Cincinnati Reds: Predicting 5 potential contract extensions

4 of 5

Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen (21) throws a pitch. /

The Cincinnati Reds have just one player slated to enter free agency this coming winter, but that shouldn’t preclude the team from entertaining the idea of signing some of their young players beyond their arbitration years. Who should be first in line to sign a multi-year contract extension with the Reds this spring?

This is the time of year when you’ll hear rumblings about potential contract extensions. The New York Mets are said to be exploring new deals for shortstop Francisco Lindor and outfielder Michael Conforto. The Kanas City Royals just extended catcher Salvador Perez to a four-year deal. The Chicago Cubs in talks to extend Anthony Rizzo beyond the 2021 season.

Typically, teams and players prefer not to extend contract negotiations into the regular season. It’s oftentimes viewed as a distraction for the player. Three years ago this spring, the Cincinnati front office reached a long-term agreement with Eugenio Suarez. Who will be the next Reds player to reach a multi-year agreement with the team?

Michael Lorenzen, Reds right-handed pitcher

Projected contract extension: 3 years/$18M

We mentioned earlier that the Reds had just one player scheduled to be a free agent after the 2021 season. That is, of course, unless Nick Castellanos opts out of his current contract. That free agent to-be is Michael Lorenzen. There’s one big problem with extending the Zen Master; what role will he fill with the team moving forward?

Is Lorenzen a starter? A reliever? Perhaps an outfielder? Michael Lorenzen is a jack-of-all-trades, and one of a handful of players that can actually call themselves two-way players. Lorenzen is athletic enough to play the outfield, can hold his own in the batters box, and can hit the upper-90s on the radar gun. Lorenzen is a rare breed, and that can make negotiating contract very difficult.

What’s the market look like for a player like Michael Lorenzen? Liam Hendricks, arguably the best reliever on the market this past winter, signed a four-year/$55M contract with the Chicago White Sox.

Taijuan Walker, who’s just 28-years old, signed a two-year/$16M contract with the New York Mets and will be a middle-of-the-rotation starter alongside Marcus Stroman and Jacob deGrom. Garrett Richards signed a two-year/$16M deal as well. We also saw former Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani sign a one-year/$6M contract with the San Francisco Giants.

Not knowing what the future holds for Lorenzen’s role with the ball club makes predicting a possible contract extension nearly impossible. Lorenzen is slated to earn $4.43M this season, but could sign a contract extension worth a larger average annual value (AAV).

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 21: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds looks on during a game. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Luis Castillo, Reds right-handed pitcher

Projected contract extension: 4 years/$41M

Luis Castillo is easily the most valuable player on the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo, this year’s Opening day starter, was eligible for arbitration this season, but he and the Reds front office agreed to a one-year/$4.2M contract. If Cincinnati is looking to make a multi-year deal to Castillo, it’ll need to be mutually beneficial.

The goal of contract extension with Castillo would be to give the team cost control moving into the future and to give Castillo financial security. The two most recent examples of this are German Marquez with the Colorado Rockies and Aaron Nola with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Marquez signed a five-year/$43M contract with the Rockies prior to the 2019 season. That same spring, Nola signed a four-year/$45M pact with the Phillies, buying out his three arbitration years, plus his first year of free agency.

Prior to their extensions, Marquez and Nola posted a respective ERA of 4.11 and 3.35. Castillo’s career ERA is sitting at 3.62. With Marquez earning an annual average value of $8.6M and Nola’s AAV sitting at $11.25M, it seems fair to slot Castillo comfortably between the two with an AAV of $10.25M.

If there’s just one player that the Cincinnati Reds front office should look to extend this spring, it’s Luis Castillo. La Piedra is this team’s ace, and Nick Krall could make a strong statement to the rest of the league that Castillo is not for sale by locking up thee right-hander to a long-term contract.

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – SEPTEMBER 25: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds delivers a pitch. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Tyler Mahle, Reds right-handed pitcher

Projected contract extension: 4 years/$21M

Tyler Mahle is a buy-low candidate to receive a contract extension this spring. It doesn’t behoove the Cincinnati Reds to pursue multi-year deal with Mahle unless thee club expects the 26-year-old to blossom into a No. 2 starter this season; something that I think it within his reach.

