Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds visit the Windy City hoping to cool off a sizzling Cubs team.

Despite having the odds stacked against them facing the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital, the Cincinnati Reds (22-26) were able to beat both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to capture a series they desperately needed. Surprisingly enough, the Reds have turned into road warriors.

Cincinnati has not dropped a series on the road in over a month. After being swept during a weekend series in St. Louis April 23-25, the Reds have gone 9-6 outside the Queen City. However, the Redlegs will face a great challenge this weekend in a ballpark that has been anything but friendly to them in recent years.

Since 2016 the Reds have an embarrassing 13-28 mark at Wrigley Field. Additionally, Cincinnati has been swept in Chicago four times over the past five years, and this Cubbies ballclub has been rampaging through the National League the last three weeks.

Chicago (27-22) has won 14 of their past 20 games, which has vaulted them within a half-game of the first place St. Louis Cardinals, who seem more interested in confiscated hats than winning baseball games in the National League Central. So far in 2021, the Cubs have done most of their damage at home, going 16-9 at the Friendly Confines.

In recent years the benches have cleared about as often as the Reds have won in Chicago. The first meeting between the two clubs earlier this month only added to the drama. The Reds took two of three from Chicago at Great American Ball Park as Amir Garrett continued to annoy the Cubbies and hurt Javier Baez’s feelings. But it wasn’t just tempers flaring that made the series memorable.

A remarkable 10 home runs were blasted between the teams as the Reds won the series finale 13-12 in 10 innings. If the wind is blowing out of Wrigley this weekend, don’t be surprised to see an encore performance of the aerial assault.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez will make his major league debut in Friday afternoon’s series opener battling Adbert Alzolay (2-4 4.30 ERA) of the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati’s No.12 rated prospect, according to MLB.com, has been strong in his three starts at Triple-A Louisville.

Tossing 17 innings, he’s allowed just nine hits and recorded 21 punchouts pitching for the Bats. The 25-year-old Cuban exile signed with the Reds in September of 2016 and features a three-pitch arsenal. His fastball and curveball are his two most effective pitches, but he’ll also use a changeup as well.

Despite dropping two of his last three starts, Adbert Alzolay has whiffed 15 hitters without allowing a free pass in 18 frames in the trio of appearances for the North Siders. His 0.86 WHIP and .195 opponents batting average rank best among Cubs’ starters.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds vs. White Sox: Pitching preview, prediction, and more
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin adds another twist to offseason roster construction
• Reds: Signing Tyler Mahle to a contract extension should be a top priority
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin should get first major league start vs Pirates
• Reds should unquestionably bring Wade Miley back in 2022

Luis Castillo ( 1-7 7.61 ERA) gets yet another opportunity at changing his fortunes as he squares off against Zach Davies (2-2 4.96 ERA) on Saturday. La Piedra’s numbers are terrible, and despite the fact, there’s been nary a glimmer of hope in his starts, manager David Bell seems committed to sticking with Castillo.

If you’re looking for a positive sign for the Reds right-hander, I have one for you. In his last start at Wrigley Field, he fanned 10 Cubbies in six innings while earning the victory in July 2019. No matter which direction La Piedra’s season goes, he can’t blame David Bell, who’s given him more than enough opportunities to succeed.

Beginning with his May 1st start in Cincinnati, right-hander Zach Davies has put together an outstanding month. In five May starts, he’s allowed just five earned runs in 26.1 innings while surrendering just one gopher ball. However, Davies has yet to pitch more than four innings in his last three starts against the Redlegs.

Reds manager David Bell has yet to announce his starter for Sunday’s series finale. If healthy, don’t be surprised to see southpaw Wade Miley get the start. The left-hander is eligible to come off the IL on Sunday, following a 10-day stint on the shelf with a left foot sprain. It will be a huge boost for the Redlegs if Miley can take the mound.

Jake Arrieta (5-4 4.37 ERA) may not like visiting Cincinnati, but the Reds fireworks operator certainly enjoyed the right-hander’s last trip through the Queen City. Lasting just 3.1 innings, Arrieta was lit up for seven hits, seven runs, and three long balls, including Joey Votto’s 300th career blast. Let’s hope for a similar fireworks display for the Cincinnati bats when Arrieta toes the rubber to close out the series for the Cubs.

Reds third baseman, Eugenio Suarez, has excelled atop the batting order.

One phrase I could have never anticipated hearing in 2021 was, “leading off for the Reds, No. 7, Eugenio Suarez.” Give David Bell credit; he’s done everything possible to kick start Geno’s bat, and the early returns since moving him to the leadoff spot for the Cincinnati Reds have been glowing.

During the three-game set against the Nationals, Geno blasted two home runs and collected four hits while powering the Reds to a series victory. How long can Suarez remain at the top of the order? I have my doubts this is a long-term solution, but let’s ride the hot hand.

If one team brings out the best in Eugenio Suarez, it’s without a doubt the Chicago Cubs. His 27 career homers versus Chicago pitching are the most against any opponent, while his 211 total bases versus the North Siders easily outpaces all other foes.

For Cincinnati to compete, they need Eugenio Suarez not to be just good, but excellent. This is the same player who, as recently as 2019, smacked 49 home runs in conjunction with an impressive .930 OPS. If that version of Geno shows up for the final four months of the season, the Redlegs’ lineup will be even more dangerous.

Prediction: Reds drop two games to the red-hot Cubs.

The Cubs are the hottest team in the division, and their big three of Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo have done the heavy lifting and are facing a Cincinnati team whose starting rotation is in flux at the moment.

As much as I want to pick the Reds to win this series, there are just too many unknowns to feel confident. How will Vladimir Gutierrez fare in his debut? Will Luis Castillo escape the fourth or fifth inning? Who starts Sunday? As a result of all the uncertainty, look for the Reds to drop their first road series of the month. However, I would love for the Redlegs to prove me wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.