Cincinnati Reds: Way-too-early roster projections for 2021 season

Who will be on the Reds Opening Day roster on April 1, 2021?

The Cincinnati Reds 2020 season came to an end in Atlanta on Thursday. The Reds dropped Game 2 of the National League Wild Card Series to the Braves 5-0. While Cincinnati’s pitching was stellar in Games 1 and 2, the offense fell apart in the playoffs and failed to score a run. It’s never too early to look forward to next year, right? So, what will the Reds roster look like in 2021?

A quick peek at the Reds free agents to-be reveals a very short list. Likely NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer is the biggest name to enter the free agent market this offseason and he’ll likely be the most coveted pitcher available. Freddy Galvis and Anthony DeSclafani will also hit free agency this offseason, and Nick Castellanos can opt out of his contract.

Other than that, the core of this year’s team is under contract or team-control for the 2021 season. Several Reds player will enter their first year of arbitration eligibility, including Luis Castillo and Jesse Winker. Michael Lorenzen will be entering his final year of arbitration, and his future with the club could go a variety of different ways.

There’s also the matter of the collective bargaining agreement which expires after next season. Will the universal DH be in play next season, as that could greatly affect roster construction. Like we said, it’s early, but it’s always fun to look ahead. So, let’s take a way-too-early look at what the 2021 Cincinnati Reds roster might look like.

Reds starting rotation (5)

Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley and Nick Lodolo

Sorry Reds fans, but I can’t see Cincinnati re-signing Trevor Bauer. I hope I’m wrong, but with so many young pitchers in the organization, I find it hard to believe that the ownership is going to shell out $30M-plus per season in order to bring Bauer back to the Queen City. Several other clubs will offer Bauer what he’s looking for, and I think he’ll sign elsewhere.

That said, Cincinnati’s rotation still has the potential to be very good. Obviously, after the horrendous season he had, I can’t envision the Reds investing in Anthony DeSclafani, so there’s likely to be two openings in the starting rotation.

You can go ahead and put Tyler Mahle’s name in permanent ink, as the right-hander has done more than enough to secure a spot in next year’s rotation. Mahle filled in for both DeSclafani and Wade Miley throughout the 2020 season, and in all likelihood, he’ll be the team’s No. 3 starter next season.

The Reds gave Miley way too much money to see him pitch out of the bullpen, so I think you might as well get used to the lefty in Cincinnati’s rotation next season. It’s not as bad as you might think, as injuries slowed any type of momentum Miley may have acquired in 2020. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt heading into next season, but he’ll be on a short leash.

As for the No. 5 starter, I think you’ve got a toss up between several pitchers. I’m leaning towards Cincinnati giving that spot to Nick Lodolo. Tejay Antone will certainly have something to say about it as well, but Lodolo was drafted in 2019 and the thought was that his ascension to the majors wouldn’t take very long. I’m thinking the Reds give him every chance to win the job in spring training.

Reds starting lineup (8)

Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, José García, Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Senzel and Nick Castellanos

Let’s go on the assumption that the universal designated hitter does not return in 2020, though I have a sneaking suspicion that it will. However, for this projection we’re going with just eight players. Three of the four infielders should come as no surprise to anyone. Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez, if healthy, will be on the field for Opening Day.

As for shortstop, with Freddy Galvis entering free agency, it’s incredibly unlikely Cincinnati re-signs him. If that’s the case, look for José García to be given the keys to the starting gig at shortstop. I do, however, think that Kyle Farmer will be given a long look in spring training and David Bell may platoon the two throughout the season.

As for catcher, that may be the biggest change we see during the offseason. Will the Reds look to trade Tucker Barnhart? Does the front office bring back Curt Casali? One thing is for sure, Tyler Stephenson belongs in the big leagues, and whether he’s starting or not on Opening Day, he should be on the 26-man roster.

As for the outfield, Shogo Akiyama will be back and so will Nick Senzel. If the DH is back in 2021, then Jesse Winker is your guy. As for Nick Castellanos, I don’t see any way in which he opt out of his contract heading into this winter.

Castellanos didn’t have a great season and who knows what the market is going to look like? It wasn’t as if Castellanos was highly sought after last winter, and Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent again in this offseason. Go ahead and pencil in Castellanos as your starting right fielder in 2021.

Reds relievers (8)

Lucas Sims, Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Archie Bradley, Tejay Antone, Raisel Iglesias, Sal Romano and José De León

I feel confident about four of the eight players listed. Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims, Archie Bradley and Raisel Iglesias will all be part of Cincinnati’s bullpen next season. As for Michael Lorenzen and Tejay Antone, I think they’ll be competing for a spot in the Reds starting rotation.

The battle for that final spot in the Reds rotation will dictate how the bullpen lines up. Lorenzen and Antone both showed themselves capable of starting, but where are the most valuable to David Bell and Derek Johnson? I’ll still go with Lodolo for now, but Lorenzen’s ability to be a two-way player would benefit the club more if he were a starting pitcher.

Will Iglesias be the closer next season? To begin the season, I’ll say yes. However, as the season wanes, I think we may see Lucas Sims make the transition to be the one locking things down in the ninth inning. Sims’ stuff is filthy, and if it’s not next season, look for Sims to be the Reds closer in 2022.

For now, let’s give the final two spots in the Cincinnati bullpen to Sal Romano and José De León. Romano played very little and was left off the postseason roster, but Big Sally just seems to hang around. De León is a solid pitcher who received a few different opportunities this season, but never received a consistent shot at sticking in the big leagues. I think he’ll get that next season.

So, what do you think Reds Country? Is that enough to get the Cincinnati Reds back to the playoffs in 2021? If not, who should they target in free agency? Do you think the front office does enough to bring back Trevor Bauer? Will Nick Castellanos stick around for one more season? We’ll find out soon enough.