Cincinnati Reds: 5 bold predictions for the 2021 season

1. Reds pitcher Luis Castillo wins the 2021 NL Cy Young Award

Luis Castillo is the unquestioned ace of the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff heading into the 2021 season. This is taking nothing away from Sonny Gray, who’s been great since arriving from the Big Apple. But Castillo is in a class by himself. La Piedra should be among the handful of starters in line for the 2021 Cy Young Award, and I think he’s got a great chance to bring home the hardware.

There will be plenty of competition in the National League for the Cy Young Award. Heck, last year’s winner, Trevor Bauer, is still in the NL having moved out west to join the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Yu Darvish, who was close to winning the award last season, was traded from the Chicago Cubs to the San Diego Padres. And don’t forget about New York’s Jacob deGrom.

While Bauer had a fantastic 2020 campaign, let’s not forget that the right-hander started just 11 games and threw only 73 innings. That’s not sour grapes; it’s just facts! Last season was an anomaly all the way around. In fact, if you take Bauer’s 21 starts as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, he went 7-9 with a 3.76 ERA with 168 punch outs and 36 walks.

Castillo cannot afford a slow start to the 2021 season if he hopes to be in the conversation for the NL Cy Young Award. Last season, La Piedra went 0-5 in his first seven starts with a 4.10 ERA. Castillo, however, turned things around down the stretch and in the month of September, the right-hander went 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA while striking out 37 batters and allowed just one home run.

Luis Castillo has some of the best stuff in the game. The only player in Major League Baseball who can rival Castillo’s changeup is Milwaukee Brewers’ reliever Devin Williams. If Castillo gets off to a hot start, he’ll be the in Cy Young conversation all season long.

2. Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson starts more games than Tucker Barnhart.

Heading into the 2021 season, Tyler Stephenson is sure to get plenty of playing time. But, the rookie will be behind Tucker Barnhart on the depth chart and will likely only get the start when a left-hander is on the mound. However, by the All-Star break, it’s quite possible that Stephenson will have shown himself to be a force in the Reds lineup and supplant Barnhart.

For fans of Tucker Barnhart, and there are plenty, this may be a bittersweet season to watch the Reds backstop. While the two-time Gold Glove Award-winner has certainly earned his standing on this team and in the hearts of the fans, defense alone will not be enough to keep Barnhart on the team moving forward.

Barnhart is an elite defensive catcher, but his bat has never been equal to his production behind the plate. For his career, Barnhart is a .248 hitter and usually occupies the bottom half of the batting order. Stephenson has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order force for the Reds this season and into the future.

Barnhart is under contract through the end of the upcoming season and has a $7M team option the following year. After watching Cincinnati part ways with Archie Bradley, Curt Casali, and Raisel Iglesias this past winter, it’s hard to envision Nick Krall and the front office hanging onto Barnhart for that price heading into 2022.

If Barnhart can elevate his play at the dish, he’ll keep his spot among the Reds’ regulars. However, if Stephenson lives up the lofty potential, it’s only a matter of time before the 24-year-old finds a spot in the heart of the Cincinnati lineup. It’s not a question of if Tyler Stephenson will replace Tucker Barnhart, but when?

3. Lucas Sims, not Amir Garrett, leads the Reds in saves.

I’ve been banging this drum all offseason, and I’ll continue to do so heading into the regular season; Lucas Sims, not Amir Garrett, should be the Cincinnati Reds closer in 2021. Until Garrett shows that he can successfully get outs versus right-handed batters, I’m not convinced that AG can handle the rigors of being the team’s closer.

Amir Garrett is one of the best left-handed relievers in the game. I love his passion and tenacity on the mound. That alter-ego, AG, is a fierce competitor that no left-handed batter wants to face. However, right-handed hitters took Garrett to task last season.

When facing left-handed batters, AG was lights-out. Garrett did not allow a single ball to the yard and left-handed hitters had a paltry slash line of just .043/.214/.043. But, when facing a right-handed batter, Garrett allowed four home runs and an opposing OPS of .807. If he wants to be the Reds closer, Garrett must improve his performance against right-handed hitters.

