Reds vs. Phillies: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 04: A large American flag stretches over the outfield during the national anthem before starting the Chicago White Sox game against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The Reds welcome the Phillies to town for Memorial Day.

Following a 1-6 homestand, the Cincinnati Reds (23-28) at least did not fall further under .500 by splitting a six-game road trip that saw them visit Washington D.C. and Chicago. Realistically, it’s the best Reds Country could have hoped for as the two cities have been brutal stops for the Redlegs in recent years.

Tyler Mahle had an exceptional week. The right-hander won both of his starts tossing 10.1 innings of shutout baseball. In addition, the California native allowed just four hits and two walks while recording 10 punchouts.

What more can you say about Nick Castellanos? Yesterday the Cincinnati right-fielder extended his hit streak to 16 games. As play begins today, he’s leading the National League in batting average, slugging, and OPS. If Castellanos can continue anything remotely close to this pace, he’ll go down as one of the best free-agent signings in club history.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) come to town after dropping the final two games of their weekend set with the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s been a tough stretch for the Phillies, who have dropped seven of their last 10 games and lost former MVP Bryce Harper, to the IL with a bruised left forearm.

There’s no doubt the Phils would love to have Harper in the lineup over the next three days because the Queen City has proved to be a royal pain for the ballclub in recent years. Since 2012 the Reds have won 19 of the 26 contests between the two at Great American Ball Park.

Additionally, the Phillies have not won a series in Cincinnati since 2012 and have been swept four times over the past decade. Hall of Famer Roy Halladay was the last Philadephia pitcher to secure a series-clinching victory for the Phils in Cincinnati. In other words, it’s been a long time since the Phillies have left the Queen City feeling good about themselves.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 24: Brandon Kintzler #19 of the Philadelphia Phillies hands the ball to manager Joe Girardi #25 as he is taken out of the game. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The Phillies’ bridge to closer Hector Neris has collapsed.

It’s no secret why the Phillies find themselves three games under .500 as they reach Memorial Day. The Philadephia bullpen has blown 11 of their 24 save opportunities on the season. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have failed to protect a lead more often than the Phillies.

Setup man Brandon Kintzler has been a disaster. The right-hander has allowed 14 earned runs and 30 men to reach base via a hit or base on balls in only 16.1 innings of work. When the Phillies inked him to a free-agent deal in February, I’m sure a 7.71 ERA and 1.84 WHIP is not the kind of relief they had in mind.

Once the Phillies successfully get the ball to closer Hector Neris, they’re in great shape. The 32-year-old right-hander has nine saves in 11 opportunities compiling a 1.99 ERA to go along with 27 strikeouts in 22.2 frames.

Luckily for the Phillies, they play in the National League East, where only the New York Mets have a winning record. However, it’s not only been the bullpen that has been an issue, as the offense has been less than spectacular as well.

To call the Phillies, a free-swinging bunch would be an understatement. They lead the senior circuit, fanning 536 times, and the .307 team OBP is evidence the Philadelphia offense has no intention of working the count.

Philadelphia has three players, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Andrew McCutchen, who has already whiffed at least 56 times this season. But we’re willing to give Hoskins a pass, as he leads the club in both homers (11) and RBIs (31). All-Star catcher JT Realmuto has been excellent at the plate producing an impressive .287/.391/.470 slash line with a 143 OPS+ mark.

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 07: Wade Miley #22 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates after the last out. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Phillies

Wade Miley (4-4 3.50 ERA) gets the Memorial Day start opposing Vince Velasquez (2-0 2.95 ERA) of the Phillies. The Cincinnati Reds southpaw returns to the active roster following a stint on the IL due to a left foot sprain.

Hopefully, his nearly two-week absence will allow Miley to regain his form. In his two starts before his trip to the IL, the Louisiana native allowed nine runs and 17 hits in just 7.2 innings. Two Philadelphia veterans who have struggled mightily against the Cincinnati left-hander are Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura. Combined, the two Phillies are 6-for-34 lifetime versus Wade Miley.

