Reds vs. Nationals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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ST LOUIS, MO – APRIL 25: Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after striking out. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

The Reds visit the nation’s capital with their season on the brink.

It was the week that wasn’t for the Cincinnati Reds. Following a 5-4 road trip, the Reds (20-25) returned to Great American Ball Park and managed to drop six of seven to the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers.

As a result of the disastrous homestand, the Redlegs find themselves a season-worst five games under .500 and 5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. After starting the 2021 campaign 6-1, Cincinnati is a brutal 14-24 since their sizzling start.

No aspect of the Reds game (pitching, hitting, or defense) is absent of blame, but the pitching staff is going through a tough period. Redleg hurlers have allowed at least four runs in 11 consecutive games and 12 of their last 13 contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has surrendered at least six runs in seven contests over the 13-game stretch.

One team feeling much better about themselves is the Washington Nationals (20-23) after a three-game sweep of the neighboring Baltimore Orioles. Even though the Nats occupy the basement of the National League East, they have been victorious in six for their last 10 games.

Unfortunately, the Nationals are historically the last team the Reds want to see in the opposing dugout. Since 2012, their .358 winning percentage against Washington is their worst versus any National League opponent.

As far as Nationals Park is concerned, it’s been a house of horrors for the Redlegs. Cincinnati has not won a series in DC since 2015, and in their last four trips to Washington, they’ve managed to be victorious just three times in 14 games. The Nationals have dropped only one season series to the Reds over the past decade.

CINCINNATI, OH – MAY 31: Trea Turner #7 of the Washington Nationals fields a ground ball in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

Trea Turner leads a potent DC offense against the Reds.

What doesn’t Trea Turner do for the Washington Nationals? The 28-year-old is slashing .324/.363/.545 with a team-leading 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. In addition, his eight stolen bases also leads the club.

As play begins today, Washington is setting the pace in the senior circuit with a .258 team batting average. Currently, the Nats have four regulars hitting .282 or better. Two new faces for the Nationals will look very familiar to Cincinnati fans.

Former Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star first baseman Josh Bell has taken his talents to D.C. At the same time, Middletown, Ohio native Kyle Schwarber occupies left field after spending the previous six seasons with the Chicago Cubs.

Washington has long relied on the strength of their starting pitching for their success, but the rotation has been uncharacteristically erratic to begin the 2021 season. Nationals’ starters have compiled a 4.47 ERA, placing them 10th among all starting staffs in the NL.

One area of concern for the Nats starting rotation has been their inability to consistently throw strikes. Their 86 free passes on the season are the fifth most in the league. Southpaw Patrick Corbin is having a challenging season. The left-hander has allowed 73 hitters to reach base via a hit or walk in only 47 innings.

It would be in the Reds’ best interest to get to the Nationals’ starters because their bullpen is stingy with baserunners. The Nats bullpen WHIP of 1.24 is tied for the third-best mark in the NL. Daniel Hudson has been nothing but nasty for the Nationals.

The right-hander has allowed just two runs and six hits in 17 innings while recording 22 strikeouts. Closer Brad Hand has seven saves in nine opportunities and has punched out 19 in 17.1 frames for the Nats vaunted relief corps.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – MAY 21: Jeff Hoffman #23 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Nationals

This start can only go better for Tyler Mahle (2-2 4.20 ERA) than his last trip to the mound. As a matter of fact, it will need to be infinitely better as the Nationals counter with three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (4-2 2.24 ERA) in the opener.

Mahle lasted just two innings in his last start against the San Francisco Giants, allowing seven runs on as many hits. One Nationals hitter who gives the Reds’ right-hander fits is left-hander slugger Kyle Schwarber.

During their battles in the NL Central, Schwarber took Mahle deep twice in 16 at-bats while compiling a .429 OBP. First baseman Josh Bell is at the opposite end of the Mahle spectrum with only two singles in 12 career at-bats.

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What more can be said about Max Scherzer? The future Hall of Famer’s accolades speak for themselves. Unfortunately, his domination of the Reds is almost otherworldly. Mad Max is 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in his last five starts against the Redlegs. Tossing 34 innings over that stretch, he’s allowed just 17 hits while fanning 55 hapless Cincinnati hitters. Good luck, Reds.

Tuesday night’s contest has Jeff Hoffman (3-3 4.31 ERA) opposing Joe Ross (2-4 5.72), who will take the mound for Washington manager Dave Martinez. Say what you want about Hoffman, but he’s been better than the Reds’ staff’s supposed ace.

Hoffman, the proud owner of the team’s only victory over the last week, looks to build some momentum coming off an impressive start versus the Milwaukee Brewers in which he allowed just one run while recording seven strikeouts over five frames.

However, history tells us it could be a tough night for the Cincinnati right-hander. In three career starts against the Nats, Hoffman has taken the loss in two of those appearances without earning a victory. Tossing 16 innings, he’s allowed as many hits and surrendered 10 runs.

It’s been a struggle of late for Washington right-hander Joe Ross. Completing just 7.2 innings combined in his last two starts, he’s been rocked for 13 hits and 10 earned runs. However, this is not the Joe Ross Cincinnati is accustomed to facing.

Ross has held the Redlegs to a pair of runs over 13.2 innings of work in his last two starts against the Reds. Eugenio Suarez is hitless in nine career at-bats versus Ross; as if things weren’t bad enough for the Cincinnati infielder.

Thursday night’s series finale will feature a marquee matchup of right-handers as Sonny Gray (0-3 3.96 ERA) battles Stephen Strasburg (1-1 4.11 ERA). Sooner or later, Reds Country hopes to see the Sonny Gray of old. For sanity’s sake, let’s hope it’s sooner, as in Thursday night soon.

Gray’s current rate of 4.5 walks and 1.5 gopher balls per nine innings is a career-worst. If Gray is to notch his first victory of the 2021 campaign, his continued domination of Josh Bell and Yan Gomes is a must. The two Nats are a combined 4-for-24 against the Vanderbilt alum with two extra-base hits and six punch outs. Gray has defeated the Nationals just once in five career starts.

Stephen Strasburg will be making his second start since returning from the injured list with right should inflammation. If his last outing is any indication, Strasburg is feeling just fine. Tossing 5.1 shutout innings versus the Baltimore Orioles, he allowed only one hit. The 32-year-old is unbeaten in his last five starts against the Reds, completing 30.2 frames and fanning 32 Redlegs.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – AUGUST 27: Pitching coach Derek Johnson #36 of the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Reds’ pitching coach is looking for answers.

Since arriving before the 2019 season, the Cincinnati Reds and pitching coach Derek Johnson have relied on excellent starting pitching and an adequate bullpen to achieve success. It’s a formula that worked in 2020 as the Reds overcame a league-worst offensive performance to qualify for the postseason for the first time in seven years.

The script has been flipped for the 2021 campaign as the Reds offense is second in the National League with a .249 team batting average but has a league-worst 5.15 team ERA. No matter where Johnson turns, danger is lurking.

Cincinnati starters have the second-worst ERA in the senior circuit, and their 1.42 WHIP is the poorest among all NL starting units. Unfortunately, the bullpen has provided nothing remotely close to relief.

Reds’ firemen have compiled a 5.34 ERA, and their 103 bases on balls trail only the St. Louis Cardinals relief corps. Next, the 10 holds collected by the Cincinnati bullpen are the fewest in the league. Derek Johnson has more than proven his worth over the past two seasons in the Queen City, but he’s not a magician.

Prediction

Losers of six of their last seven, the challenge does not get any easier for the Cincinnati Reds. The prospect of facing Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg is the last thing this team needs, but that’s exactly what’s staring them in the face.

Next. 5 Reds prospects poised to join next year's rotation

Unfortunately, the Reds tailspin will continue as the Nationals take two of three and leave the Redlegs fighting for their lives before Memorial Day arrives as they visit the Windy City to battle the Chicago Cubs over the holiday weekend.

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