I’m sure he’ll be given the opportunity, as David Bell finally gave Jesse Winker the chance to battle left-handed pitchers last season after being benched almost every time a southpaw stepped onto the mound in 2019. But, Bell will also have other options in his bullpen, including fellow left-handed reliever Sean Doolittle, along with Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone.

I think we’ll see a closer-by-committee, which is what Bell wanted to do two years, using Raisel Iglesias as his bullpen ace. Look for both Garrett and Sims to get opportunities to close out games in 2021, but I’ll give the edge to the right-hander this season.

4. Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos finishes third in the NL MVP race.

Nick Castellanos was brought to Cincinnati last winter on what many fans thought would amount to a one-year deal. As it turns out, a pandemic-shortened season and poor performance led to Castellanos re-upping with the Reds for second season and declining to opt out of his four-year contract.

Castellanos will have another opportunity to do so following the 2021 season, but his production will have to match what we saw from the slugger during the second half of his 2019 season with the Chicago Cubs. I fully expect Castellanos to return to form in 2021 and wreak havoc on opposing pitchers.

According to FanGraphs, Castellanos saw some of the best numbers of his career in 2020. His average exit velocity was 91.0-MPH and his barrel percentage was 16.0% while his hard-hit percentage was 46.0%. For reference, his exit velocity was better than Manny Machado (90.2), his barrel percentage was higher than Mike Trout’s (15.0%), and his hard-hit percentage bested Mookie Betts (43.4%).

Castellanos’ lack of production boiled down to bad luck. Castellanos hit .225 with a BABIP of .257. I look for the 2021 season to be more in-line with what Castellanos produced from 2016-2019 when the slugger hit .286/.336/.504 with 165 doubles, 94 home runs, and 321 RBIs.

Given that Great American Ball Park is much more hitter-friendly than Comerica Park, expect a lot of those doubles to turn into home runs. I could easily envision Nick Castellanos smacking 40-plus home runs and racking up over 100 RBIs. If Castellanos plays up to his potential, he may fall just behind Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the chase for the NL MVP.

5. Reds take home the division crown for the first time since 2012.

There is no clear-cut favorite in the National League Central Division. As far as I’m concerned, any one of four teams can win the division title. The only team who’s out of contention is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who may finish with 100-plus losses on the season. The Cincinnati Reds may not be the favorites, but timely hitting and the best rotation in the division will be enough to take the division with 89 wins.

Don’t look for any one team to dominate the NL Central. No club made a slew of moves that elevates them above the rest in the division. The Cardinals added Nolan Arenado, but I don’t know that it makes St. Louis the odds-on favorites. Milwaukee made some sneaky-good additions, but the Brewers starting rotation is a question mark.

The Cubs did little more than the Reds this offseason, and Chicago may look to unload former MVP Kris Bryant at some point before the trade deadline. While Cincinnati failed to find a shortstop this winter, last season’s additions may be enough to put the Reds over the top if those four free agent signees from a year ago play up to their potential.

The Reds, despite losing Trevor Bauer, still have the best starting rotation in the National League Central. Outside of the San Diego Padres, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers, it can be argued that Cincinnati’s rotation is among the best in the league.

The Reds will sink or swim based on how the team’s offense produces this season. No real additions were made to address a league-worst .212 batting average. But one has to assume that Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, and Eugenio Suárez will hover around the Mendoza line during the 2021 season.

A healthy Nick Senzel would greatly improve Cincinnati’s hitting this season, and Shogo Akiyama will be counted upon even more having been state-side for over a year now. If Joey Votto can get on base and give the team slightly above-average production, the rest of the team should be able to pick up the pieces.

The biggest difference maker this season will be Jesse Winker. I believe this will be Winker’s coming out party, and the left-handed slugger will lead the Cincinnati Reds in on-base percentage and RBIs. If Winker can stay healthy and play adequate defense in left field, he’ll be a fixture in the lineup night-in and night-out.

The strength of this year’s Reds team is the starting pitching. The bullpen will have more than enough arms to keep the team in games, and a backend of Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims, and Sean Doolittle should be enough to lockdown ball games late. Can the offense rally from last year’s terrible performance? If the answer is yes, this team will win the NL Central.