Mahle was slated to begin the 2020 season at Triple-A Louisville after Cincinnati signed Wade Miley to a two-year contract. This wasn’t the first time it was assumed Mahle would not start the season in the bigs.

After trading for Alex Wood prior to the 2019 season, Mahle looked like he’d begin the season in Louisville rather than Cincinnati. However, injuries to a slew of starters over the past two seasons have seen Mahle start 34 games the previous two seasons and post a 4.72 ERA. The right-hander looked sharp last season, going 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, and 60 punch outs over 47.2 innings of work.

Mahle is under a one-year/$2.2M contract for the 2021 season and is under team control through the 2023 season. At this point, there’s no rush to sign the California native to a longterm extension. However, if the Reds brass feel as though Mahle is starting to come into his own, and would prefer to buy low on the former seventh-round draft pick, now is the time to do it.

A four-year/$21M deal would buy out all Mahle’s arbitration eligible seasons and give the right-hander an AAV of just $5.25M per season. Mahle is unlikely to be an ace, but has the potential to a key piece of the Reds’ rotation this season and beyond.

Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Amir Garrett (50) follows through. /

Amir Garrett, Reds left-handed pitcher

Projected contract extension: 4 years/$19M

The reliever market has exploded recently, and Amir Garrett is arguably one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in the game. Garrett is under team control through the 2023 season and recently signed a one-year/$1.5M contract to avoid arbitration. Are the Reds ready to count on AG moving into the future?

Edwin Diaz, one of the better closers in baseball, signed a one-year/$7M contract with the New York Mets this winter, avoiding arbitration. Diaz will be a free agent following the 2022 season. Josh Hader, the talented lefty for the Brewers, lost his arbitration case this offseason, but will still take home $6.68M in 2021.

It’s a bit unfair to put Garrett among the best closers in the game, especially considering he’s only got one save in this entire major league career. However, Garrett looks like the odds-on favorite to take the vacancy left by Raisel Iglesias.

But, without a track record a locking down opponents late in games, Nick Krall and the Reds front office should be leery of dealing out a ton to Garrett until he proves he can handle the gig. He’ll have competition this season from longtime Washington Nationals closer Sean Doolittle and right-hander Lucas Sims.

Amir Garrett would be a fine candidate for a contract extension this spring, but only if the price is right. If Garrett shows that he can handle the closing duties, then his price tag will only go up. However, if he struggles in his new role, the Reds may have overpaid a bit for left-handed specialist.

Cincinnati Reds left fielder Jesse Winker (33) runs in after the first inning. /

Jesse Winker, Reds outfielder

Projected contract extension: 5 years/$29M

We talked earlier about how hard it would be to project a contract for player like Michael Lorenzen; Jesse Winker falls into the same category. A skilled hitter has has great noses for the strike zone, Winker has the potential to be a key piece in the middle of the Reds batting order for years to come. But can be an effective outfielder?

The bigger question might be, will that even matter beyond this season? Odds are that we’ll see the universal DH return for good in 2022 and whether or not Winker has the skillset to play average defense in the outfield will be irrelevant. Winker’s bat, not his glove, would be the reason to sign the New York native to a contract extension.

However, his injury history would be the biggest reason not to sign Winker to a longterm contract. The 27-year-old stayed heathy for the majority of the 2020 season, but that was just a 60-game abbreviated campaign. Can Winker hold up throughout thee rigors of an entire 162-game season, especially if he’s being counted on to play the field as well.

Jesse Winker led the team in OPS (.932) last season, and there was a 25-game stretch in August when the left-handed hitting slugger looked like the best hitter in baseball. Over that span, Winker slashed .397/.484/.859 with 10 home runs and 16 RBIs.

Next. 3 Reds who've made a statement this spring

Winker has looked good this spring, collecting seven hits and eight walks in 27 at-bats. It’s just hard to trust Winker given his injury history and last September’s slump that saw former first-round pick go 5-for-48 (.104) to close out the season. Winker has a high ceiling, but the Reds cannot afford to overpay him should the club enter contract negotiations.

Home / Reds News