Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds head out West attempting to salvage a difficult week.

Following a disastrous return to Great American Ball Park, which saw the Cincinnati Reds (9-9) drop the final four games of a six-game homestand, manager David Bell is left trying to determine the true identity of this team.

It’s difficult to recall a series that shook the confidence of Reds Country more than the Arizona Diamondbacks’ visit to the Queen City. Keep in mind, this is a bad D-backs squad who will be lucky to avoid the cellar in the National League West.

Somehow Cincinnati found new and excruciating ways to lose each of the three contests against Arizona. Which defeat was the most painful? Let’s examine that question.

Cincinnati took a 4-3 lead into the 8th inning of the series opener, only to be greeted with sleet and a snowstorm, which completely disabled the Reds pitching staff from gripping the baseball. Amazingly the inept umpiring crew found no issue with the weather and allowed the game to continue under incredibly unsafe conditions.

Consequently, after Reds hurlers were done walking and hitting almost every Arizona hitter that stepped to the plate, the Redlegs suddenly found themselves facing a 5-4 deficit. Eventually, it took Cincinnati reliever Lucas Sims to toss out every ball handed to him by the home plate umpire to bring the game to a halt.

The game was finally suspended, but the damage had been done. When the game resumed the following day, the Reds could not plate a run and lost a game played under completely avoidable conditions.

The second game versus the D-backs saw Tyler Mahle toss a brilliant game enabling the Reds to take a 3-0 lead entering the 9th inning. David Bell summoned Amir Garrett to the mound to close the game out, and you know the rest.

By the time Garret was removed after facing four batters, the game was tied, and the Reds would lose by a score of 8-5 in extra innings. But wait, unfortunately, there’s one more agonizing game to revisit.

Right-hander Jeff Hoffman turned in another solid performance before handing the game off to the Reds bullpen, who treated the Arizona lineup as if they were facing the 1927 Bronx Bombers.

Despite battling back from 4-1 and 8-4 deficits, the 11 runs the Reds scored yesterday were not enough. In five innings of complete meltdown mode, the relief corps was scored upon 12 times while allowing seven walks and two home runs. Ugly doesn’t even begin to describe the scene.

As a result, the Cincinnati Reds are limping into the Gateway City to play a St. Louis Cardinals (8-10) club, who have had their fair share of underwhelming performances to start the 2021 campaign. After dropping seven of their last 10 games, the Redbirds currently occupy the basement of the National League Central.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cardinals.

Sonny Gray (0-0 4.15 ERA) makes his second start of the season opposing Kwang Hyun Kim (0-0 9.00 ERA) in Friday night’s opener. As expected, Gray was rusty in his 2021 debut. Tossing 4.1 innings against the Indians, the Gray allowed two runs on six hits but did record a half dozen punch outs while throwing 71 pitches. Expect to see Sonny go deeper into the game this evening.

Over his last 23.1 innings versus St. Louis, Gray has not surrendered a home run. If there’s one Cardinal, the Vanderbilt alum can’t wait to see step into the box; it’s Paul Goldschmidt. The slugging first baseman is hitless in a dozen at-bats in their encounters.

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Left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim will also be making his second start of the young campaign. Let’s hope the Reds don’t see the same Kim they saw last year. In two starts against the Redlegs, he threw 11 shutout innings while earning victories in both games.

Southpaw Wade Miley (2-1 2.25 ERA) takes the mound Saturday afternoon, squaring off against John Gant (0-2 3.21). Miley has been excellent to begin his second year in the Queen City. Tossing 16 frames, he’s been touched for just nine hits and has fanned 14 against only three walks.

In recent years the Cajun has found Busch Stadium to his liking. Over his last 15 innings pitching in the shadow of the Arch, he’s yielded four earned runs with 16 strikeouts. For his career, Miley is 2-3 with an excellent 3.18 ERA in five starts in St. Louis.

It’s been a strange season so far for John Gant. Even though his ERA is superb and he’s allowed just one gopher ball, he’s also walked 11 in 14 innings. However, control problems have always been an issue for Gant.

During his six-year career, the right-hander has allowed 4.6 free passes per nine innings. One Redleg Gant has handled with ease is Eugenio Suarez. Geno is hitless with four strikeouts in nine at-bats in their battles.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will star Luis Castillo (1-1 6.05 ERA) toeing the rubber opposite Jack Flaherty (3-0 3.80) in a rematch of their Opening Day meeting. We can only hope it goes better for the Cincinnati right-hander.

Before the Reds stepped in the batter’s box to start the 2021 season, they were already facing a six-run deficit. Unfortunately, catastrophic opening innings have been a recurring problem for La Piedra.

In his four starts, Castillo has absolutely buried the Reds in the opening frame. He’s been knocked around for 10 earned runs and 12 hits. Interestingly the only other inning in which La Piedra has given up a run is the fourth. Perhaps pitching coach, Derek Johnson needs to whisper in his ear it’s the second inning as he takes the mound.

Before Cardinals fans gloat too much over Castillo’s Opening Day start, Jack Flaherty was far from sharp. Despite being handed a six-run advantage, the right-hander could not escape the fifth inning and failed to earn what should have been an easy victory.

Eugenio Suarez might struggle mightily versus John Gant, but the same cannot be said for Flaherty. The slugging shortstop has taken the St. Louis Cardinals ace deep three times in 15 career at-bats.

The Reds’ bullpen has been an embarrassment.

First things first, as Reds Country knows, the bullpen was a huge question mark entering the season. When you trade a reliable closer in Raisel Iglesias for what amounts to a salary dump and decide to not tender a contract to relief pitcher Archie Bradley, who has ample late-inning experience, you’re playing with fire.

To this point in the season, the Cincinnati Reds haven’t been burned; they’ve been incinerated. Don’t blame manager David Bell; he has to have more than Tejay Antone to call upon without inviting a pyromaniac episode.

Using the last three days versus the Arizona Diamondbacks as an example, the Reds fireman set Great American Ball Park ablaze. Hurling 13.1 innings, the bullpen was torched for 22 runs, 16 hits, 15 walks, and five homers. It’s unfathomable that a collection of major league pitchers could be this horrendous, but here we are.

Where does David Bell turn? Your guess is as good as mine. However, what I do know is that Reds General Manager Nick Krall has to find some arms immediately to give his skipper a fighting chance late in the game.

Prediction

To call Busch Stadium a house of horrors for the Reds would be an insult to haunted houses. Since the latest Busch Stadium opened in 2006, Cincinnati is a ridiculous 45-81 against the Cardinals in on the road. You read that right; the Reds are 36 games under .500. in St. Louis over the past 15 seasons.

Despite the train-wreck of the Diamondbacks series and the Reds history in the Gateway City, look for the Redlegs to escape with two victories this weekend before departing for Hollywood and a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers.