Reds vs. Indians: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The final series in the Reds’ quest for the Ohio Cup moves to Cleveland.

Somehow the Cincinnati Reds (14-15) split their brief two-game set with the Chicago White Sox despite being outscored 9-1 in the series. Unfortunately, the Redlegs inability to consistently score runs is becoming a trend.

Don’t let the numbers fool you. The Cincinnati offense cannot be trusted on a nightly basis. Even though the Reds lead the National League averaging 5.4 runs a contest, the runs tend to come in bunches.

Cincinnati has already scored more the 10 runs in a game six times through their first 29 contests. However, the Reds offense has also been blanked five times and failed to score more than two runs in three of their last four games.

Beginning today, Cincinnati embarks on a 10-game road trip that will force their meager offensive road numbers to make a major leap to fend off disaster. Through their first 12 games as visitors, the Reds offense has simply not shown up.

Producing a slash line of .202/.267/.333, the Redlegs have rightfully earned their poor 4-8 road mark. Being without the services of Joey Votto will not help. The legendary first baseman broke his left thumb in Wednesday’s victory over the White Sox and is expected to miss several weeks.

This road trip is a pivotal early-season test for the Cincinnati Reds as they sit just 2.5 games back in a competitive National League Central. With seven of the 10 games against last-place clubs in the Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies, this could be one of the rare trips where Cincinnati returns home in better shape than they left it.

Before Cincinnati sets its sights on the cellar dwellers, they will face the hottest team in baseball in the Cleveland Indians. Winners of five straight and eight of their last 10, the Indians (17-13) have vaulted into first place in the American League Central a half-game in front of the White Sox.

Following the Reds taking the first series between the two clubs last month at Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati has the opportunity to claim their first outright Ohio Cup victory since the 2014 season. However, the Redlegs will need to re-write history as they are just 23-37 when visiting Northeast Ohio.

The Tribe offense lives and dies with the long ball.

Entering play today, the Indians 40 homers are good enough for third-most in the American League. However, the power has not been dispersed throughout much of the lineup. The trio of Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, and Jordan Luplow account for 23 of those 40 round-trippers. As a whole, the Tribe offense doesn’t string together many hits and struggles to reach base.

As play got underway yesterday, their .209 team batting average ranks 13th among junior circuit squads, while their .289 on-base percentage comes in a lowly 12th position in the American League. As usual, third baseman Jose Ramirez has been the one consistent offensive threat.

Slashing .279/.374/.596 with nine homers and 18 RBIs, the switch-hitter has drawn15 walks while only going down on strikes 13 times. He’s also swiped four bases in as many attempts. There’s nothing on the field he can’t do.

Don’t be surprised if runs are hard to come by this weekend as the 211 hits allowed by the Cleveland pitching staff are the third-fewest in the AL. Additionally, the Tribe’s pitching staff has completely dismantled left-handed hitting.

Lefties are slashing an anemic .208/.292/.340 as of yesterday against Cleveland pitching. In addition, it would be in the Cincinnati Reds’ best interest to score early and often as the Indians bullpen has been fantastic.

Cleveland manager Terry Francona’s late-inning four-headed monster has overwhelmed the opposition. The quartet of Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Cal Quantrill, and Bryan Shaw has allowed just eight earned runs in 56.2 innings.

Right-hander James Karinchak has been particularly devastating. Tossing 14 frames, he has a staggering 29 punch outs against two free passes. Only starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie have fanned more hitters than the 25-year-old Karinchak on the Tribe staff.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Indians

Left-hander Wade Miley (3-2 2.67 ERA) gets the call in game one opposing Zach Plesac (2-3 4.78 ERA) of the Indians. It’s safe to say Miley is looking for a better showing against Cleveland than their previous matchup last month in Cincinnati.

Easily his worst start of the 2021 season, the Reds’ left-hander allowed four runs on five hits in five innings of work, including two home runs as both Jose Ramirez and Roberto Perez took Miley deep. Look for Terry Francona to feature a heavily right-handed lineup against the Cincinnati southpaw.

Miley has allowed only one hit in 14 at-bats versus lefties this year. Interestingly, catcher Tucker Barnhart has been behind the dish for each of Miley’s starts this year. Don’t expect to see Reds manager David Bell breaking up this tandem anytime soon.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds vs. White Sox: Pitching preview, prediction, and more
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin adds another twist to offseason roster construction
• Reds: Signing Tyler Mahle to a contract extension should be a top priority
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin should get first major league start vs Pirates
• Reds should unquestionably bring Wade Miley back in 2022

Cleveland right-hander Zach Plesac has been treated rudely in his two starts against the Redlegs. Taking the loss in both outings, Plesac has allowed five home runs in 12.1 frames versus Cincinnati batters. Luckily for Plesac, he won’t have to face Joey Votto, who has left the yard twice in their four encounters.

Luis Castillo (1-3 6.07 ERA), who has continued to struggle, will go tomorrow night, while Terry Francona counters with Aaron Civale (4-0 3.20 ER). The 2021 season has been a nightmare thus far for La Piedra, with only one quality start to his credit in six opportunities.

Even though his first-inning issues have been well documented, there are other concerning numbers to keep Reds Country up at night regarding Castillo. His once devastating change-up has not been nearly as effective this year.

According to FanGraphs, Castillo is throwing his change-up a career-high 39% of the time despite losing more than a mile per hour (88.4 compared to 87.3) in velocity from last year. Good fortune has not been Castillo’s friend as well. Hitters are making contact 68.8% of the time when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone against La Piedra compared to the 51.8% MLB average per Fangraphs.

Cleveland’s Aaron Civale will be making his first career start against the Reds. If the Redlegs are to have success against Civale, getting to him early is the key. The Clevland right-hander has been touched for 10 runs and 18 hits through the first three innings while holding opponents to a combined five runs and 11 hits once the middle frames begin in six appearances this season.

Sunday’s series finale matinee will feature Tyler Mahle (1-1 3.23 ERA) squaring off against Sam Hentges (1-0 5.00 ERA), making his first MLB start. Mahle’s last trip to the mound was far and away, his worst start of the young season.

Lasting just five innings in what essentially amounted to a home run derby, he was rocked for nine hits and three home runs in Cincinnati’s eventual 13-12 extra-inning victory last Sunday against the Cubs. That was not the version of Tyler Mahle Reds Country has become accustomed to seeing.

Let’s hope this start goes better than the right-hander’s last trip to Cleveland.  The Indians chased Mahle in the third inning after surrendering seven runs, five earned, in 19-4 drubbing at the hands of the Tribe. How bad was it? Alex Blandino was the only Cincinnati “pitcher” unscored upon that day.

Southpaw Matt Hentges’ heart will be racing Sunday, as he makes his first start in the big leagues. Tossing nine innings in relief this year, he’s been taken deep four times by right-handed hitters. Look for David Bell to load the lineup with righties for the series finale.