Reds vs. Diamondbacks: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds are riding hot heading into the desert to battle the D-backs.

Winning is fun. It’s hard to imagine there’s a hotter team in baseball than the Cincinnati Reds (5-1). After dropping their Opening Day matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Reds have been victorious in their last five outings, and are simply overwhelming their opponents.

During their three-game set with the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates, the Redlegs outscored the Bucs by an incredible 30-8 advantage. However, it’s not just the Pirates who have been blistered by the Reds’ offense.

Cincinnati has dented the plate for at least five runs in every game and currently owns a +31 run differential. The rival St. Louis Cardinals didn’t fare much better than Pittsburgh as they were outscored 27-18 in the season’s opening series. As a result, the Reds currently share the best record in the game with the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.

You’re likely to find more hissing than smiling in the desert. The Arizona Diamondbacks (2-5) have struggled out of the gate. After dropping three of four to an excellent San Diego Padres club to open the season, the D-backs lost two of three to the Colorado Rockies.

Friday will be the Diamondbacks’ home opener, so the Reds can expect to see an emotionally charged Arizona club. Due to the 2020 schedule limiting travel for teams, this will be Cincinnati’s first visit to Phoenix since September of 2019.

Lifetime, the Reds lead the series over the Diamondback by a slim 76-71 margin, and the clubs have split their season series the last four years they have met. However, the Reds have found Chase Field to their liking. The visitors from the Queen City are 40-31 overall when playing in the desert.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Diamondbacks

On the heels of a tremendous season debut, Tyler Mahle toes the rubber in the opener Friday night opposing Taylor Widener. Mahle turned in a sparkling performance against the Cardinals, limiting them to two runs over five frames while fanning nine Redbirds.

The Cincinnati right-hander has faced the Diamondbacks only once in his career, and it was not a pleasant experience. Mahle was rocked for six hits and five runs in just 4.2 innings in a 2019 loss to Arizona. Look for the Diamondbacks to see a much different Tyler Mahle this time around.

Speaking of excellent season debuts as good as Mahle was, the Diamondbacks Taylor Widener was even better. The 26-year-old right-hander completely stymied an explosive Padres lineup allowing just three hits over six shutout innings. This will be the South Carolina native’s first appearance against the Reds.

Reds manager David Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson could not have asked for a better performance than what they received from Jeff Hoffman versus St. Louis. The right-hander will get the call again Saturday night. Arizona has yet to name its starter for the middle game of the three-game series.

In his Cincinnati Reds debut, Hoffman tossed five innings of one-run ball while fanning six Cardinals. If there’s one word on Hoffman’s mind as he faces the Diamondbacks, it’s likely to be redemption.

Over 10 appearances versus the D-backs, including five starts, Hoffman is 1-3 with a frightening 9.79 ERA. Tossing 26.2 innings, Arizona has taken him deep eight times. Expect to see David Peralta in Saturday night’s Diamondbacks lineup. The left-hander has six hits in 10 at-bats, including a double and a homer when facing the Reds right-hander.

Sunday’s finale will have Jose De Leon squaring off against Arizona’s Luke Weaver. After a rocky first inning in his season debut in which he surrendered a pair of homers, De Leon quickly settled down and dominated the Pirates.

Over five innings of work, De Leon allowed just three hits while striking out nine. This will be the right-hander’s first start against the Diamondbacks since September of 2016. It’s safe to assume Arizona will see a very different pitcher than the one that lasted just 3.2 frames five years ago.

Luke Weaver is looking to rebound from a disastrous 2020 season. The former first-round pick of the St. Louis Cardinals was 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts. However, he did make a positive first impression in 2021. Working 5.2 innings against the Rockies, Weaver allowed three runs on four hits in the thin Denver air.

Lifetime Weaver is unbeaten in three decisions against the Redlegs but does carry a 5.06 ERA over 26.2 frames. Reds first baseman Joey Votto has struggled in his meetings versus the Arizona starter. The Cincinnati legend has just one hit in nine at-bats.

The Reds are rolling.

Entering play Thursday, the Cincinnati Reds offense has completely dwarfed the MLB competition. The Redlegs currently lead the majors in runs scored, home runs, slugging, and OPS. Additionally, the Reds hot offensive start is not limited to just one person.

Before play began Thursday afternoon, rookie second baseman Jonathan India led the National League with a .476 batting average. Right fielder Nick Castellanos is setting the pace in slugging, OPS, total bases, and extra-base hits. He also shares the lead in the senior circuit in runs scored with fellow teammate Nick Senzel.

But wait, there’s more. Outfielder Tyler Naquin leads the National League with 13 RBIs and is tied with the aforementioned Castellanos for the league lead with four homers. Through six games, the Reds currently have two players, India and Naquin, with 10 or more RBIs, while three regulars, India, Castellanos, and third baseman Mike Moustakas, are hitting north of the .400 mark.

However, it’s not all about hitting with the Redlegs. Cincinnati hurlers are well above the league average in ERA, walks issued, strikeouts, and WHIP. Overall it’s been a dominant performance from both an offensive and pitching standpoint.

Prediction

The Reds are the hottest team in baseball, and the Diamondbacks are simply not. From top to bottom, the Redlegs hold almost every advantage over D-backs, and this should be another series where they display their superiority.

Look for the Reds to take two of three this weekend from Diamondbacks as they set their sights on a winning road trip as they prepare to head north and visit the Bay Area to battle the San Francisco Giants.