Reds vs Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds are looking to do something they’ve not done since 1988.

The 2021 season has finally arrived Reds Country, and, fingers crossed, a complete 162-game schedule awaits the Cincinnati Reds. While it may look different than a typical Opening Day in the Queen City, there will be fans in the ballpark, and that’s a start.

A familiar foe will occupy the visitors’ dugout Thursday afternoon. Squaring off against the Reds on Opening Day for the 18th time since 1917 will be the rival St. Louis Cardinals. The Redbirds hold a slim 9-8 advantage over Cincinnati in season openers throughout that span.

This will be the first time St. Louis has opened their season at Great American Ball Park since the 2014 campaign. That March 31st afternoon featured an incredible pitching duel between Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto; however, the result ended familiarly for the Redlegs.

Cardinals catcher and notorious Reds killer Yadier Molina broke a scoreless tie in the top of the seventh with a solo blast off Cueto, and the Redbirds hung on for a 1-0 shutout victory. The Reds would collect only three hits on that day, with Todd Frazier being the proud owner of a pair of base knocks.

Cincinnati’s last Opening Day victory against the Cardinals came in 1988. The Reds rallied from a 4-1 deficit before disposing of the Redbirds 5-4 in extra innings. Barry Larkin and Tracy Jones would collect two hits apiece before Kal Daniels second hit of the afternoon with two out in the bottom of the 12th scoring Jeff Treadway proved to be the difference.

Reds’ fans have a new enemy to root against.

While the Reds biggest acquisition of the offseason was signing reliever Sean Doolittle, the Cardinals decided to be a bit more ambitious. St. Louis acquired arguably the best third baseman in the game, Nolan Arenado, from the Colorado Rockies with minimal impact on their major league roster and farm system. To call it an absolute heist would be an understatement.

Arenado joins a club that finished in a virtual second-place tie with the Redlegs in the 2020 National League Central standings behind the Chicago Cubs. Like the Reds, the Cardinals failed to escape the Wild Card round, falling to the San Diego Padres in three games.

Expect the St. Louis offense to be more potent than the 2020 edition. Scoring runs consistently was a herculean task for the Cardinals. Their average of 4.14 runs per contest ranked 11th in the senior circuit, while their 51 homers ranked last in the NL.

Last year’s offensive standout was perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. The first baseman slashed .304/.417/.466 with 13 doubles. However, there’s a new Redbird on the scene who could have a significant impact.

All indications point to 22-year-old rookie outfielder Dylan Carlson starting in center field on Opening Day as Harrison Bader is out with a forearm injury. Carlson is sure to generate plenty of hype as a Rookie of the Year candidate. One of the most prominent question marks entering the Cardinals season is their outfield, and Carlson’s performance will be vital in determining their fate.

The pitching mound was much kinder to the Cardinals last season. Their team ERA of 3.90 was good enough for fourth among NL pitching staffs despite finishing 13th with just 464 strikeouts.  Expect the eight-time Gold Glove winner Arenado to have ample opportunities to show off his leatherwork.

Jonathan India looks to make his Reds debut.

All signs indicate the Reds will have three of their former first-round picks in the Opening Day starting lineup and a fourth waiting in the wings to take his place behind the dish. Expect to see Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and Jonathan India take the field behind Luis Castillo on Thursday afternoon.

Over the weekend, look for rookie catcher Tyler Stephenson to receive a starting nod as the Redlegs attempt to blend youth with a veteran core consisting of Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas. If the Cincinnati Reds can stay healthy, they have the potential to field one of their most exciting lineups in years.

Before you say it, let’s be honest, there’s no way the Reds will hit .212 as a team again like they did during the shortened 2020 season. The Reds were the worst-hitting team in the National League last year. However, there’s every reason to believe history will not repeat itself.

It’s safe to assume Votto, Suarez, Senzel, and Castellanos will not hit .226 or worse as each of them did last year. As a matter of fact, Winker was the only regular to eclipse the .245 mark throughout the 2020 campaign. Look for the Redlegs to dent the plate early and often in 2021.

Prediction

The Reds and slow starts go together like Skyline chili and cheese. There’s no need to rehash the dismal beginnings of the last three campaigns. It’s a new year and a time for optimism throughout Reds Country.

Look for Luis Castillo to best Jack Flaherty, and the Reds will once again pound Adam Wainwright into submission as they begin the 2021 season, taking two of three from their division rivals.  Without further ado, play ball.