Velasquez has been on a roll of late for the Phillies. The right-hander has allowed just three runs in his last four starts covering 23 innings. However, it would behoove the Reds to be patient in the batter’s box. Velasquez has issued 22 free passes in only 36.2 frames.

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Tuesday night finds a couple of the league’s best right-handers dueling one another as Sonny Gray (1-3 3.40 ERA) and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (3-4 3.72 ERA) meet. Gray is coming off an exceptional start against the Washington Nationals as he tossed six shutout innings to earn his first victory of the season.

Philadelphia is just one of six teams Gray has failed to defeat in his career. Granted, he’s only faced them twice, with each of those starts occurring during the 2019 season. Look for the list of teams to be reduced to five following Tuesday’s start.

If Nick Castellanos’ hitting streak is going to be stopped, don’t be surprised if it comes at the hands of Aaron Nola. Cincinnati’s slugging right-fielder has only one hit in 12 career at-bats versus the Phillies ace with five punchouts.

Wednesday matinee’s series finale will feature Vladimir Gutierrez (0-1 1.80 ERA) squaring off against Spencer Howard (0-1 5.56 ERA) of the Phillies. Gutierrez was tremendous in his MLB debut last Friday, allowing only a solo home run in five innings of work.

As a result of Jeff Hoffman being placed on the IL with a shoulder issue, the fifth spot in the Reds rotation seems to be Gutierrez’s to lose. If the right-hander can muster a similar performance to his debut, Cincinnati should feel confident the final spot of the starting rotation has received an upgrade.

This will be 24-year-old Spencer Howard’s first appearance versus the Reds. In two starts this year, the right-hander has surrendered just two runs in seven frames. However, he has also walked seven hitters. Patience will be the key again in the series finale as Cincinnati hitters must make Howard throw strikes.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 24: Manager David Bell #25 of the Cincinnati Reds instructs one of his batters. Milwaukee defeated Cincinnati 4-2. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

Memorial Day is not a true snapshot of the 2021 Reds.

Having played 51 games and reaching Memorial Day, we can no longer accurately use the phrase “it’s early.” An old baseball adage is don’t look at the standings until Memorial Day. Unfortunately, for the Redlegs, it’s Groundhog Day.

Cincinnati enters the holiday six games back in the National League Central. As a matter of fact, the Reds have not been above .500 on Memorial Day since 2013 during Dusty Baker’s final season as manager.

Can the Cincinnati Reds truly make a serious run at the division? Let’s recap what the first 51 contests tell us. First, the Reds can score runs in bunches, as evidence by the seven times they’ve scored more than 10 runs in a game. Second, the offense is inconsistent.

Seven times the Redlegs’ offense has been shutout this season. Despite receiving MVP-worthy performances from outfielders Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker, they still have Eugenio Suarez hitting .163 and regularly start a trio of Alex Blandino, Kyle Farmer, and Jonathan India; of which none are hitting higher than .232 while displaying very little power.

Why exactly are Blandino and Farmer receiving consistent starting assignments? Injuries. Plain and simple. First baseman Joey Votto hasn’t played in nearly a month, and infielder Mike Moustakas has been limited to 28 games due to various ailments. Add in knee surgery for Nick Senzel, and there have been few opportunities for manager David Bell to field his best lineup.

As the final four months unfold, here’s what to watch. Can the Reds get healthy? Will Luis Castillo bounce back from a horrid start? Is the bat of Eugenio Suarez finally coming to life? Can anyone in the bullpen outside of Tejay Antone be trusted? We’re 51 games into the 2021 campaign, but there’s still much unknown about this Reds club.

Prediction

To call this series versus the Phillies a must-win is inaccurate. It’s not a division opponent, and much like Cincinnati, Philadelphia is hovering around .500, trying to put the pieces together. Both teams would love a series victory, but it’s not crucial.

Philadelphia is just 10-18 outside of the City of Brotherly Love, and Great American Ball Park has been a nightmare for them over the past decade. Look for that trend to continue as the Reds take two of three from the Phillies before hitting the road again to stare down their demons in St. Louis.

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