Reds vs. Diamondbacks: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – APRIL 17: Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates after hitting a single. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Home is where the victories have been for the Reds this season.

There’s no place like home for the Cincinnati Reds. After taking two of three from the Cleveland Indians this past weekend, the Reds (9-6) now find themselves with a 7-2 record at Great American Ball Park and are still sitting atop the National League Central Division.

Despite delivering a 10 run shellacking to the Tribe in the series opener, runs were hard to come by over the weekend against an excellent Cleveland pitching staff. The Redlegs were able to dent the dish just three times in both the final two games of the series and the struggle to score runs appears to be a trend.

Over their past nine games, the Reds have scored more than three runs just three times. A plethora of Reds players have seen their bats grow ice-cold, beginning with their April 9th road trip to Arizona.

The quartet of Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Nick Senzel, and Eugenio Suarez is hitting just .175 with seven extra-base hits in nine contests. As a team, Cincinnati has produced a paltry slash line of .226/.290/.380 over that timespan and bringing back painful memories of the dismal 2020 offense.

It’s yet another road series for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Through their first 16 games, the D-backs (6-10) have played only five games at Chase Field. Unfortunately for Arizona, the road has not been kind to them.

The Diamondbacks are 4-7 on the road this season and are already trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by seven games in a brutally tough National League West. Losers of four of their last six contests, the D-backs already find themselves on the precipice of being out of contention by the end of April.

However, history may be on the Diamondbacks’ side this week. Lifetime Arizona is 40-36 when visiting the Queen City. Since 2015 the D-backs are 10-6 at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati holds the distinction of being one of two visiting NL cities, with Pittsburgh being the other, where the Diamondbacks have a winning record.

Interestingly enough, this will be the last time the D-backs and Reds will face each other this season. Arizona took two of three from the Redlegs earlier this month in Phoenix, and when Thursday afternoon’s contest is completed, the two teams will not see each until the 2022 campaign.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 01: Tim Locastro #16 of the Arizona Diamondbacks misses a catch. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Injuries threaten to upend the D-backs season.

Chances are Arizona manager Torey Lovullo is not going to blame injuries for his team’s slow start, but there’s no denying the Diamondbacks are playing at less than full strength. The D-backs squad that takes the field in Cincinnati will be missing four integral parts of their roster.

Centerfielder Ketel Marte, the club’s best player, remains sidelined with a right hamstring injury. Even though he’s eligible to be activated, he’s just now hitting off a tee and doing some light running. As a result, it’s implausible he’ll play this series.

Marte’s replacement in centerfield, Tim Locastro, will join him on the shelf due to a jammed finger. To add salt to Locastro’s wound, he injured himself when he was caught stealing against the Washington Nationals. It snapped an MLB record of 29 successful stolen base attempts to begin a career.

First baseman Christian Walker also took his place on the IL on April 12th due to a strained oblique. As Reds Country knows all too well, oblique injuries can be wildly unpredictable. Finally, veteran reliever and free-agent acquisition Joakim Soria appeared in just one game before succumbing to a calf injury; however, his return, much to the delight of the D-backs, seems imminent.

Entering play today, the Diamondbacks are a below-average team across the board. Their offensive slash line of .223/.311/.388 sits below the .233/.315/.393 NL average. Currently, second baseman Eduardo Escobar leads the club with six homers and 11 RBIs.

Surrendering the long ball has been an issue for Arizona hurlers. The 24 homers they’ve surrendered equals the total of gopher balls given up by Reds pitching for the most in the senior circuit. The 5.19 runs allowed per game are tied for the second-worst mark in the league as well.

The starting rotation has been the biggest issue for D-backs pitching coach Matt Herges. Diamondback starters have allowed 25 bases on balls and 90 hits in just 81.1 innings. Needless to say, the basepaths have been busy early and often against Arizona pitching.

CINCINNATI, OH – APRIL 4: Jeff Hoffman #23 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Diamondbacks

Luis Castillo (1-1 7.04 ERA) will oppose Arizona’s Zac Gallen (0-0 2.25 ERA) in tonight’s opener. It’s been a tough April for Castillo, and historically, that’s been the case as far as La Piedra is concerned.

His career 4.53 ERA in March/April is his highest of any month, and if history repeats itself, it could be a long night for Castillo. The Diamondbacks have rocked the Reds’ ace during their past five meetings.

