Cincinnati Reds: 5 players most likely to have a breakout season

The 2021 baseball season is upon us, and it’s always fun to look at a handful players who are looking to break onto the big stage. While Luis Castillo has been known to Cincinnati Reds fans for years, his start in last year’s Wild Card game versus the Atlanta Braves seemed like an announcement to the world that La Piedra was a force to be reckoned with.

So, who fits that mold heading into the 2021 season? Which Reds players have the potential to go from relative unknown to National League All-Star? Is there a Randy Arozarena among the group of Cincinnati players set begin play this week? Let’s look at five Reds players ready to breakout in 2021.

Cionel Perez, Reds left-handed pitcher

The Reds recently received word that Cionel Perez was granted a fourth minor-league option, meaning the team can demote the left-hander to Triple-A Louisville this season and still retain his services without exposing the 24-year-old to waivers. It’s my opinion that Perez will stay with the big league club from Opening Day until the end of the season.

Perez was acquired from the Astros after Houston’s front office dealt the southpaw to the Queen City in exchange for Luke Barryhill. Perez was originally signed out of Cuba for $2M and made his major league debut in 2018.

Perez was thought early on to have an outside chance to be part of the Cincinnati starting rotation, but as Cactus League play went along, it became more and more obvious that the Reds coaching staff see him as reliever. Perez has gone 10.2 innings this spring and struck out nine batters.

Perez has a solid three-pitch mix, with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. David Bell is likely to carry three left-handed relievers this season, but by July, I expect Perez to supplant Sean Doolittle and join Amir Garrett in the backend of the Cincinnati bullpen.

Tejay Antone, Reds right-handed pitcher

Tejay Antone will be in the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation before the All-Star break. That’s not a bold prediction. In fact, I think a good majority of Reds Country would agree with me. Antone had his sights set on the starting rotation heading into spring training and has done nothing but perform. While ticketed for the bullpen, I don’t think he’ll stay there for long.

Had Antone had the opportunity to stretch out more this spring, I think he’d be starting the season in the rotation in place of Jose De Leon. While De Leon has enjoyed a successful spring and could be a pleasant surprise this season, Antone is the real deal. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound Texan looks ready to show the baseball world that he means business.

Antone was an unknown last season before making his major league debut. The right-hander wasn’t on the radar of many scouts and was ranked 29th in the Reds farm system during the 2019 season by MLB Pipeline. Antone was ranked behind highly-touted prospects like Vladimir Gutierrez, Tony Santillan, Lyon Richardson, and Joel Kuhnel. I think Antone will better than all four of those pitchers.

Antone works fast and he pounds the strike zone on a regular basis; basically begging hitters to come after his stuff. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017 and battling back in 2018, Antone became a fixture in the Louisville Bats’ rotation in 2019.

Antone’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, but he can certainly crank it up to 97 MPH or higher. The 27-year-old has posted a 1.17 ERA through 7.2 innings this spring while striking out 13 batters and walking three. Tejay Antone will be one of the biggest surprises in Major League Baseball this season.

Tyler Mahle, Reds right-handed pitcher

This is the year that Tyler Mahle cements his spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation for years to come, or becomes a back-of-the-rotation starter who’s spot will be in jeopardy next spring. I’m going with the former, as Mahle proved last season that he has the makeup of a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

I believe Mahle’s performance last season was one of the reasons we heard Sonny Gray’s name emerge in trade rumors this offseason. Mahle put up solid numbers in 10 games last season, posting a 3.59 ERA and 3.88 FIP in nearly 50 innings of work. The biggest difference was Mahle’s success at keeping the ball in the ballpark.

In 2018, Mahle saw 22 balls leave the yard during his rookie campaign. In 2019, an eye-popping 25 home runs were allowed by the right-hander in as many starts. That 1.75 HR/9 was a scary number, but last season saw the California native bring that down to 1.13 according to FanGraphs. The question is, can Mahle maintain that over the course of a 162-game season?

Tyler Mahle also saw his strikeout-rate jump from 23.2% in 2019 to 29.9% in 2020. If the right-hander can maintain that standard, batters will struggle to get hits off Mahle all season. Unfortunately, Mahle’s walk-rate jumped too. The 26-year-old must cut down on the number of walks and keep the ball in the yard.

With a strong crop of talented, young pitchers on their way up through the Reds minor league system, the 2021 season is a chance for Mahle to stake claim to one of those starting spots moving forward, or be in danger of losing it to one of the youngsters next season. Look for a breakout season from Tyler Mahle in 2021.

Nick Senzel, Reds centerfielder

You knew I was going here. This is the year for Nick Senzel. Either he makes it through the 2021 season unscathed or another injury puts a giant question mark on his Reds career going forward. The starting centerfielder for Cincinnati has the potential to be the Reds’ best player, but he must stay healthy.

It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances for the 25-year-old as he enters his third major league season with just 127 games under his belt. Service time manipulation and a shoulder injury robbed Senzel of several games during his rookie season, and an illness landed the right-handed hitting centerfielder on the IL for a month during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Had the 2020 season been a complete 162-game schedule and Senzel missed a month’s worth of action with an illness, I don’t think Reds fans would be so cutthroat in their criticism of the former first-round pick. However, the fact is, Senzel has only played 57% of the 222 games over the past two seasons.

Again, service time manipulation kept Senzel out of about 30 of those games, but even if you add those games back, you’re still looking a player who’s only played in about 70% of the available games. Senzel needs to start the better part of 140 games (about 85%) this season in order for the fanbase to get off his back.

There’s a big benefit to that as well. If Nick Senzel is on the field, he’s bound to have success. The talent is there; that’s not in question. If healthy, Senzel has the ability to hit 20 homers and nab 20 stolen bases. If he’s able to stay on the field, Senzel will break out in 2021, and could very well supplant Eugenio Suarez as the Reds best player.