Cincinnati Reds: Projecting the 2022 starting rotation

Who’s going to be in the Reds starting rotation in 2022?

I know, I know, we haven’t even began the 2021 season yet. But, it’s always fun to predict what will happen in the future, right? So bear with me as we take a peek into 2022 and see if we can figure out how the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation may shake out heading into next season.

After losing Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani to free agency this past winter, the Reds starting rotation is undergoing a transformation this spring. There were even rumors that Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray were on the trade block. If the Reds are out of contention by July, expect those rumors to return.

We’ve also seen several young hurlers so far this spring who look the part of future starting pitchers. Tejay Antone impressed in his first action this spring, Nick Lodolo had a solid inning of work against the Los Angeles Angels, and Hunter Greene was dealing fastballs that eclipsed 100-MPH on multiple occasions. The future looks bright for the starting rotation in Cincinnati.

With brilliant baseball minds like pitching coach Derek Johnson, assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers, and director of pitching Kyle Boddy leading the charge, it’s become obvious that Cincinnati’s braintrust has zeroed-in on making pitching the franchise’s primary focus in both the minor leagues and at the major league level.

So, who’ll be toeing the rubber every fifth for the Cincinnati Reds heading into the 2022 season? Will Luis Castillo still be on the roster? Will some of the young talent in the farm system be up to the task? Might Sonny Gray be on the move later this summer? Let’s see if we can select the five starters who’ll open next season in the Queen City.

1. Luis Castillo, Reds right-handed pitcher

The Cincinnati Reds will have to be blown away in order to deal Luis Castillo before the start of the 2022 season. I know there were plenty of rumblings this offseason, and I’m sure there was some truth to some of the trade rumors, but I think Cincinnati’s front office knows that they have in Luis Castillo, and I assume we’ll hear more about a potential contract extension rather than a trade.

Castillo is under team control for the next three seasons, but that won’t stop the Reds from trying to lock up their young ace beyond the 2023 season. Trust me, Nick Krall and the other front office staff know what they have in Luis Castillo; a young, talented pitcher who possesses Cy Young-type stuff.

Luis Castillo has been dominant the past two seasons, and with Trevor Bauer off to LA, La Piedra will be the unquestioned ace of the ball club moving forward. Sonny Gray is a talented pitcher, but Castillo is just better and still has some untapped potential.

It took Castillo a few games to get going last season, as the right-hander started the season 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA. However, Castillo recovered nicely, found his groove, and finished the abbreviated 2020 season going 4-1 over the final five games with a 2.20 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 32.2 innings.

Luis Castillo is the Cincinnati’s best pitcher, and I fully expect him to be on the bump for Opening Day 2022 wearing a Reds uniform. The rest of rotation heading into next season may be a question mark, but every fan should expect Castillo to be the team’s ace in 2022.

2. Tyler Mahle, Reds right-handed pitcher

This is where things get interesting. While I don’t expect the Cincinnati Reds to move on from Luis Castillo before the start of the 2022 season, I don’t think we’ll see Sonny Gray in a Cincinnati uniform beyond the upcoming 2021 season. While he’s under a very affordable contract, Gray’s value at the July trade deadline may be enough to net the Reds some prospects moving forward.

While most Reds fans would hate to see Gray leave the Queen City, what we saw from Tyler Mahle in 2020 should give the fanbase hope. Mahle took the opportunity gifted to him due to injuries to both Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley and turned it into a firm grasp on the No. 3 starter heading into the 2021 season.

Mahle is under team control, just like Luis Castillo, through the 2023 season. Mahle will come much cheaper than Castillo, but the right-hander has finally started to live up to the potential that saw him climb through the team’s farm system before breaking into the big leagues in 2018.

Tyler Mahle saw his strikeout-rate skyrocket in 2020 from 23.2% to 29.9% according to FanGraphs. Mahle also cut down on his HR/9, trimming it from 1.74 to 1.13. If Mahle can keep the ball in the ballpark, he’s got a great chance to impress during the upcoming 2021 season.

Mahle, like Castillo, could be a candidate for a contract extension, but I doubt Cincinnati will entertain the idea of locking up Mahle until they’ve done so with their ace. Mahle’s cost is fairly low in 2021, and unless he greatly surpasses expectations during the upcoming season, he’ll still be very affordable moving into the 2022 season.

4. Michael Lorenzen, Reds right-handed pitcher

Michael Lorenzen looks to have the inside track for the final spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation heading into the 2021 season. After the departures of Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, David Bell is looking for someone to join the group of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Wade Miley. Lorenzen, as mentioned in the previous slide, in competition with three other pitchers.

One of the biggest advantages Lorenzen brings to the team if he’s in the starting rotation is his versatility on his days off. Over the last few years, Lorenzen has been primarily a reliever, meaning that the elite-level athleticism the California native possesses has to be managed carefully.

If Lorenzen is called upon to pitch in the seventh inning, Bell can’t turn to him in the ninth inning as a pinch runner. Bringing on Lorenzen as a pinch hitter or an extra outfielder late in games is no-go if Lorenzen saw time on the mound earlier in the contest. However, if Bell knows that every fifth day Lorenzen will be on the mound, he’s got many other ways to use the pitcher on his days off.

The question with Michael Lorenzen’s inclusion in the 2022 starting rotation will ultimately come down to whether or not the right-hander is in a Reds uniform next season. After going through arbitration-eligibility for the final time this winter, Mikey Biceps will be a free agent following the 2021 World Series.

That is unless the Cincinnati Reds front office decides to extend Lorenzen before the start of the 2021 season; something that is a real possibility. Lorenzen represents the lone free agent other than Miley and, potentially, Nick Castellanos. With what Lorenzen brings to the field and the clubhouse, in addition to being a fan-favorite, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him receive a contract extension.

5. Nick Lodolo, Reds left-handed pitcher

This final spot in the 2022 Cincinnati Reds starting rotation will likely come down to two of the team’s top prospects; Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. While Greene possesses electric stuff, I’m going to lean towards Lodolo at this point in time.

There’s a very real possibility, depending on Luis Castillo’s standing with the team and Michael Lorenzen’s free agency, that Cincinnati will be looking to fill multiple spots in the rotation and both Lodolo and Greene start for the Reds in 2022.

We’ve seen both Greene and Lodolo only once this spring, but I’m sure we’ll see more of the young pitching prospects in Cactus League action. I’d expect both to begin the season in the minors, but given Lodolo’s age and college experience, he may get a promotion to Double-A Chattanooga while Greene starts the 2021 season at Advanced-A Dayton.

I’m sure we’ll hear the debate all season; who’ll be the first to make their major league debut? As far as stuff is concerned, Hunter Greene has the advantage. But, when taking into account control and command of his pitches, Nick Lodolo is much more advanced at this point in his career.

While we haven’t yet seen the Cincinnati Reds take the field for Opening Day 2021, it’s always fun to look ahead. I feel confident that Wade Miley’s time in Cincinnati will come to a close after the upcoming season. Miley has a $10M team-option for the 2022 season or a $1M buyout.

Whether both Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are in a Reds’ uniform beyond 2021 is yet to be determined, and the team’s success or failure of the 2021 season may have a lot to do with who’s taking the mound in 2022. If the Reds make a playoff push during the upcoming season, both Gray and Castillo could return the following season.