Cincinnati Reds: 3 surprise non-tender candidates

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CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 02: Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds falls after swinging and missing a pitch. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Will the Reds surprise us with those players they choose to non-tender today?

Today is the deadline for the Cincinnati Reds to tender contracts to both arbitration eligible and pre-arbitration eligible players. A few players like Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Amir Garrett are sure-fire locks to make the cut. But, are there any surprises who might be non-tendered today?

The Reds have surprised fans the past two seasons, saying goodbye to Billy Hamilton following the 2018 season and last year non-tendering shortstop José Peraza. Both were good decisions, but it’s doubtful that most fans saw those moves coming. Which players might come as shock if they’re non-tendered today?

1. Jesse Winker, Reds Outfielder

While I don’t expect to see Jesse Winker among those non-tendered today, I would not be shocked. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Winker is likely to make between $2-$3.4M next season. Quite frankly, that’s a bit much for a player who was used almost exclusively as a designated hitter last season.

With the universal DH up in the air heading into the 2021 season, it stands to reason that Cincinnati’s front office may be on fence regarding Winker’s future with the team. He’s yet to complete a full season without spending a prolonged period of time on the injured list and his fielding is sub-par.

There’s also the matter of the Cincinnati Reds overcrowded outfield. After seeing Shogo Akiyama receive consideration for a Gold Glove in left field, you’d have to assume that last year’s free agent acquisition has a leg up on the position. Nick Castellanos and Nick Senzel should fill out the other two-thirds of the outfield, and Aristides Aquino is out of minor league options.

Ultimately, I expect Jesse Winker to be on the team next season and receive a considerable amount of playing time. Winker did, after all, lead all Reds position players in WAR (1.1) and OPS (.932). If Winker was non-tendered today, I’d be surprised, but not shocked.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 24: Curt Casali #12 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a home run. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

2. Curt Casali, Reds Catcher

Like Jesse Winker, I expect Curt Casali to survive today’s non-tender deadline, but his future with the Cincinnati Reds is very much up in the air. If Nick Krall and the front office are ready to commit to a catching tandem of Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Stephenson next season, Cincinnati could save some money by non-tendering Casali.

Casali is assumed by MLB Trade Rumors to take home between $1.8M-$2.4M next season. That’s incredibly affordable for a catcher with Casali’s resumé. The right-handed hitting backstop appeared in 31 games and posted a 126 OPS+.

The biggest question mark in terms of Casali’s future with the Reds has nothing to do with him and everything to do with Stephenson. Last year’s rookie has the makings of a talented, young catching prospect who can not only defend, but also hit. Barnhart is a defense-first catcher and Casali, while he has some pop in his bat, is a better defender than he is a hitter.

In the end, I expect Cincinnati to tender Curt Casali for the 2021 season. If for no other reason, the Reds should do so in order to retain his rights and then trade him this winter. A catcher with Casali’s production is incredibly valuable, and even if the front office decides to go with a combination of Barnhart and Stephenson behind the plate, Casali could fetch a nice return in a trade.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 16: Archie Bradley #23 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

3. Archie Bradley, Reds relief pitcher

This one all comes down to money. Will the Cincinnati Reds be able to reach a “pre-tender” deal with Archie Bradley, tender him a contract for the 2021 season, or non-tender last year’s trade deadline acquisition? I think Bradley is easily the biggest mark heading into today.

Bradley was acquired by Cincinnati from Arizona at the trade deadline. The Reds, in turn, sent Josh VanMeter and highly-rated outfield prospect Stuart Fairchild to the Diamondbacks. Bradley, in his final year of arbitration, is estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to make between $4.3-$5.7M.

Normally, you wouldn’t bat an eye at that number, but the coronavirus pandemic and loss of revenue has teams looking to save money this offseason. The Cincinnati Reds are committed to $100M+ in guaranteed contract heading into next season, and that does not include those players who are arbitration and pre-arbitration eligible.

If you look at the relief corp, assuming Michael Lorenzen remains in the bullpen, the quartet of he, Bradley, Amir Garrett, and Raisel Iglesias will account for approximately $19M next season. That means half of the Cincinnati bullpen will account for almost $20M. Yikes!

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Archie Bradley is estimated to take home the biggest payday among the Reds up for arbitration. It’s hard to envision Cincinnati’s front office giving up on a trade acquisition after just six games, but the current economic climate could dictate that they do just that.

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