 picks in this year’s MLB Draft, taking a high-risk/ high-reward prospect with the 17th-overall selection might not be a bad idea. Gunnar Hoglund, a starter at Ole Miss, should be targeted by the Reds in Round 1.

Before going under the knife, Hoglund owned a 2.87 ERA in 11 starts with a 0.91 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 62.2 innings this spring. Hoglund was one of the top pitchers in the Southeastern Conference, but that all came to screeching halt in May when an elbow injury led to Tommy John surgery that likely won’t Hoglund back on the bump until next year.

Normally, that might dissuade some teams from taking Gunnar Hoglund, but it could put Cincinnati in the catbird’s seat, as selecting the right-hander higher than many experts project might provide the Reds with with a discount in terms of signing the Ole Miss product. Hoglund was flying up draft boards until the injury and was considered by many to be a Top10 pick.

The New York Yankees used a similar strategy with Clarke Schmidt in 2017. The right-hander had Tommy John surgery one month before the MLB Draft and Brian Cashman selected the South Carolina product with the 16th overall pick and signed him to a below-slot deal. Four years later, Schmidt is the Yankees’ No. 2 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline.