Cincinnati Reds: Three reasons to avoid trading for Willy Adames

What are the downfalls if the Reds make a deal for Willy Adames?

The Cincinnati Reds need a shortstop. As it stands currently, Cincinnati would enter the 2021 season with either Kyle Farmer or José García playing the position. Farmer is a fine ballplayer, but it better suited for a utility role, and García only has 67 major league at-bats. Trading for Willy Adames is a possibility, but there are some concerns if the Reds and Rays swing a deal.

Cincinnati completely missed the boat this winter. The front office had one major goal and it was to upgrade the shortstop position. Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius, and even Freddy Galvis have all signed elsewhere. Even last night, the Kansas City Royals agreed to a deal with Hanser Alberto. If the Reds want to upgrade, it’s going to have to come through a trade.

Tampa Bay’s starting shortstop isn’t necessarily “on the market”, but the presence of baseball’s No. 1 prospect, Wander Franco, waiting in the wings makes Adames expendable. The Rays have consistently shown a propensity to offload players sooner rather than later; a strategy that’s worked out well for them as evidenced by their trip to the World Series last year.

Adames represents aa clear upgrade over Farmer and García. Making a trade for thee Dominican native would solidify the shortstop position for years to come and allow Cincinnati to move Farmer around the diamond while also bringing García up through the farm system. However, there are some drawbacks to trading for Adames. What might those be?

1. The Reds would have to give up A LOT to land Willy Adames.

The Tampa Bay Rays are not in any rush to move Willy Adames, but the team’s senior vice president of baseball operations and general manager Erik Neander will not want to miss out on an opportunity to improve his ball club for the long haul. After dealing Blake Snell to the San Diego Padres earlier this winter, it’s obvious that the Rays feel confident in the way they do business.

In order to bring Willy Adames to the Cincinnati Reds, general manager Nick Krall will have to get creative. Tampa Bay is a low-budget organization, so any potential deal would likely center around young prospects who’ve yet to reach the major leagues or pre-arbitration eligible players. Who might that include?

The Reds have a few players who fit that mold that may entice the Rays to make a deal. Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, and Tyler Mahle are some of the major league-ready talent Neander could target. In terms of prospects, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Rece Hinds, Michael Siani, and Jonathan India all hold a certain level of value as well.

Willy Adames will not come cheap. Even though the Rays’ top prospect Wander Franco is ready for The Show, there’s no rush to get the 19-year-old to the big leagues right away. In fact, Joey Wendle could hold down the fort until midseason, and the Rays could then elevate Franco the active roster.

3. Some of Willy Adames’ stats are concerning.

While he’s a very well-rounded shortstop, not every single stat that Willy Adames puts up is mind-blowing or eye-catching. In fact, some of them are a bit concerning. While Adames’ stat line is better than anything Reds Country has seen in some time, the front office needs to be discerning about what they’re willing to give up in order to land the 25-year-old.

Sure, Adames checks a lot of boxes for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s young and under team-control for the next four years. That, in an of itself, is a high selling point for a Cincinnati franchise that has been intent on selling pieces and reducing costs all offseason. But, Adames does have some flaws.

One look at Willy Adames’ slash line from last year will make most Cincinnati fans giddy. Heck, the Rays’ shortstop hit .259/.332/.481 and slugged eight home runs while posting a 124 OPS+. However, Adames had an OPS of just .742 through his first two big league seasons.

According to FanGraphs, Adames posted a strikeout-rate of 36.1% last season. That’s a huge jump from where he was in 2019 (26.2%). Defensively, Adames committed nine errors, and was responsible for just two defensive runs saved (DRS). In terms of the new metric via Baseball Savant, Outs Above Average Adames posted -6 OAA.

These are not reasons to completely avoid trading for Willy Adames, but it should lessen the return Nick Krall and the Cincinnati Reds front office are comfortable surrendering. Adames would be a fine addition to the Reds, but there are some things to think about before swinging a deal.