Reds vs. Dodgers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – APRIL 18: Nick Castellanos #2 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after striking out. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Reds meet their greatest challenge yet as they visit Dodger Stadium.

The cliche goes something like this – what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. If that’s to be believed, the Cincinnati Reds (9-12) will return to the Queen City following their trip to Hollywood with Herculean strength.

Whether it was the bullpen during the Arizona series or the lack of offense and less than stellar performances from Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo versus St. Louis, this club is in complete free-fall. Flying to Los Angeles will provide absolutely no comfort at all.

Cincinnati is just 2-7 through their first nine road contests and has been blanked three times. The horrible road record has been justifiably earned as the Reds have been outscored 42-24 away from Great American Ball Park.

As a surprise to absolutely nobody, the Los Angeles Dodgers (15-7) enter play Monday night sitting in first-place in the National League West. Los Angeles has won a remarkable eight consecutive division crowns and hasn’t finished lower than second-place since the 2011 season. In other words, it’s business as usual for manager David Roberts’ squad.

Since 2013 the Dodgers have advanced to the NLCS five times and captured the pennant three times. Interestingly, two of the Dodgers’ last three championship seasons have occurred during years in which a full 162 game schedule wasn’t completed. Los Angeles captured the 1981 title during a player’s strike-shortened season and last year’s COVID pandemic-riddled campaign.

Throughout their long and storied history, the Reds have faced the Dodgers more than any other opponent. Even though the series does not carry the same electric atmosphere of past decades, it’s always exciting when the longtime rivals meet.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – MARCH 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers runs to first base on a ground ball. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

The Reds can’t buy a break with a visit to the World Champs.

When you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, the world simply is not enough. After claiming their first World Series title since 1988, the team refused to sit idle this winter and simply roll out the same roster for the 2021 campaign.

How does one improve a championship club? Why not sign the 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner to strengthen an already lethal starting rotation. Reds Country might remember that pitcher who inked a deal worthy of a convoy of Brinks trucks.

Said hurler, Trevor Bauer, has not disappointed since departing the land of Skyline Chili. Bauer is 3-0 with 2.53 ERA through his first five starts while fanning 45 in 32 innings. In other words, the dominant Trevor Bauer of 2020 is the same guy this year.

Entering play Sunday, the LA pitching staff ranks second in the National League with a team ERA of 2.85 while also occupying the runner-up position, recording 209 punch outs. As a team, the Dodgers have already recorded five shutouts, tied for the most in the senior circuit.

LA hurlers have limited opponents to an anemic .209/.269/.330 slash line. This hardly bodes well for a Cincinnati club that is slashing an embarrassing .198/.259/.331 away from Great American Ball Park beginning play on Sunday.

However, it’s not all about the pitching when it comes to the Dodgers. Their .342 o-base percentage is setting the pace in the league. Currently, LA has only one regular left fielder, AJ Pollock, with an OBP of less than .352. The Dodgers are a testament to the importance of getting on base.

Third baseman Justin Turner is off to a sensational start and leads the Dodgers in nearly every offensive category. Beginning play Sunday, Turner is slashing .356/.435/.658 with a team-leading five homers and 17 RBIs. Not a bad start for the former seventh-round draft pick of the Redlegs. Sigh.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 14: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Dodgers

Tyler Mahle (1-1 1.74 ERA) has passed every challenge in 2021 with flying colors, but he’ll face his toughest test yet against the Dodgers in the series opener tonight. Left-hander Julio Urias (3-0 2.81 ERA) will oppose the Reds right-hander.

In three career starts against the Dodgers, Mahle has been kryptonite for LA hitters. The California native is 2-1 with an outstanding 2.12 ERA covering 17 frames. The 26-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in the league to this point in the young season.

He currently sits fifth in the senior circuit with a 1.74 ERA, and the nine hits he’s allowed are the second-fewest among all NL hurlers who have tossed at least 20 innings. That will do, Tyler. That will do.

