Reds: Ranking the most likely replacements for injured starter Wade Miley

Who’s most likely to replace Wade Miley in the Reds’ rotation?

The Cincinnati Reds lost one of their starting pitchers. Wade Miley, according to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth inning of Thursday night’s game versus the Chicago White Sox. If Miley is slated to miss any regular season games, who’s most likely to take his spot in the starting rotation?

Miley, who signed a two-year/$15M contract with the ball club last winter, didn’t produce the best results in the abbreviated 2020 season. The southpaw went 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA after excelling as a member of the Houston Astros’ starting staff in 2019. Miley missed a handful of games last season due to injury and eventually was relegated to the bullpen.

David Bell, via MLB.com, hopes the injury is minor and Miley can return before Opening Day, which is three weeks away. While it’s not an arm injury, there’s still concern that this could hinder the left-hander’s ability to begin the season on the active roster.

“Hopefully it’s minor. His pitches looked good. He was getting some chase with his pitches, his cutter looked good. That’s a good sign. We just have to be hopeful that this won’t be too much of a setback. You hate to see him go through anything. The bright side is it’s nothing with his arm. Because it’s a leg injury, hopefully he can get back quick.”

Thankfully for the Reds, their starting pitching depth is arguably the biggest strength of this team. With Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray atop the rotation, Miley was being counted on as the team’s No. 4 starter behind Tyler Mahle.

If the injury to Miley bleeds into the regular season, one has to assume that Michael Lorenzen is a virtual lock for a spot in the starting rotation. Under the assumption that Miley is unable to go and the rotation is comprised of Castillo, Gray, Mahle, and Lorenzen, who’s most likely to get that coveted final spot? Let’s rank the Top 5.

5. Nick Lodolo, Reds left-handed pitcher

Nick Lodolo, who could see the major league field this season, is most likely not atop the list of names likely to fill Wade Miley’s spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation. Sure, Lodolo would add a left-handed arm to the rotation, but his inexperience is going to keep him at the back of the pack.

Lodolo has seen time in just one Cactus League game thus far this spring. That said, in that one game, the lefty didn’t allow a hit or a run and recorded one strikeout. Lodolo’s stuff will play at the major league level, but the lack of a minor league season in 2020 really hampered his development.

Lodolo was originally drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates, but decided to honor his commitment to Texas Christian University. The southpaw was plucked with the No. 7 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft by the Cincinnati Reds and was the first pitcher off the the board. Lodolo has an advanced skillset and three above-average pitches in his arsenal.

While Nick Lodolo may not be ready to replace Wade Miley in the Reds rotation just yet, his time is coming. In fact, if Miley struggles in 2021, Lodolo might be the most likely longterm replacement for the former Milwaukee Brewers’ starter. Lodolo could make his major league debut in 2021, but if not, we’ll definitely see the southpaw on the hill for Cincinnati next season.

4. Jeff Hoffman, Reds right-handed pitcher

Jeff Hoffman was an interesting addition to the Cincinnati Reds organization this offseason. Nick Krall and the front office decided to ship former first-round pick Robert Stephenson and outfield prospect Jameson Hannah to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Hoffman and pitching prospect Case Williams.

That trade, in my mind, was all about a change in scenery for both Hoffman and Stephenson. The Reds were unlikely to tender Stephenson a contract, and Hannah was buried in the team’s minor league system behind the likes of Michael Siani and TJ Friedl. Cincinnati was also able to snag Williams, who has the potential to be a very good pitcher down the road.

As for Hoffman, the former first-round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays has struggled to find success at the big league level. The right-hander is 10-16 lifetime with a career-ERA of 6.40, however, Hoffman hit rock bottom last season going 2-1 with a 9.28 ERA in 16 relief appearances for Colorado.

Jeff Hoffman hasn’t started a game in the majors since 2019, going 2-6 with a 6.56 ERA that season for the Rockies. Hoffman has gone five innings thus far in Cactus League play, racking up four punch outs and walking just one batter to the tune of a 3.60 ERA. Hoffman, however, has the feel of a multiple-inning reliever rather than a starter.

2. José De León, Reds right-handed pitcher

And then there were two. José De León came to the Cincinnati Reds last season with lofty expectations. The right-hander was one of the top prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays organizations, and both those ball clubs are well regarded for their drafting and development capabilities.

However, something just wasn’t right with De León last season, and it was likely that the right-hander hasn’t yet fully recovered from his previous injuries. De León underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2018 and returned to the field in 2019. However, most fans concede that few players fully recover from that surgery until two, and sometimes three years after going under the knife.

De León struggled in last year’s 60-game campaign. One could argue that the shortened spring, restart in the summer, and lack of a minor league season hurt De León more than any other player on the Reds roster. The right-hander appeared in five games, had a massive 18.00 ERA, 2.833 WHIP, and allowed more runs than any other Reds reliever other than Nate Jones, who pitched in 21 games.

Do not expect a repeat performance from José De León in 2021. De León has now appeared in three Cactus League games, and thrown three innings in each of his last two outings. Wednesday night versus the Kansas City Royals, De León struck out eight batters, allowed two runs, and walked three.

Whether or not Wade Miley returns for Opening Day is irrelevant to José De León, as the Puerto Rico native has the stuff to beat out Michael Lorenzen for that coveted fifth spot in the rotation. But, De León has competition, and ranks just behind another Cincinnati right-hander.

1. Tejay Antone, Reds right-hander

There were two hard-throwing Texans in Cincinnati’s farm system heading into last season. One was Tony Santillan, the team’s second-round pick in 2015. Santillan made great strides in 2018, but went backwards in 2019 and the absence of a minor league season last year hurt his chances to rebuild the Reds’ confidence in him. Tejay Antone, however, captured the attention of the coaches and fans.

Antone is a slick, strong-armed right-handed pitcher who deals quickly. There’s no wasted motion, no dillydallying on the bump, he just grips it and rips it towards home plate and he works the entire strike zone. Antone is flat-out fun to watch and has the potential to be the biggest surprise on this year’s Reds team.

I understand the idea behind putting Michael Lorenzen into the starting rotation. The veteran has earned his stripes, has a desire to start, and having him pitch every fifth day gives David Bell a plethora of options to use 29-year-old in a myriad of other roles (pinch hitter, pinch runner, outfielder, etc.).

However, if I were managing the Cincinnati Reds, I’d keep Lorenzen in the bullpen and roll with Tejay Antone as my No. 5 starting pitcher. But, it appears as though Lorenzen has the inside track, for now, and Antone is ticketed for the bullpen. If any of the starters struggle or fall victim to injury, Antone has to be on deck.

With Wade Miley out for the foreseeable future, Antone becomes the next player in line to take spot in the Reds starting rotation. While he performed better out of the bullpen (0-1, 1.89 ERA) last season, the right-hander still put up great numbers as a starter (0-2, 3.86 ERA) as well.

If Miley is unable to go when the season begins in three weeks, Tejay Antone is the most logical choice to take his spot in the Reds rotation. However, José De León, Cionel Pérez, and others have the next couple weeks to impress the coaches and stake their claim to that potential opening as well.