Cincinnati Reds: 4 free agents worth overpaying this offseason

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PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 04: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds in action. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

If the Reds are going to spend big this winter, these four players should be atop the list.

As a smaller market team, it’s always hard to envision the Cincinnati Reds overpaying for the services of a free agent. However, last offseason, we saw the Reds front office swing big with longterm deals divvied out to Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, and Shogo Akiyama. Could Cincinnati spend big once again this offseason?

The pandemic-shortened season has taken a toll on the owners’ pocketbooks. We’ve seen several players have their club-options declined and fans should look for several arbitration eligible players to be cut loose in the coming weeks as teams look to cut payroll as much as possible. The uncertainty of the 2021 season will have owners unlikely to spend big this winter.

However, a few players may be worth the high-dollar salary they’re sure to command on the open market. Players may not make as much as they would have during a normal 162-game season, but some top shelf free agents are sure to secure longterm contracts worth market value. Some players may even land a contract above market value.

While not an exact science, MLB Trade Rumors has provided us with what the Top 50 free agents can expect to sign for this offseason. We’ll use this as a template to see which four free agent players the Cincinnati Reds should overpay in order to secure their services for the 2021 season. Cincinnati has several holes, so there’s certain to be a few free agents worth signing.

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 27: Didi Gregorius #18 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on during the fourth inning. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images) /

1. Didi Gregorius, Shortstop

It’s time for the Reds to bring Didi Gregorius back home. Gregorius made his MLB debut with Cincinnati back in 2012. He played just eight games for the Reds before being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of a three-team deal that brought Shin-Soo Choo to the Queen City. Gregorius is the top shortstop available this winter.

Gregorius is not an elite defender, but has enough skills to hold down the fort at shortstop. According to FanGraphs, Gregorius has accounted for -7 defensive runs saved during his big league career. But, if the Reds sign Gregorius, they’re doing so for his bat, not his glove. Gregorius returned to form last season after missing half the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Cincinnati went into the 2020 season with Freddy Galvis as the team’s starting shortstop. Multiple defensive gaffes and a poor batting average led to Galvis losing his starting spot as the team’s shortstop with David Bell instead turning to José García. The Reds top shortstop prospect showed he had the chops to play the position defensively, but the rookie needs more seasoning in order to reach his potential.

The Reds top internal option to fill the role at shortstop next season is Kyle Farmer. I love Farmer as much as the next guy, but to consider him as the team’s starting shortstop is a bit of a stretch. MLB Trade Rumors actually predicts Gregorius will sign a three-year deal with Cincinnati for $39M. With an average annual value (AAV) of $13M, that feels about right, though the Reds may have to offer a bit more.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – AUGUST 21: Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches during the 1st inning. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

2. Jake Odorizzi, Starting pitcher

Obviously, the Cincinnati Reds would love to re-sign Trevor Bauer, but if he goes elsewhere in free agency, signing Jake Odorizzi would be a nice consolation prize. Odorizzi missed much of last season with a myriad of injuries, but in 2019, the right-hander went to his first All-Star Game. The Reds need a solid starter to help boost their beleaguered offense.

Odorizzi suffered a back injury before the season that put him on the injured list, then was struck in the chest by a line drive that sent him to the IL with abdomen injury before a blister shut him down for the rest of the 2020 season. In all, Odorizzi pitched just 13.2, though he struck out 12 batters over that time.

If you eliminate last season, Odorizzi was trending in the right direction since joining the Minnesota Twins. His strikeout-rate went from 22.8% to 27.1% and his walk-rate from 9.8% to 8.1% according to FanGraphs. Odorizzi doesn’t give up a lot of home runs either, as he was responsible for just 26 during the 2018 and 2019 seasons combined. Bauer accounted for 34 homers in 2019 alone.

With Trevor Bauer likely to land a substantial deal this offseason, that leaves Marcus Stroman as the second-best starting pitcher on the market. With needy teams like the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox likely to bid against one another for the services of the top two starters on the market, Cincinnati may have to overpay if they wish to maintain some top level talent among their starting staff.

ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 30: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds warms up prior to Game One of the National League Wild Card Series . (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /

3. Trevor Bauer, Starting pitcher

Should the Cincinnati Reds re-sign Trevor Bauer? I think everyone throughout Reds Country would love to see it. But, the price tag may be too much. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Bauer could sign a four-year deal worth upwards of $128M. That’s an AAV $32M. Can Cincinnati afford to pay Bauer $32M per year?

The biggest question for Cincinnati might not center around dollars and cents. Bauer has made it clear that money is not his only desire. The right-hander obviously isn’t going to short change himself too much, but he’s referenced his happiness and winning as factors that will help him make a decision this winter.

Bauer has a great rapport with catchers Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali, both of whom figure to be with the Reds next season. Trevor Bauer has also spoken highly of Cincinnati’s pitching coach Derek Johnson. Might Johnson and David Bell devise a way to allow Bauer to pitch every fourth day like he desires? If so, that could be a major selling point for the California native.

The Reds may have to overpay in order to keep Trevor Bauer. But rather than offering the likely Cy Young winner a four-year deal, what if Cincinnati puts together a two-year offer to Bauer? Would Trevor Bauer sign a two-year/$75M contract? That would keep Bauer in the Queen City through 2022 and allow young prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to continue their development.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 06: Marcus Semien #10 of the Oakland Athletics fields ground ball. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

4. Marcus Semien, Shortstop

If the Cincinnati Reds cannot land Didi Gregorius, signing Marcus Semien may be a solid backup plan. We stated earlier that the Reds cannot go into the season without addressing the shortstop position and Semien is one of the better middle infielders available this winter. Semien is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to sign for one-year at $15M.

Given that the Reds are hopeful for José García to grow into the shortstop position with some more seasoning int the minor leagues next season, adding a player like Semien on a one-year deal may be the ideal scenario for Cincinnati. The Philadelphia Phillies did the same thing with Didi Gregorius last offseason and it paid off well.

Semien, just like Gregorius last winter, is not headed into free agency on a high note. The former sixth-round pick hit just .223 last season and the .679 OPS was his worst since he played just 64 games for the Chicago White Sox in 2014. Semien finished third in the AL MVP race in 2019 while hitting .285 with 33 home runs and a career-best .892 OPS.

Next. 3 free agents the Reds must avoid signing

Marcus Semien has been grouped in with Andrelton Simmons as the second-tier of shortstops available this winter, but I believe Semien is much better than Simmons. While Simmons’ glove may be superior, that was definitely not the case last season. Semien is a fine defensive shortstop in his own right with 13 defensive runs saved during his career according to FanGraphs.

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