Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

A red-hot Reds’ ball club faces its most challenging week of the season.

Give the Cincinnati Reds (32-31) credit. When the opportunity presented itself to rack up some wins against an inferior Colorado Rockies club, the Redlegs took full advantage by sweeping their second consecutive weekend series.

Winners of eight of their last 10 contests, Cincinnati will now face the only club to hang losses on them during that stretch, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds’ first visit to American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) in 2021 finds them sitting in third place in the National League Central, five games behind the Beer Makers.

Interestingly, American Family Field seems like a sanctuary for the Redlegs compared to the pitfall Great American Ball Park has become when facing the Brewers. Cincinnati has not dropped a series in Milwaukee since September of the 2018 campaign. The last Reds’ pitcher to take a defeat in a series-deciding game in the Cream City was Matt Harvey. In other words, it’s been a while.

As hot as the Reds have been lately, the Milwaukee Brewers (38-27) have been even better. The Brew Crew have won nine of their last 10 games, with the lone defeat at the hands of the Redlegs last Wednesday at GABP. Manager Craig Counsell has his Brewers rolling. Over their last 20 games, the Beer Makers are a remarkable 16-4. However, something will have to give this week in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 20-15 at home and are 17-10 overall versus divisional foes. On the other hand, the Reds are 16-15 away from the Queen City while compiling an impressive 16-12 record against their NL Central rivals.

One characteristic both clubs share is the ability to win close games. Milwaukee is 10-6 in one-run contests, while despite having a horrendous bullpen, Cincinnati has been victorious nine times in 15 opportunities in similar games.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers.

To call Vladimir Gutierrez (2-1 2.65 ERA) a welcomed surprise would be an understatement. Since making his major league debut on May 28th, the right-hander has faced the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, and now for the second time, the Milwaukee Brewers in tonight’s series opener.

It will be interesting to see what adjustments the Brewers make as they get their second look at the 25-year-old right-hander. Gutierrez holds the distinction of being the only pitcher to defeat the Brewers in their last 10 contests as he tossed seven innings of two-run ball with seven punchouts in his last start.

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Left-hander Eric Lauer (1-2 4.82 ERA) will be making his first start since June 1st for Milwaukee tonight. In his last start, the southpaw was awful, allowing seven runs and three homers in just two frames versus the Detroit Tigers. The Reds torched Lauer in his last start against Cincinnati, chasing him after only three innings as they dented the plate six times on five hits.

Luis Castillo (2-9 6.47 ERA) gets the call in game two, opposing veteran Brett Anderson (2-4 4.99 ERA). Even though La Pieda’s overall numbers continue to look ugly, he has been much better in his last three starts.

Hurling 16.2 innings, he’s allowed just eight hits and six earned runs while recording 15 strikeouts. These are the type of numbers Reds Country has been accustomed to seeing from the right-hander since arriving in the Queen City in 2017.

Chances are we’ll know right away what kind of night Castillo is going to have. Milwaukee leadoff man Kolten Wong is slashing .429/.478/.762 with four extra-base hits in 21 career at-bats versus La Piedra.

Brett Anderson has not fooled the Reds lineup in their earlier two meetings this season. Tossing eight frames, he’s allowed seven runs on nine hits. Additionally, Nick Castellanos’ eyes light up when Aderson takes the mound.  Three of the  Cincinnati right fielder’s eight hits against the Milwaukee starter have gone for extra bases.

Wednesday afternoon’s series finale will feature a pair of quality right-handers as Tyler Mahle (6-2 3.56 ERA) battles Freddy Peralta (6-1 2.25 ERA). How good has Tyler Mahle been over the last month? The round-tripper he surrendered in his last start was the first time he’s been taken deep since May 15th versus Colorado at Coors Field.

This will be Mahle’s first start against the Beer Makers since September of 2019, as he’s still looking for his first career victory versus Milwaukee. In four career starts, he’s yielded 13 earned runs in 19 frames; however, he’s also fanned 27 Brewers.

Freddy Peralta has yet to allow more than three hits in his two starts against the Reds this season; however, he’s also failed to complete five innings in each appearance. Wednesday would be a perfect day for David Bell to give Eugenio Suarez a day off. Geno is just 2-for-16 lifetime with six punch outs against the Milwaukee starter.

Aristides Aquino could play a pivotal role as the Reds’ season unfolds.

The emergence of centerfielder Tyler Naquin has solved several issues for the Cincinnati Reds this season. First, it’s provided another slugging left-handed bat in the lineup to complement fellow lefties Joey Votto and Jesse Winker. Secondly, it allows manager David Bell to deploy the right-handed-hitting Aristides Aquino against left-handed pitchers.

Over the past three seasons, it’s become painfully obvious that, at best, Aquino is a platoon player, and there’s certainly value to be had inserting his powerful bat in the lineup against favorable matchups.

After missing two months following a broken bone in his hand, Aquino is finally healthy. This Milwaukee series is the perfect opportunity for him to make a significant contribution as the Brewers will throw left-handed starters at the Cincinnati lineup in the first two games of the three-game set.

In 76 career at-bats facing lefties, The Punisher has left the yard six times, and his OBP of .326  outpaces his career mark of .311. When you consider the left-handed-hitting Tyler Naquin slashes .224/.291/.372 versus southpaws, a platoon of Aristides Aquino and Tyler Naquin in centerfield is a no-brainer.

Prediction

For the first time since 2014, the Cincinnati Reds are above the .500 mark in June. However, this series will go a long way in determining just how long the Redlegs keep their head above water.

Milwaukee has certainly been impressive over the last month, but there’s reason to believe they’re not as good as their record indicates. A run differential of +10 through 65 games reeks of a club who should be hovering around the .500 mark. Look for Milwaukee to fall closer to that standard as the Redlegs capture two of three before heading to San Diego for a four-game set.