Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds and Brewers, the hottest two teams in the division, square off at GABP.

With all due respect to Prince, let’s party like it’s 1990, Reds Country. For the first time in 31 years, the Cincinnati Reds (28-29) have swept a four-game set in St. Louis, setting the stage for an important three-game tilt with the surging Milwaukee Brewers.

Following the 17-3 shellacking at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies a week ago, nobody could have anticipated the Redlegs’ rampage through Busch Stadium. However, as we all know, baseball is a funny game.

Just how did the Reds pull of this most unexpected feat? First of all, kudos to the starting rotation for tossing four brilliant games. Each starter that manager David Bell sent to the mound did their job and left the game with the Reds leading, placing the team in a position to win.

Next, Jesse Winker was Jesse Winker as he sent rockets flying all over Busch Stadium. Finally, Lucas Sims escaped more tight spots than George Clooney’s character in O Brother, Where Art Thou? The right-handed reliever may not have helped our blood pressure, but he got the outs when the Reds needed them the most.

Even though the Reds’ seven victories in the past 10 contest is impressive, the Milwaukee Brewers (33-26) have been better over the same timeframe.  The Beer Makers have captured wins in nine of their last 10 games and vaulted to the top of the National League Central.

This will be Milwaukee’s second trip to the Queen City, having taken two of three from the Reds in their first visit, which is nothing new for the Brewers. Recent history has been kind to Milwaukee in Cincinnati as the Brewers have won two of the last three series at Great American Ball Park.

The Brewers stout rotation is lifting a light offense.

For the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s all about the pitching. More specifically, the starting pitching.  Members of the  Brewers’ rotation currently consume three of the top six spots in the NL ERA race. Right-handers Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta occupy the two, four, and six positions, respectively.

As a group, the Milwaukee rotation has compiled an excellent 3.13 ERA and an impressive 1.03 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a meager .200 batting average. Needless to say, the pitching leader board in the NL is littered with Beer Makers.

Brandon Woodruff holds down the top spot in bWAR, while Corbin Burnes leads league hurlers in WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings. But wait, there’s more. Freddy Peralta is setting the pace in allowing the fewest hits per nine frames. Thankfully, he’ll be the only one of the three-headed monster the Reds will see in this series.

Milwaukee has needed every bit of their fantastic rotation to pick up the slack for a stale offensive unit that has been the worst in the National League. The Brewers’ offense resides in the league basement with a paltry .211 batting average and a ghastly .297 OBP.

The bats don’t suffer from a lack of effort or, in their case, maybe too much effort. Milwaukee’s offense trails only Philadelphia with 581 strikeouts. However, when the Brewers do make contact, the ball tends to fly out of the park.

Ranking fifth in the senior circuit with 75 round-trippers, Milwaukee has a balanced power attack.  Right fielder Avisail Garcia is the only Brewer in double digits in homers with 11, but four other Beer Makers have gone deep at least six times.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers.

Tonight’s opener pits Sonny Gray (1-4 3.64 ERA) against Adrian Houser (3-5 3.86 ERA) of the Brewers. After tossing six shutout innings versus the Washington Nationals, Sonny Gray had another frustrating outing his last time on the mound.

Allowing six hits, including a pair of home runs, in just 4.2 frames, Gray took the loss in the 14-run defeat to the Phillies in the team’s most recent appearance at GABP. Unfortunately, consistency has been an issue all season for the Reds’ right-hander.

In his nine starts, he’s allowed two runs or less five times, yet he’s failed to complete five innings an alarming four times.  Keeping the ball in the yard will be paramount for Gray. The Milwaukee offense swings for the fences, and Gray’s 1.5 HR/9 and 21.1% flyball rates are career highs for the Vanderbilt alum.

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Speaking of hitting home runs, don’t sleep on Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser at the plate. Twice this year, Houser has left the yard, and it’s completely mind-boggling. Entering this year, the Brewers right-hander had one hit in 22 career at-bats with 17 punchouts. Go figure.

After securing his first major-league victory his last time out, Vladimir Gutierrez (1-1 2.70 ERA) goes for win number two as he opposes the Brewers’ Brett Anderson (2-3 4.42 ERA) Wednesday night. Give Gutierrez a ton of credit; he showed an incredible amount of moxie on Friday night.

The Reds rookie allowed two runs on three hits during a difficult opening frame while allowing a walk, stolen base, and committing a balk.  From there, the right-hander was lights out. He failed to yield another hit at one point, retiring 10 Cardinals in a row before handing the game off to Tejay Antone following five strong innings.

Two facts the Reds have learned about Milwaukee left-hander Brett Anderson are he will throw strikes and give up the long ball.  Anderson has not issued a base on balls to the Reds over his last 11 innings; however, he’s surrendered three homers over that timeframe, including two in his May 22nd start at GABP.

Thursday’s matinee series finale will feature Luis Castillo (2-8 6.63 ERA) while Brewers manager Craig Counsell will counter with Freddy Peralta (6-1 2.25 ERA). Don’t call it a comeback just yet, but La Piedra looked like his old self in his last start.

Tossing six innings of three-hit one-run baseball, Castillo fanned five Redbirds earning his second victory of the season. It was just his third start in which he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer this season. Let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come.

Thursday will be an encore performance of a Castillo and Peralta matchup. The two right-handers faced each other on May 23rd at GABP, and neither had a particularly good day as La Piedra allowed five runs in as many innings, while Peralta failed to escape the fifth as he walked a season-high four hitters.