Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds return to St. Louis, hoping history doesn’t repeat itself versus Cardinals.

To quote Charles Dickens, “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” In the rain abbreviated two-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cincinnati Reds captured a microcosm of their 2021 season.

Somehow the Reds (24-29) managed to be outscored during the two-game series despite clobbering the Phillies 11-1 on Memorial Day. But those things happen when your bullpen allows 13 runs in just four innings of work. Unfortunately, we have to talk about the relief corps for a minute.

Through the first 53 games of the 2021 campaign, the Cincinnati bullpen’s ERA of 5.71 is the worst in the National League, as are the 35 round-trippers they’ve served up. Their 118 free passes are the second-highest total in the senior circuit. All of those issues were on full display Tuesday night.

In the 17-3 drubbing by the Phils, the Reds fireman set Great American Ball Park ablaze by issuing four free passes, five homers, 12 hits, and 13 runs. Granted, some of those numbers are inflated because utility infielder Alex Blandino worked an inning on the mound, but you get the idea.

While the St. Louis Cardinals (31-25) are far from a perfect team, they’ve taken care of business at home, winning 15 of their 25 contests at Busch Stadium. Additionally, the Cards have beaten up on division opponents. The Redbirds are 13-7 versus division foes, including a 4-2 mark against the Reds. When Cincinnati visits the Gateway City, disaster typically ensues.

Over the last decade, the Reds .409 winning percentage against the Cardinals is their worst versus a division rival. The Redbirds swept the first series between the two clubs in St. Louis this season, outscoring the Reds by a 12-6 margin.

The Cardinals continue to defy their numbers.

What does arguably the National League’s worst bullpen and a below-average offense get you? If you’re the St. Louis Cardinals, it leaves you contending with the Chicago Cubs for NL Central supremacy.

As bad as the Reds’ bullpen has been, there’s a case to be made the Cardinals’ pen has been even worse. Entering play on Wednesday, Redbird relievers have walked a league-high 125 opposing hitters while their 1.45 WHIP places them 12th in the senior circuit.

Lefty Tyler Webb has been especially horrendous when called upon by manager Mike Shildt. Tossing 15.1 innings in 21 appearances, Webb has allowed a staggering 17 walks and 19 hits while compiling a 12.33 ERA. Webb almost makes Amir Garrett seem reliable. Almost.

What about the St. Louis offense? Again, an underwhelming unit. Their .231 team batting average and .303 OBP marks are both below the NL average. However, what offense they are receiving is coming from unexpected sources.

Second baseman Tommy Edman is putting together an All-Star worthy season. Slashing .279/.333/.403 with 10 stolen bases, his 2.3 bWAR is good enough for fourth among all NL position players.

Outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been crushing the ball. The 26-year-old right-handed slugger leads the Cardinals with a dozen home runs while slugging at an impressive .619 rate as play began yesterday.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cardinals

Rookie Vladimir Gutierrez (0-1 1.80 ERA) will make his second big league start against Adam Wainwright (3-4 4.22 ERA), who’ll be making his 404th career start for the Cardinals in tonight’s opener. Reds Country can only hope Gutierrez’s second start goes as well as his debut.

Tossing five innings versus the Chicago Cubs, the right-hander allowed only two hits, including a solo homer in the Reds 1-0 loss to the North Siders. Facing the best two teams in the division to open his career can only fill the rookie with confidence if he’s able to shut down the Redbirds.

No team has hung more L’s on Adam Wainwright than the Cincinnati Reds. His 14 defeats are the most against any opponent. In addition, his 5.35 career ERA versus the Redlegs is his highest against any opponent he’s faced more than twice. Needless to say, the Reds love facing Waino.

Here we go again. Luis Castillo (1-8 7.22 ERA) takes the mound Friday as the Redbirds counter with Kwang Hyun Kim (1-3 3.65 ERA). The good news is La Piedra’s two earned runs he allowed in his last start as the fewest he’s surrendered since an April 20th start against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Reds Country have turned themselves blue holding their breath for a vintage Luis Castillo start this season. Our only hope is La Piedra uses whatever potion he serves to Tyler O’Neill is contagious. The St. Louis outfielder is 2-for-16 lifetime versus Luis Castillo. Of course, both of those hits are long balls.

Kwang Hyun Kim has earned only one victory this season, and naturally, it came versus the Cincinnati Reds on April 23rd as he whiffed eight in just 5.2 innings allowing only one run. In three career starts against the Redlegs, he’s undefeated, having surrendered just the one run in 16.2 frames. Good luck, La Piedra.

Cardinals manager Mike Shildt has yet to name a starter for Saturday afternoon’s tilt as David Bell will send his best Tyler Mahle (4-2 3.42 ERA) to the hill. Excluding two poor starts at the hands of the Cubs and Giants, the Reds right-hander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season.

In Mahle’s 11 starts his year, the Reds are 8-3. That’s the definition of a stopper. This is not news to Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman. The two Cardinals’ infielders are a combined 2-for-19 in their career against the California native.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Wade Miley (5-4 3.26 ERA) as John Gant (4-3 1.60 ERA) get the starring role for the Redbirds.  The Cincinnati left-hander is coming off a solid start on Memorial Day following a stint on the 10-day IL.

Miley hurled six innings of one-run baseball as the Reds coasted to a holiday victory.  Making his second start versus the Cardinals this year, we can only hope for a similar performance to his first outing.  Even though he was saddled with the loss, he surrendered only two runs over six effective frames.

Cardinals right-hander John Gant has a 1.60 ERA, and I have no idea how.  Tossing 50.2 innings, he’s walked 34 and given up 43 hits.  He’s the only pitcher on the planet with such a ridiculously low ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.  The clock will strike midnight sooner or later for Gant, and Sunday looks like the perfect opportunity for that to happen.