Cincinnati Reds: Historically, hot start may mean start of something great

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Cincinnati Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos (2) reacts after hitting a solo home run. /

After years of low-scoring, lackluster starts, the Cincinnati Reds have sparked a start of historic proportions. Slice it and dice it however you want, but the Reds’ bats made history this April. Only seven other teams have scored 57 or more runs in their first six games of the season.

For each of those teams, the hot-start meant something different. What was fool’s gold for some teams was a preamble to championships for others. Might the Reds be embarking on an epic season?

The Reds have scored 66 runs so far this season.

The 2021 Cincinnati Reds scored 57 runs in six games, tied for fifth-best such start. They swept the Pittsburgh Pirates after taking the series against one of their direct competitors in St. Louis, all while joining the history books with 57 runs in six games. It’s a mark that’s even better than The Big Red Machine’s 51 runs in their first six games of the 1976 World Series season. So far, this team is taking care of business.

If you’re looking for validation or invalidation on this team, you’ll find it soon enough this summer. And yes, every one of the teams mentioned in this article had losing streaks, got blown out, and got shut out. It is a long season and there is an immense about of baseball to play in 2021. While yes, it is a small sample size, the historic start alone shows how many drastic improvements the team is making.

The Reds sweeping the Pirates, even if it’s the last-place Pirates, is a huge boost from recent years. The Reds went 12-26 against the Pirates from 2018 to 2019. And while things got out of hand the other night in Arizona, the Reds bats came through to back up the bullpen and the team succeeded in a one-run game. The Reds were .370 in one-run games since 2017 coming into the season.

This could be fool’s gold. We’ve seen great Reds lineups that sputter the season away in a mid-summer slump. So it’s understood why Reds fans and baseball critics would be skeptical of this piece of baseball history. But there are guys like Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Naquin that have made extreme individual improvements and are currently hitting the covers off of baseballs.

Stats like Naquin’s second-best 78.3% hard-hit percentage and league leading .886 expected-slugging-percentage suggest these aren’t just flukes but rather, these are some bat flippin’ sons of guns that are making a significant impact in the lineup.

CHICAGO – UNDATED 1983: Paul Molitor (R) and Robin Yount (L) of the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

Will the Reds quick start turn out to be fool’s gold?

Even the most historic starts to a season can fade into nothing. No team has scored more runs in their first six game than the 62 runs the St. Louis Cardinals cranked out in 1962. Thru 16 games in April, St. Louis had a +56 run differential with 125 runs scored.

The closest they ever got to that mark again was a +33 run differential in June. Otherwise, they were never even close. The hottest start you could ask for eventually sputtered into a 6th place finish as the Cardinals went .481 the second half of the season, finishing with 84 wins.

Another hot-start at the top of the list happened in 1978 when the Milwaukee Brewers scored 59 runs in six games. Unfortunately for the Brewers, 1978 was a time of incredible baseball. There were 13 different teams that finished with 85 or more wins and Milwaukee’s American League East division had five such teams, including a championship Yankees team. Thus, Milwaukee finished six-and-a-half games back in third place.

While both of these historic starts in St. Louis and Milwaukee sparked great success and led to 84-win and 85-win seasons, respectively, both of these teams failed to win when it mattered the most.

In 1962, St. Louis lost considerable ground by only going 6-12 against both teams that finished directly ahead of them in the standings; Milwaukee (Braves) and Pittsburgh. They also went 9-9 against a 64-win Houston team. Similarly in 1978, the Brewers went 5-10 against a Boston team that finished 5.5 games in front of them while also finishing 5-5 against a lowly, dead-last Seattle team.

Despite the historic starts to their seasons, neither team could win the games against their direct competitors. And both failed to take care of the bad teams. In current times, that means a sweep against Pittsburgh isn’t just a sweep against Pittsburgh.

You’re supposed to win those games. You need to win those games. And, as always, a series win against St. Louis should overjoy the fans in Cincinnati. These wins aren’t just flukes. These wins are this team, unlike the ’62 Cardinals and ’78 Brewers, taking care of business…so far.

17 Oct 1995: Jose Mesa of the Cleveland Indians pours champagne over Omar Vizquel”s head. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Dunn /Allsport /

Are the Reds ready to embark on a championship season?

Historic starts turn into historic seasons when teams take care of business. They’re well-rounded teams who compete with the other leaders of the league and take the series against the bad teams.

The 1950 New York Yankees took care of all the business when they opened the season with 50 runs in six games and ended the season sweeping the World Series. Led by the likes of Yogi Berra and Hank Bauer, this was an intense lineup that won 37 games by five runs or more.

They had at least a .600 winning-percentage against all their opponents, except for second-place Detroit (.500) and third-place Boston (.591). These Yankees handled all their business, all the time.

Another team that went to the World Series after a historic hot-start– and the only team to have two such historic starts– the Cleveland Indians matched the Reds 57 runs in six games in 1995. It only took them a few more year to do one run better in 1999.

The 1995 Cleveland Indians spent 131 of 162 games in first place, winning 100 games, sweeping the ALDS, and winning the AL pennant. The 1995 Indians were a very well-rounded team that finished with an absurd +233 run differential. The 1995 Indians’ team enjoyed a great postseason run that was ended by the Atlanta Braves in the World Series.

Now some might say the 1999 lineup had the even more impressive run, as Cleveland’s pitching staff had fallen off a few steps since 1995. Often playing in high-scoring games, Cleveland found themselves in one-run situations quite frequently. They posted a 26-19 record in one-run games that season.

Their 57 runs in six games; same as the 2021 Reds, created much needed momentum in a highly competitive season. It also gave a shaky pitching staff at least some peace of mind knowing they’d usually get run support.

A stacked lineup of lefties like Jim Thome and Kenny Lofton created over 1,000 runs and a +149 run differential and won Cleveland the AL Central before falling to the Boston Red Sox in the American League Division Series.

These three teams had it all. Their historic hot-starts were siren calls to the league that they were the stars and they were going to win. They had multiple guys in the lineup that could hit and a few more that could really hit for power.

They were representations of authentically dangerous lineups that would rack up the score on opponents, generate a division title and get the team to the postseason. They competed against the other leaders, won close games, and took care of business.

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As some of the Reds injured players begin to slowly return, fans are hopeful that the team can become more well-rounded through some better defense and added pitching depth. But if the individual offensive improvements can continue and the Cincinnati Reds keep on taking care of business, they’ll at least be in position to carry this improbable start to the right side of history.

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