Reds vs. Braves: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 30: Charlie Culberson #8 of the Atlanta Braves is forced out at second by Kyle Farmer #52 of the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /

The Reds and Braves clash, looking to gain ground in their respective divisions.

When you take a look at the Cincinnati Reds (36-36), they’re in a very similar boat to their National League East opponent this weekend, the Atlanta Braves (35-38). Both teams had a measure of success last season, but are struggling to build off that success in 2021.

After a trying road trip, the Reds return home to Great American Ball Park looking to put together another winning streak. After ripping off three straight against the Milwaukee Brewers on the road, Cincinnati dropped four straight against the San Diego Padres. The Redlegs split the two-game set with Minnesota and return home sporting a .500 record.

The Braves find themselves, surprisingly, three games below .500 and five games out of the NL East Division. As expected, the Braves’ offense is among the best in the league, but much like the Reds, Atlanta’s pitching staff has been the Achilles’ heel for Brian Skitker’s group this season.

After a day off yesterday, the Reds need to gear-up for a challenging homestand. After a four-game stretch against the Braves, Cincinnati has makeup game next Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies before the Padres come to town.

Following that opportunity for revenge, the Chicago Cubs come to town for a three-game set, then Cincinnati goes on the road for seven straight games with a trip to Kansas City and Milwaukee awaiting the Reds after the homestand. The Cincinnati Reds face a stretch of 18 consecutive days until the All-Star break.

Over the next 18 days, the fan base should have a good idea as to whether or not the Reds are going be competitive and looking to buy at the July 30th trade deadline, or if Cincinnati has fallen out of the NL Central race and will be sellers by the end of next month. It all starts with a four-game visit from the Atlanta Braves. Let’s preview the upcoming matchup.

ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 01: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a single in the third inning of Game Two of the National League Wild Card Series against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /

The Braves’ stats are eerily similar to the Reds’ numbers in 2021.

The Atlanta Braves are five games back of the division-leading New York Mets, have a negative run differential, rely heavily on their hitting to set the tone, and say a prayer once their starters leave the mound. Sound like anyone you know?

The Braves and Reds share a lot of similarities. The Reds’ bullpen ranks dead-last in the National League with an ERA of 5.70, but the Braves’ relief corps hasn’t been much better, posting an earned run average of 4.89. However, where Cincinnati’s relievers are near the top of the league in strikeouts (321), Atlanta’s bullpen has only 268 punch outs on the season.

That said, the Cincinnati Reds bullpen has allowed a league-worst 48 home runs, while the Atlanta Braves firemen have surrendered just 33 long balls. Cincinnati relievers have also walked 153 batters this season, while Atlanta’s relief squad has placed just 111 on base via a free pass.

On the other side of things, the Reds are first in the NL in hits (610), second in OPS (.749), ands fourth in home runs (96). Atlanta ranks 10th in hits, but the Braves patient approach at the plate allow their OPS (.741) to put them fourth among all other NL clubs, and second in homers (102).

Leading the way for the Atlanta Braves is MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. The Braves’ outfielder is likely headed to his second All-Star appearance. Acuña ranks third in the NL in OPS (.996), trailing only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Reds’ outfielder Jesse Winker. Of the four Reds starters headed to the hill this weekend, only Luis Castillo has faced Acuña and allowed one hit in three at-bats.

SAN DIEGO, CA – JUNE 19: Vladimir Gutierrez #53 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the first inning. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Braves

We don’t yet know who’ll get the start in any of the upcoming games for the Atlanta Braves, but the Cincinnati Reds rotation is set. After Wade Miley got his team back on track during the series finale in Minnesota, David Bell will send the usual suspects to the mound for Cincinnati.

First up will be rookie right-hander Tony Santillan. The hulking Texan is looking to go a bit further on Thursday night than he did during his last appearance. In a desperate attempt to put some runs on the board, Santillan was lifted in favor of a pinch hitter in the top of the fourth inning against the Padres. This limited Santillan to just three inning, allowed three runs and struck out three.

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There’s a chance that this could be Santillan’s last chance to make an impression, as Sonny Gray may return as early as next week. The two-time All-Star is making a rehab start tonight in Louisville, which would put Gray on track to start next Tuesday versus the San Diego Padres.

Going on Friday night will be fellow rookie hurler Vladimir Gutierrez (3-1, 3.86 ERA). The right-hander will be looking for redemption following his previous start in which he surrendered five runs on eight hits, but managed to work his way out of some very tough spots. Gutierrez will need to cut down on the free passes, however, as the 25-year-old walked four batter last week in San Diego.

Luis Castillo (2-10, 5.61 ERA) takes the ball on Saturday for the Redlegs. The last time Castillo saw the Braves it was in the Wild Card round of the 2020 MLB Playoffs. Castillo took the loss that day, but pitched very well with seven punch outs through 5.1 innings. Hopefully, La Piedra will have the same stuff working on Saturday versus Atlanta.

Sunday’s series finale will see the Cincinnati Reds’ top pitcher head to the hill, as Tyler Mahle (7-2, 3.56 ERA) draws the start. Mahle has 98 strike outs this season through just 15 games. It looks as if the right-hander will shatter his previous career-high (129) set in 2019 if he remains healthy for the rest of the season.

SAN DIEGO, CA – JUNE 19: Tyler Naquin #12 of the Cincinnati Reds scores ahead of the tag. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Tyler Naquin helped the Reds salvage the road trip.

It seemed as though the nine games on the road were marred by excruciating disappointment. Seeing the Cincinnati Reds plow through the Milwaukee Brewers only to be stifled time after time by the San Diego Padres made the two-game set in Minnesota all the more important. Thank goodness for Tyler Naquin.

Nick Krall’s shrewd signing of Naquin to a minor-league contract has paid huge dividends this season, but few things the left-handed slugger has done this season will match saving the Reds from a horrendous loss on Tuesday. Naquin’s go-ahead three-run bomb helped Cincinnati escape the Twin Cities with a series split.

But that’s not all the former Indians’ outfielder has done this season. Naquin is tied for seventh in the league with 46 RBIs this season. David Bell made the decision some time ago to move Naquin down in the batting order, and it’s not uncommon to see the 30-year-old hitting in the cleanup spot behind Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos.

With Nick Senzel still on the injured list and the reluctance of the Cincinnati Reds to play Shogo Akiyama, it looks as though Tyler Naquin will be the team’s primary centerfielder until the All-Star break. His fate may hang in the balance, as a stretch of losing may force the team to consider trading Naquin before the July 30th deadline.

But if this Cincinnati team has success in the coming weeks, a big reason for it could be Naquin. He’s hitting .273/.360/.455 in his last seven games and has five RBIs during that stretch as well. Naquin may not get all the accolades that goes the way of Winker and Castellanos, but he’s almost as valuable to this team as his fellow outfielders.

Predicting the Reds vs. Braves series

This is a tough one, because we don’t yet know who’s taking the ball for the Atlanta Braves, but we can assume the Cincinnati Reds will see the likes of Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson in the upcoming series.

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Still, the Reds offense has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, and I expect that to continue. The big question mark for the Reds is their bullpen, and until the front office makes some additions, I have a hard time seeing Cincinnati being able to hold the lead. Look for the Redlegs to split the series with Atlanta before welcoming the Phillies to town on Monday.

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