Reds: 5 prospects who could open 2022 in the starting rotation

The Cincinnati Reds starting rotation is in shambles. After being the team’s biggest strength last season, the Reds’ starting staff has emerged as Cincinnati’s biggest weakness in 2021. But there is hope, as these three young arms are likely to find their way into the rotation by Opening Day in 2022.

Based on what we’ve seen this season, I think it’s safe to say that the Reds starting rotation heading into 2022 will look quite different from the quintet of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Wade Miley, José De León, and Jeff Hoffman. In fact, the Reds could see an entirely different starting rotation next season.

Gray and Castillo were rumored to be on the trade block this past winter, and both could be on their way out of town before next spring. Miley has a $10M team-option heading into the offseason. Hoffman has looked atrocious of late and is arbitration eligible following the 2021 season. And De León is currently licking his wounds in Triple-A.

So, if the Cincinnati Reds do indeed part with all five of this year’s starting pitchers, who among the team’s farm system is most likely to supplant the aforementioned pitchers? Let’s take a look at the five most likely candidates.

1. Nick Lodolo, Reds left-handed pitcher

Nick Lodolo is one of the Cincinnati Reds best young pitching prospects. He’s ranked No. 1 by MLB Pipeline, and is considered the 47th best prospect in all of baseball. Lodolo could be that dominant left-handed pitcher that the Cincinnati faithful have been waiting for.

Lodolo has a good three-pitch mix and sits in the low-to-mid 90s. An advanced arm coming out of Texas Christian University, Lodolo is known for his command of the strike zone. The southpaw was the No. 7 overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft.

Lodolo is currently dominating Double-A, taking home Player of the Week honors for his seven-inning performance last week. Lodolo is likely to make his way to Triple-A Louisville by midseason and may even see September call-up if he continues to mow down opposing batters. Nick Lodolo will almost certainly be part of the Reds rotation in 2022.

3. Tony Santillan, Reds right-handed pitcher

Tony Santillan has been among the Cincinnati Reds’ top pitching for several years now. Santillan showed his mettle in 2018 with Double-A Pensacola, but regressed in 2019 when he made the leap to Triple-A Louisville.

However, this season, Santillan has looked very good in his stint with the Louisville Bats. The right-hander is 1-1 this season with a 1.86 ERA, 10.87 K/9, and 29.5% strikeout-rate. Some more consistent performances may seen Santillan gain a call-up to the big leagues this season.

Santillan has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a plus slider. An impressive frame (6-foot-3, 240-pounds) leads some scouts to believe Tony Santillan will end up in the bullpen, but the Reds front office appears bullish on their desire to insert the Texas native into the starting rotation.

Santillan is not considered a frontline starter, but the power-pitcher could be a middle-of-the-rotation starter if he’s able to develop his changeup. The hope is that the right-hander continues to pitch well in the minors this season and handles the rigors of Triple-A competition before finding his way up to the big leagues.

Cincinnati added Santillan to the team’s 40-man roster this past winter, so there’s obviously a desire to keep him in the organization. After several years of impressive work in the minors, this becomes a make or break year for the 24-year-old. So far, he’s making the most of his chances and looks like a solid choice to join the rotation sooner rather than later.

4. Vladimir Gutierrez, Reds right-handed pitcher

After being suspended for the entire 2020 season and the first 18 games of the 2021 season, Vladimir Gutierrez is back. The right-hander was part of Cincinnati’s 2016 international class, and he looks poised to make it in the big leagues.

In all likelihood, Gutierrez may receive a call in the coming days to be Cincinnati’s replacement starter for the injured Wade Miley. While David Bell has touted the positive attributes of Tony Santillan and José De León, Gutierrez has been the organization’s best pitcher at Triple-A Louisville.

Gutierrez owns a 31.3% K-rate and 11.12 K/9 according to FanGraphs. Much like Santillan, Gutierrez has been part of the Reds farm system for some time now, and the front office has been waiting for the 25-year-old to take that next step.

Many scouts believe Vladimir Gutierrez has the best curveball of any prospect within Cincinnati’s minor league ranks. That pitch, along with a plus-fastball and average changeup might be enough to find Gutierrez a home on the back-end of the Reds rotation.

Gutierrez may be one of the most intriguing names on this list of young hurlers, as he has the potential to be incredibly good, or fizzle out quickly. This boom or bust type of makeup could be very rewarding for a club that’s stuck with Gutierrez through a rough patch and a bout of PED use. Cincinnati’s hoping their persistence pays off.

5. Lyon Richardson, Reds right-handed pitcher

The Cincinnati Reds best young player you’ve never heard of is probably Lyon Richardson. It’s odd that we don’t hear more about the 21-year-old, as he was the team’s second-round pick in 2018. However, Richardson has been mostly under-the-radar during his brief professional career, and the cancellation of last year’s minor league season is likely a big reason why.

Richardson’s 2021 season has gotten off to a roaring start. He’s 1-1 in four starts in Advanced-A Dayton and owns a 1.10 ERA with a 9.92 K/9 and a 25.7% strikeout-rate. Richardson has allowed just 13 hits in 70 at-bats against him and only two runs have crossed the plate in 16.1 innings of work.

Of all the prospects listed, Lyon Richardson has the tallest mountain to climb, as he’s currently playing for the High-A Dayton Dragons. However, if he continues his current pace, the Reds front office will have no choice to elevate the right-hander to Double-A Chattanooga.

Richardson has a four-pitch repertoire, though at times, his curveball and slider can overlap one another. The key to unlocking Richardson’s potential is an increase in velocity and better command of his breaking pitches. Richardson has an opportunity to be the talk of Cincinnati’s farm system this season, and an impressive 2021 season may put him in line to start for the big league squad in 2022.