Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the Opening Day roster 1.0

With pitchers and catchers reporting, what’s the Reds 2021 roster look like?

Spring training has started and the Cincinnati Reds are in Goodyear, Arizona readying for the 2021 season. Pitchers and catchers reported earlier this week and position players are expected to arrive in the next few days. While there’s still time for trades and free agent signings, what might the Opening Day roster look like?

It’s always hard to predict what will happen. Word came down today that pitcher Brandon Bailey will undergo Tommy John surgery, eliminating any hope the front office had in the right-hander contributing to this year’s team. Bailey was thought to be in the mix for Cincinnati’s bullpen this season, a part of the team that has already seen a great deal of turnover.

We projected what the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day lineup would look like shortly after the 2020 season. Looking back, at those predictions, Cincinnati did decide to let one of their backstops go, but it wasn’t Tucker Barnhart, but rather Curt Casali. We also suspected Archie Bradley would be with the team this season, but the club chose to non-tender the right-hander earlier this winter.

A few players are certainties, while others are giant question marks. The Reds have yet to make a splash in the free agent market and most casual observers would say that the team lacks a starting shortstop. Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani left in free agency, so there’s also the matter of filling out the starting rotation.

The Cincinnati front office has cut payroll while trying to remain competitive in what will likely be one of the weaker divisions in all of baseball for the upcoming season. Will this roster be enough to put the Reds into the postseason for a second consecutive season?

Reds roster predictions: Starting rotation (5)

Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen

The Cincinnati Reds starting rotation will look much different in 2021 than it did last season. Cy Young-winner Trevor Bauer has joined the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers and Anthony DeSclafani is now in the Bay Area with former battery mate Curt Casali as part of the San Francisco Giants rotation.

Last season, Sonny Gray was the Reds Opening Day starter, but the former Vanderbilt Commodore may have some competition for that spot this season. Luis Castillo will likely be the team’s No. 1 starter and get the ball on April 1st versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Gray and Castillo will form a terrific one-two punch this season.

Tyler Mahle really came into his own last season. It was assumed in spring training that Mahle would optioned to Triple-A Louisville to begin his 2020 campaign, but an injury to DeSclafani opened the door for the California native to enter the season as part of the starting rotation. Mahle grabbed the reins and never looked back. He looks to be cemented as the No. 3 starter.

Wade Miley had a season he’d like to forget. After putting up fantastic numbers as a member of the Houston Astros in 2019, Miley never got going last year and injuries had a lot to do with it. The left-hander will be looking to bounce back in 2021.

Finally, it seems like Michael Lorenzen has the edge when it comes to snagging that final spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation. Lorenzen has been a starter before and adding him into the mix allows David Bell to deploy the right-hander as a pinch runner, pinch hitter, or an additional outfielder on days he’s not slated to pitch.

Reds roster predictions: Relief pitchers (8)

Amir Garrett, Sean Doolittle, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone, José De León, Jeff Hoffman, Noé Ramirez, Cam Bedrosian

Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims will be battling for the closer’s job all spring. I don’t expect either to win the job outright, but rather I foresee David Bell going with the pitcher who matches up best with the opposing team’s lineup in the ninth inning. If it’s a left-handed dominant lineup, you’ll see AG get the ball. But, if there’s mix of left-handed and right-handed batters, I think the ball goes to Sims.

Sean Doolittle did very little in 2020 to inspire much confidence, but if the veteran left-hander can return to the player he was in 2018-2019, then the Reds have another weapon they can deploy late in games. During that two-year stretch, Doolittle posted a 3.00 ERA, recorded 54 saves, and struck out 126 batters.

Tejay Antone showcased his skills during his rookie season in 2020. While I think there’s an outside chance Antone makes it into the starting rotation, I believe he’ll ultimately end up in the bullpen. Jeff Hoffman, who came over from Colorado after the Reds dealt Robert Stephenson to the Rockies, is out of minor-league options and likely makes the squad out of camp.

José De León had a disastrous 2020 season, but after a successful run in the Puerto Rican Winter League, the former top prospect looks to find a home in the Cincinnati bullpen. Noé Ramirez, who came over in the trade with the Los Angeles Angels for Raisel Iglesias, is s surefire bet to be part of the relief corps.

Finally, look for Cam Bedrosian, who was recently signed to a minor-league contract, to battle it out with the likes of Sal Romano, Jesse Biddle, and Ryan Hendrix for that final spot in the bullpen. I’ll give the edge to Bedrosian for now, but don’t be so quick to close the book on Big Sally.

Reds roster predictions: Reserves (5)

Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson, Alex Blandino, Dee Strange-Gordon, Tyler Naquin

This will be one of the most intriguing camp battles to watch; who snags the final spots on the Cincinnati Reds bench. Nick Senzel is a given and will find his name in the starting lineup on plenty of occasions during the 2021 season. Tyler Stephenson is a virtual lock to be Tucker Barnhart’s backup, and he’ll also be in the starting lineup quite often during the upcoming season.

The final few spots, however, are a toss up. Alex Blandino has one minor-league option remaining, so the possibility of the former first-round pick starting the 2021 season at Triple-A Louisville is a very real possibility. However, I believe Blandino is a dark horse candidate to win the shortstop job outright during spring training, and will make a strong push to be on the Opening Day roster.

Dee Strange-Gordon brings versatility to the Reds lineup, and I do believe that David Bell and his staff will give the left-handed hitting speedster some time at shortstop this spring. While I view Strange-Gordon as more of an outfielder, the position he’s played most often over the past few seasons is second base.

Challenging for the final spot in the outfield will be the trio of Aristides Aquino, Tyler Naquin, and Mark Payton. I would also caution fans not to sleep on Scott Heinemann either. There’s a chance that Kyle Holder could make the cut as a Rule 5 draftee, but I’m not sure his glove is enough to allow him to enter the conversation.

Payton has two minor-league options remaining, so I’m assuming he’ll be opening the season at Triple-A Louisville unless he absolutely sets the world on fire during Cactus League play. That narrows the choice down to Naquin and Aquino. While I’m a big fan of The Punisher, he hasn’t been the same since August of 2019.