Castillo is just 1-4 with an ugly 5.22 ERA in those five starts. Don’t be surprised to see catcher Stephen Vogt get the start in the opener for the D-backs. The left-handed-hitting slugger is 3-for-6 lifetime versus La Piedra with a double and two free passes.

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Gallen will be making his second start of the season following an impressive one-run and eight strikeout performance over four frames against Oakland. This will be just his second career start versus the Reds. Cincinnati roughed the right-hander up for three runs in 5.2 innings as Eugenio Suarez took the 25-year-old deep twice in a September 2019 meeting.

For the middle of the three-game set, Tyler Mahle (1-1 2.57 ERA) gets the call against veteran Merrill Kelly (1-2 8.44 ERA) of the D-backs. Mahle has been nothing short of sensational this year. Tossing 14 innings, the right-hander has allowed just seven hits while fanning 22 opposing hitters.

Mahle failed to yield a hit to the Diamondbacks in their earlier meeting this month but was lifted after allowing four walks and throwing 92 pitches in only four frames. Over his last 13 appearances dating back to last year, Mahle has a 3.36 ERA in 61.1 innings with 82 punch outs. He’s becoming an excellent starting pitching right before our eyes.

It’s been tough going for Merrill Kelly to open the 2021 season. The 32-year-old right-hander has allowed a staggering 23 hits and 15 earned runs in 16 innings of work. He’s faced the Redlegs just once, tossing seven shutout innings during a September 2019 start at Chase Field.

Thursday’s matinee will feature Jeff Hoffman (2-1 2.93 ERA) in the starring role as he battles the Diamondbacks Taylor Widener (1-0 1.59 ERA). Hoffman has been fantastic in his two starts at GABP this season.

In 11 innings, Hoffman has surrendered just two runs and has fanned 10 in winning his two outings. His only less than stellar performance in 2021 came against these very same D-backs who broke through for six hits and three runs in 4.1 frames during an April 10th start. This seems like the perfect opportunity to exact some revenge.

Speaking of impressive numbers to start the season, Taylor Widener has tossed shutout baseball in two of three starts. Only the Reds have been able to cross the plate against the right-hander touching him for four runs, three earned, in a five-inning stint on April 9th.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – APRIL 18: Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a double. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Reds first baseman, Joey Votto, still bangs…and turns triple plays.

It was only a matter of time before the hits started coming. Joey Votto has been smoking the ball hard all season, as evidenced by his 10.9% barrels/plate appearance rate, which places him 10th in all of baseball, according to Statcast. It basically means Votto is crushing the ball as much as anyone in the game.

Votto became the first Reds player since San Francisco’s Oracle Park opened in 2000 to send a home run ball out of the stadium and into McCovey Cove for a splash shot. It was just the beginning of an exciting week for the Cincinnati Reds legend.

During the six-game stretch, Votto slashed an otherworldly .435/.480/.957 with three round-trippers and 7 RBIs. If that wasn’t enough, his improbable triple play in the 8th inning of Saturday’s game versus the Indians kept the Redlegs within a run and completely bailed Amir Garrett out of a world of trouble, and set the stage for Cincinnati’s eventual come from behind walk-off win in extras.

One Redleg not making solid contact is shortstop Eugenio Suarez. The former All-Star third baseman has struggled mightily at the plate and in the field. His 85.4 MPH exit velocity ranks seventh among Cincinnati regulars, and his hard rate of 25.8% on pitches 95 MPH+ is last among Reds starters. Unfortunately, we also have to talk about his defense.

Honestly, everyone knew Suarez playing shortstop was likely to be an unmitigated defensive disaster, and it’s been just as we suspected. Geno’s four miscues are the second-most among NL shortstops. This is the same Suarez that led the senior circuit in errors for third baseman in three of the past five seasons.

Prediction

Great American Ball Park has been very kind to its hosts through the first month of the season, and the presence of the Arizona Diamondbacks should do nothing to alter that fact. However, the Reds must capture this series because the road ahead is a difficult one.

Next. Bauer's agent comes to Castellanos' defense

Following Thursday’s contest, the Reds begin a six-game road trip that will take them to St. Louis and then to Dodger Stadium to take on the World Champs. Look for the Reds to take two of three from the D-backs and maintain first place in the division before embarking on a challenging journey.

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