Reds vs. Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds look to find some consistency as they visit the Steel City.

It was an interesting week in Reds Country, to say the least. Due to an odd scheduling quirk that gave the club two off days and a rainout, the Cincinnati Reds went 2-2 last week. However, the oddities began as the previous week was ending.

Going back to Sunday, May 2nd, the Reds (15-16) had to hit five homers and scored 13 runs to outlast the Chicago Cubs in extra innings. Fast forward to Wednesday afternoon, the Redlegs won again in extras; however, the run they plated in the bottom of the 10th would be the lone run scored in a 1-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox.

Without a doubt, the most memorable game of the week proved to be Friday night in Cleveland as Wade Miley tossed the 17th no-hitter in franchise history. Unfortunately, if there was one constant last week, it was Cincinnati’s inability to dent the plate.

The Reds scored a total of six runs in four contests. Additionally, the Redlegs scored three runs or less in each game and have failed to score more than three times in five of their last six. Needless to say, the offense is struggling.

Over their last 11 games, the Reds have scored only 42 runs, half of those coming in two games, and produced a paltry .220/.298/.363 slash line. In addition, they’ve drawn 33 free passes while striking out an astounding 108 times. Perhaps the sight of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff will breathe some life into the Reds’ bats.

Earlier the season, Cincinnati swept a three-game set from the Bucs and outscored them by an astonishingly 30-8 margin. To call it a complete dismantling of the Pirates would be an understatement.

Yesterday the Pirates (14-19) snapped a three-game slide by taking the final game of a weekend set at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Currently occupying the basement of the National League Central, Pittsburgh has dropped eight of their last 10 contests.

Since 2011 the Reds and Pirates have played to a near draw, with the Redlegs holding a slight 91-88 advantage. However, PNC Park has not been a welcoming stop on Cincinnati road trips. Pittsburgh owns a 48-41 mark against the Reds over the last decade in the Steel City, with the Reds collecting just one series victory at PNC Park in their last eight attempts.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

Tyler Mahle (1-1 3.23 ERA) gets the nod in the series opener, squaring off against Mitch Keller (2-3 6.29 ERA) of the Pirates. The Cincinnati right-hander is looking to bounce back following an uncustomary poor outing at the hands of the Chicago Cubs, but PNC Park is the perfect antidote for Mahle.

In his four starts in the Steel City, Mahle has allowed just five runs and two walks in 21.2 innings of work. During his last two appearances in Pittsburgh, Mahle has tossed 11 frames of shutout baseball, fanning 10 Pirates without yielding a walk. Let’s hope for a similar performance tonight.

Bucs’ right-hander Mitch Keller has created many of his own problems this season. The 25-year-old hurler has issued 15 free passes in only 24.1 innings. Needless to say, don’t expect Keller to go deep into tonight’s game. In half of his six starts, he’s failed to escape the fourth inning.

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Tuesday night, Reds manager David Bell will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (2-2 4.39 ERA), who’s in desperate need of a good start. Pittsburgh will counter with JT Brubaker (2-2 2.78 ERA), who has established himself as the staff’s ace.

There’s no way to say it gently; the last two outings from Hoffman have been poor. Totaling just 6.1 frames, the right-hander has been tattooed for two homers and seven runs. To make matters worse, Hoffman has not helped his cause by walking seven. He must turn his recent performances around to remain a viable option for the starting rotation.

Right-hander JT Brubaker has been mowing down opponents as of late. Over his last 23 innings, he’s whiffed 27 against only three bases on balls. However, don’t tell Reds slugger Nick Castellanos. The Cincinnati right fielder is 3-for-6 with a double lifetime versus the Pirates starter.

Wednesday’s matinee series finale will star Sonny Gray (0-2 3.92 ERA) battling veteran Trevor Cahill (1-4 6.75 ERA) of the Bucs. How good has Gray been in his last two starts? One word would be sensational.

Facing two of the best teams in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox, Gray has surrendered just two runs on six hits over 12.2 innings while fanning 19 opposing hitters. As for the Pirates, look for them to have a long afternoon.

Trevor Cahill would rather forget his last outing versus Cincinnati. The Reds erupted for nine hits, seven runs, and four round-trippers in only four innings. Honestly, the 35-year-old Cahill is pitching for his major league life as he’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his six starts this season.

What a night for Reds starter Wade Miley.

I would be remiss not to mention one of the most memorable nights Wade Miley has given me in my 40-plus years of Reds fandom. It was a historic night from one of the unlikeliest of sources, but that’s baseball.

Entering his 11th year in the majors and playing for this seventh franchise, Wade Miley has made a career of being steady but never spectacular. A lifetime 89-87 record with a 4.18 ERA will never garner a $100M contract, but it will keep you employed and provide opportunities such as the one he had last Friday night.

That’s not to say Miley’s career is without highlights. He’s been to an All-Star game and in 2012 finished second in the Rookie of Year balloting. He’s been on five teams that advanced to the postseason and has surrendered just four earned runs in 17.1 October innings.

However, when you think of guys likely to toss a no-hitter, Miley is pretty far down the list. He’s never going to light up the radar gun, and for his career, he’s allowed 9.2 hits per nine innings of work. But for one cold night in Cleveland, none of that mattered as Miley wrote his name into the history books and carved himself out a bit of legendary status in the Queen City.

Prediction

If the Cincinnati Reds are to be taken as serious contenders, this is the type of series they must take care of business. The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently in last place, and, to be honest, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them stay there for the rest of the season.

The talent discrepancy between the two rosters is vast. Look for the Reds to take two of three from the Bucs and get back to .500 as they prepare to head for the mountains and begin a four-game weekend set with the lowly Colorado Rockies.