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Urias has been spectacular to begin the 2021 campaign. Throwing 25.2 innings, he’s whiffed 26 against only four free passes. Just how good is the 24-year-old Mexican? He’s coming off an 11 strikeout, seven shutout inning performance versus the Seattle Mariners. By the way, he surrendered just one base hit as well.

Right-hander Jeff Hoffman (2-1 2.66 ERA) takes the mound Tuesday night, squaring off against fellow righty Walker Buehler (1-0 2.16 ERA) of the Dodgers. To this point, Hoffman has been a revelation for Reds manager David Bell.

Hoffman has surrendered just two gopher balls in his four starts covering 20.1 innings. It may be an extremely small sample size, but the one member of the Dodgers who Hoffman will have to tread carefully around is Mookie Betts.

Los Angeles’ perennial MVP candidate has homered in both his career at-bats versus Hoffman. There’s no shame in giving up a dinger to Betts, but if the game is on the line, there is no way David Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson can allow Hoffman to face him.

If you thought Julio Urias exhibits pinpoint control, Walker Buehler makes him look like Charlie Sheen’s Ricky Vaughn character from Major League. The former first-round selection from Vanderbilt has issued one walk in 25 innings. One!

Wednesday’s afternoon matinee series finale at Chavez Ravine will feature Sonny Gray (0-1 7.88 ERA) battling Dodger legend Clayton Kershaw (3-2 2.56 ERA). It’s been a tough start to 2021 for Reds ace Sonny Gray.

Since returning to the active roster following a stint on the IL with back issues, the right-hander has been far from his normally sharp self. In only eight frames, he’s allowed astonishingly 17 batters to reach base via a hit or walk. This is not the Sonny Gray Reds Country is accustomed to seeing.

What else can be said about Clayton Kershaw? Eight-time All-Star, five-time ERA champ, three-time Cy Young Award winner, MVP, and now a World Champion. The day he decides to retire, it will start the five-year clock until he’s voted into Cooperstown to take his rightful place among the greats of the game.

Lifetime Kershaw is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA in 11 starts against Cincinnati. If Reds Country wants to dream about what might have been, the southpaw was selected one pick ahead of Drew Stubbs in the 2006 draft. It’s alright to cry.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – APRIL 22: Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds drops the ball. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

A seven-game slide has erased the Reds solid start.

Reds Country is accustomed to seeing their team try to claw their way back from dreadful opening weeks to start the season. The 2021 edition of the Reds has flipped the script, but unfortunately, not in a good way.

A week ago, the Reds sat atop the National League Central with a 9-6 record as they welcomed a less than intimidating Arizona Diamondbacks club to GABP. Following those three games and a trip to St. Louis, the Reds find themselves saddled with seven consecutive losses and in the division’s basement.

If there’s one positive to take away from the Cardinals series is that the Reds bullpen has seemingly pulled themselves from the brink. Over the weekend in the Gateway City, Cincinnati relievers allowed just one run and one free pass in 9.1 innings of work.

Kudos to the newest Redleg Heath Hembree. The veteran reliever made his Reds debut Friday night and tossed 2.1 innings of shutout baseball in two appearances. His presence has been a welcomed sight to a beleaguered relief corps.

However, the bats, once again, failed to travel. Cincinnati scored just six runs against an incredibly average St. Louis pitching staff and suffered a shutout loss on Saturday. The Reds have scored three runs or less a staggering six times through their first nine road games.

Prediction

Honestly, I cannot find a conceivable way to pick the Reds to win this series. Since 2012 the Redlegs have captured just one series in Hollywood and been swept three times. Cincinnati is 8-19 over that timespan at Dodger Stadium.

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However, I do expect the losing streak to come to an end. Somehow, someway, I look for the Reds to take one game in Los Angeles as they return to Cincinnati for a brief five-game homestand against both the Chicago Cubs and White Sox.

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