Cincinnati Reds: This is the perfect starting rotation for the 2021 season

What would the best-case scenario be for the Reds rotation in 2021?

The Cincinnati Reds had one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball last season, but that ship has sailed. However, with the depth of the team’s farm system and perhaps a sneaky-good free agent signing, Cincinnati’s rotation could be the strength of the team once again in 2021. What would the Reds’ perfect starting rotation look like next season?

We recently examined what the Reds “perfect” lineup would be, so it seemed only natural to turn to the starting rotation. However, the same rules apply, so let’s lay out some guidelines for this exercise. It is highly unlikely that Trevor Bauer will re-sign with the Cincinnati Reds, so don’t look for the Cy Young winner among the five names on this list.

Furthermore, we’ve seen Cincinnati’s front office deal Raisel Iglesias to the Los Angeles Angels and non-tender catcher Curt Casali and reliever Archie Bradley. I don’t know exactly what Nick Krall is up to, but is seems to fall somewhere between a rebuild and trying to contend.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll operate under the assumption that the Reds have a payroll similar to what we saw in 2019, not 2020. Therefore, let’s not get carried away and look at free agent targets like Jake Odorizzi and Mashahiro Tanaka. If the Reds add a starter in free agency, its unlikely to be one of the bigger names on the open market.

We’re also going to avoid blockbuster trade predictions. This goes both ways, so in other words, don’t expect Sonny Gray to be absent from this list despite the recent trade rumors. That should make a lot fans throughout Reds Country very happy. So, what might the Cincinnati Reds perfect starting rotation look like in 2021?

2. Luis Castillo, Reds right-handed pitcher

As I said earlier, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are interchangeable atop the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. Castillo was the Opening Day starter in 2019, and may well reprise that role in 2021. If we’re talking about the perfect starting rotation, La Piedra is most definitely in the conversation.

Castillo had a tough go of it in 2020, but rebounded well down the stretch and performed very well in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves. Castillo enters this offseason, his first-year of arbitration eligibility, with a huge pay raise on the horizon.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Castillo can expect to take home between $3M-$5.8M in 2021. Nick Krall and the rest of the Cincinnati Reds front office need to do everything they can to work out a longterm deal with Castillo. If it’s not a priority this winter, it will be this time next year.

While it’s Trevor Bauer who drew most of the kudos for his performance last season, if you take 2019 and 2020 into account, Castillo is arguably the better pitcher. Castillo has a lower ERA (3.35) than Bauer (3.78) and a lower WHIP (1.166) than the 2020 NL Cy Young winner (1.133).

Luis Castillo is a bonafide ace and under team control for the next three seasons. Of all the players currently on Cincinnati’s roster, La Piedra may be the most un-tradable. Castillo is definitely part of the perfect Cincinnati Reds rotation in 2021.

3. Tyler Mahle, Reds right-handed pitcher

Don’t look now, but Tyler Mahle is ascending to where many scouts thought he would. The 26-year-old was an afterthought entering the 2020 season, but injuries to Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani helped Mahle snag a spot in the starting rotation and he never relinquished it throughout the entire season.

Mahle really impressed me last season. The right-hander went 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 10 games including nine starts. Like Luis Castillo, Mahle is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and will receive a nice bump in pay heading into 2021.

Mahle was taken in the seventh-round of the 2013 MLB Draft out of Westminster High School in California and was among the Reds best prospects by the end of the 2016 minor league season. According to MLB Pipeline, Mahle jumped from No. 30 in Cincinnati’s farm system all the way up to No. 7. Last season, he finally realized his potential.

Tyler Mahle has been steadily improving since breaking into the major leagues, but in 2020, his stats took a major leap forward. Mahle’s strikeouts per nine innings jumped from 8.95 in 2019 to 11.33 according to FanGraphs. While his walk-rate returned to where it had been prior to the 2019 season, Mahle strikeout-rate climbed to nearly 30%.

Mahle and Castillo appear to be fixtures in the Cincinnati Reds rotation for the foreseeable future. Much like was mentioned earlier with Castillo, if the Reds front office thinks they have a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter for the next few years, locking up Mahle to a longterm deal may prove to be a subtle, yet solid move moving forward.

4. Nick Lodolo, Reds left-handed pitcher

Hey, we said “perfect” starting rotation, right? If the Cincinnati Reds are ready to head into 2021 with the mindset of competing for the National League Central Division crown, then former first-round pick Nick Lodolo needs to be in the rotation.

I know we’ve not yet seen a lot out of the former Texas Christian standout, and the lack of a minor league season in 2020 definitely didn’t help Lodolo’s development. That said, the left-hander was an advanced arm coming out of college, and many experts and scouts projected the 6-foot-6 southpaw to be in the big leagues by 2021.

According to MLB Pipeline, Lodolo is the Reds No. 1 prospect. Taken with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Lodolo’s command is what sets him apart from other young pitchers. The 22-year-old has a sinking fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s and will mix in a changeup and slider.

Would it be a risk for Cincinnati to throw Lodolo to the wolves having not played above A-Ball? Well, last season, out of desperation for what the front office assumed to be a lost season, we saw the Reds insert José García into the starting lineup as the team’s shortstop. García hadn’t played above A-Ball before getting the call midway through last season.

We also saw the Chicago White Sox turn to rookie hurler Garrett Crochet after drafting him in the 2020 MLB Draft, so there’s some precedent for giving Nick Lodolo a shot out of the gates. The concern may lie with whether or not the lefty is ready for a full season of 30-plus starts. If Lodolo is not on the Opening Day roster, I’d still expect him to make his major league debut next season.

5. Wade Miley, Reds left-handed pitcher

Okay, I know many fans throughout Reds Country were not happy about Wade Miley‘s performance, or lack thereof in 2020. However, with the money owed to the southpaw in 2021, I can’t envision Cincinnati moving on from the 34-year-old. After signing a two-year/$15M contract last winter, Miley will almost definitely be part of the Cincinnati Reds rotation next season.

Now, if we enter next season with Miley as the No. 5 starter, I can live with that. After all, in 2019, the left-hander put up some fabulous numbers while pitching for the Houston Astros. That season, Miley was 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA.

I’d also expect Miley to be on a short leash next season. Heck, we saw that in 2020 when down the stretch, David Bell moved the lefty to the bullpen for his final two appearances of the season. Overall, Miley saw action in just six games and surrendered nine earned runs over 14.1 innings of work.

Miley is not Cincinnati’s only option to take that final spot in the rotation. Michael Lorenzen has been rumored to be in the mix, as has last year’s rookie Michael Lorenzen. We mentioned Nick Lodolo in the previous slide, and the Reds’ first-round pick from the 2019 MLB Draft will surely be considered as well.

Cincinnati dealt former first-round pick Robert Stephenson to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Jeff Hoffman. Though he’s been a reliever throughout a good portion of his career, Nick Krall has mentioned the newly acquired right-hander as a potential starter as well. Don’t dismiss José De León either. A former top prospect with Tampa Bay, De León dealt with injuries throughout 2020.

Provided the Cincinnati Reds do not trade Sonny Gray this offseason, I think it’s safe to say that we know at least three of the five members of next year’s rotation. Miley is, more than likely, set to occupy a spot in the starting rotation as well. Would the Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani on a one-year deal? Might they swing a trade later this offseason? Hunter Greene isn’t in the mix, is he?