Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the Opening Day batting order

How will David Bell fill out the Reds lineup card on Opening Day?

Opening Day is just around the corner. In a little over one week, the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will descend upon Great American Ball Park, and for the first time since Marty Brennaman retired in 2019, there will be fans in the stands to cheer on their hometown Redlegs. But how will Reds skipper David Bell fill out his lineup card April 1st when the Redbirds come to town?

The Reds know that Cardinals’ ace Jack Flaherty will be toeing the rubber on Opening Day. Last season was unkind to the right-hander who went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA and posted a -0.3 WAR. Cincinnati is hoping to see a similar version of Flaherty in 2021, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The 2020 season was an anomaly for several big leaguers, and Flaherty is one who I’d expect to bounce back. Prior to last season’s dismal effort, Flaherty was 19-19 with a 3.20 ERA and 433 strikeouts over 368.2 innings pitched. St. Louis is hopeful that Flaherty returns to that level of dominance in 2021.

Regardless of how well or how poorly Flaherty performs on Opening Day, you can bet your bottom dollar that Bell is going to play the percentages and go with a left-handed heavy lineup on April 1st. The Reds did not face Flaherty in 2020, but in 2019, the team hit a collective .213 off the right-hander with Anthony Desclafani and Sonny Gray accounting for two of the Reds’ 13 hits.

Only Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas, and Jesse Winker have taken Flaherty deep during his career, and former MVP Joey Votto is 5-for-10 versus Flaherty lifetime. So, what will Bell’s Opening Day look like versus Jack Flaherty and the St. Louis Cardinals?

Top of the Reds batting order

1. Jesse Winker (LF), 2. Nick Castellanos (RF), 3. Joey Votto (1B)

The top of the Cincinnati Reds batting order should look pretty familiar. While it may seem odd to see Jesse Winker atop the lineup, don’t put too much stock into the Reds’ left fielder being the team’s leadoff hitter. While it’s possible to see Nick Senzel batting No. 1 more times than not this season, I think David Bell will put Winker in that spot against Jack Flaherty on Opening Day.

Nick Castellanos has looked great all spring, and I’m expecting a huge season from last year’s big-name free agent signing. Castellanos has all the the incentive in the world to let his bat do the talking in2021, as the 28-year-old can opt out following this offseason. In 2019 versus Flaherty, Castellanos was 2-for-5 with a walk.

I know, I know, I’m not the biggest fan of Joey Votto in the No. 3 hole either, but for Opening Day versus Flaherty, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better player to occupy the third spot in the lineup. Votto is .500 hitter versus the Cardinals’ right-hander. More often than not, I expect Votto to be hitting out of the No. 2 hole this season.

But, if Votto truly does try to hit for more power and become less selective with his pitches, the former MVP could be bumped down in the batting order. If Votto’s healthy, expect the face of the franchise to be hitting somewhere in the top-third of Cincinnati’s lineup.

Middle of the Reds batting order

4. Eugenio Suarez (SS), 5. Mike Moustakas (3B), 6. Nick Senzel (CF)

Eugenio Suarez is now the Reds’ starting shortstop, and the all-time leader in home runs by a Venezuelan-born player will bring some pop to the middle of the Cincinnati lineup. Suarez is on a mission to break his own record and smack 50 homers in 2021. I believe he can do it, and he’s sure to rack up several RBIs as well if he’s batting in the clean up spot.

Mike Moustakas will move from the keystone to the hot corner, but his spot in the middle of the Reds batting order is unlikely to change. Moose is known more for his power than his on-base percentage, and he owned Jack Flaherty while with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019. That year, Moustakas was 3-for-7 with a double, a home run, and two RBIs.

Nick Senzel has look very good this spring, and if healthy, I look for the former first-round pick to be in the leadoff spot more times than not in 2021. With Shogo Akiyama sidelined with a hamstring injury, Senzel has no competition for playing time in center field.

History suggests that David Bell might’ve preferred the left-handed Akiyama versus Flaherty, but there’s little doubt that the right-handed Senzel will be starting in the middle of the Reds’ outfield. Senzel is 1-for-2 lifetime versus the Cardinals’ right-hander.