MLB Playoffs preview: Reds and Braves battle to advance to NLDS

The Braves are no strangers to October baseball

Celebrating their third consecutive National League East Division crown, the Braves have some demons to exorcise. Last year’s season-ending playoff defeat was as miserable as a franchise can experience. In the decisive Game 5 at home, the Braves came to bat in the bottom of the first inning trailing by 10 runs in a completely deflating 13-1 drubbing courtesy of the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Braves enter the MLB Playoffs as one of the best hitting teams in the National League. Their .349 OPB and .483 slugging marks lead the NL while their .262 batting average and 103 homers are both good enough for second in the senior circuit. In addition, they are a patient bunch. The Braves and Reds tied for the league lead with 239 free passes.

Atlanta’s lineup features a quartet of sluggers who have gone deep at least 13 times this year. Newcomer Marcell Ozuna led the way with 18 round-trippers, while former Reds outfielder Adam Duvall followed close behind with 16 homers. Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman contributed 14 and 13 blasts respectively as well.

Where the Braves are vulnerable is in their starting rotation. Atlanta starters’ 5.51 ERA was the worst in the National League. Additionally, their 1.45 WHIP and 224 strikeouts are each second from the NL cellar. The key for the Reds will be jumping on top early because once the Braves turn the game over to their bullpen, it’s lights out.

Manager Brian Snitker’s relief corps is one of the best in baseball. Their 282 strikeouts and 3.50 ERA both ranked second among NL bullpens. Veteran closer Mark Melancon recorded 11 saves in 13 opportunities, however, the Braves may be without their most lethal bullpen weapon heading into the MLB Playoffs.

During Sunday’s season finale, right-handed setup man Chris Martin left the game with a potential groin injury. Martin has been completely abusing hitters all season long. Covering 18 innings, he’s allowed just two runs on eight hits while walking only three and fanning 20 opposing hitters. At this point, his availability for the series is uncertain.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Braves

The National League Pitcher of the Month for September, Trevor Bauer (5-4 1.73 ERA), opposes Braves ace Max Fried (7-0 2.25 ERA) in the opener. Just how good has Bauer been in September? Perhaps just good enough to become Cincinnati’s first Cy Young Award winner.

Tossing 35 innings, Trevor Bauer compiled a 1.29 ERA and allowed only 22 hits. Throw in 46 strikeouts and you get the picture. Bauer is no stranger to the postseason as he’ll be making his 11th playoff appearance. Throughout his first 10 playoff games, he’s hurled 26 innings and punched out 32 while posting a 3.81 ERA.

Southpaw Max Fried has been among the very best the NL has to offer this year. His seven victories were just one behind the Cubs Yu Darvish for tops in the senior circuit and his 2.9 bWAR was the best mark for a starting pitcher in the National League. However, don’t anticipate Fried going too deep in the ballgame.

Starting 11 games, he accumulated just 55 innings and pitched into the seventh inning only twice this season. Like Trevor Bauer, he has plenty of playoff experience, although this will be his first starting assignment on the postseason stage. In eight relief appearances, he’s been saddled with a 7.11 ERA in 6.1 frames.

Game 2 features a couple of right-handers making their debuts in the MLB Playoffs. Luis Castillo (4-6 3.21 ERA) battles rookie Ian Anderson (3-2 1.95 ERA) of the Braves. When you look across the NL leaderboard for starting pitchers, you’ll see La Piedra’s name prominently displayed.

Luis Castillo ranked sixth with an 11.4 K/9 rate and his 0.64 HR/9 was the third-best mark among NL starters. Also, Castillo’s 58.4% ground ball-rate was the best in the senior circuit. Castillo has been at this best over the past month.

In his last five starts, Luis Castillo is  4-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Throwing 32.2 innings, Castillo has racked up 37 strikeouts while only allowing 22 hits. Finally, right-handers are slugging just .290 against La Piedra in 2020 which is a perfect antidote for the Braves right-handed-hitting sluggers.

Even though he’s only 22-years old, Ian Anderson has not shown any signs of being intimated by the bright lights of Major League Baseball. In fact, it’s Anderson who is doing the intimidating. Through his first 32.1 big league innings, Anderson has whiffed an impressive 41 hitters and yielded just 21 hits.

The third overall pick of the 2016 MLB Draft has been especially nasty to left-handed hitters. Lefties are slashing a feeble .145/.254/.145 without an extra-base hit. Expect a lot of offspeed pitches from Anderson. Per Fangraphs, he uses his curveball and changeup slightly more than 50% of the time.

If it comes down to a decisive Game 3, Reds Country will have to like their chances. Sonny Gray (5-3 3.70 ERA) will take the mound for the Redlegs against Kyle Wright (2-4 5.21 ERA) for Atlanta.  Gray gave the Reds faithful a scare after going on the IL following two subpar outings. However, it appears Gray isn’t too far removed from the dominant presence he’s been since joining the Reds.

Starting two games since being activated, Sonny Gray has tossed 10.1 innings allowing just four hits with 10 strikeouts. Gray has made four postseasons starts and his numbers are excellent. Sporting a 2.95 ERA Gray’s yielded just 14 hits and two long balls in 21.1 innings. A similar performance Friday will have the Reds marching on in the MLB Playoffs.

Even though his overall numbers leave much to be desired, right-hander Kyle Wright is currently pitching the best he has all season. In his last two starts, he’s surrendered just three hits and two runs over 13 innings. However, there are some numbers that will make Reds Country feel much more comfortable.

Lefties absolutely crush against Wright. Slashing .288/.402/.521 with four round-trippers, it’s the type of game you could foresee Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas taking over. Also, Wright is very generous with free passes. Tossing 38 innings this year he walked 24 hitters. For a group as patient as the Reds, they could spell serious trouble for the 24-year-old Vanderbilt alum.

Atlanta great looks to get Braves over the postseason hump

Over the past decade, Freddie Freeman has been one of the best players in the National League and 2020 was no different. The 30-year-old Braves first baseman slashed .341/.462/.640 with 13 homers and 53 RBIs. As if that wasn’t enough, he led the NL in runs scored with 51 and doubles with 23 while producing a 186 OPS+. In other words, a typical Freddie Freeman season.

Just how good has Freeman been over the last decade? Since his rookie season in 2011, he is first among NL first baseman with 857 RBI and second with 239 homers. Additionally, the four-time All-Star is third in bWAR trailing only the Reds Joey Votto and the Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt. Finally, he’s had four Top 10 finishes in the MVP balloting.

The only thing left for Freeman to accomplish is to bring winning baseball back to Atlanta during the MLB Playoffs. Appearing in the postseason four times throughout his career, Freeman has been good in the playoffs, but not his normal dominating self. Slashing a solid .286/.344/.466 Freeman has just two homers and two RBIs in 56 October at-bats.

Throughout his career, Freeman has been a headache for Reds pitching. Appearing in 54 games he’s blasted 10 homers and drove home 32 base runners. However, there is one Reds hurler who gives the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner fits.

I’m not sure what kind of spell Cincinnati closer Raisel Iglesias has over Freeman, but I hope he’ll share it with the rest of the pitching staff. Freeman is hitless in seven plate appearances against Iggy. If it comes down to Freeman versus Iggy, history tells us good things are heading the Reds way.

Now is the time for the Reds to get Joey Votto to the World Series

There’s not much else Joey Votto can do for the Cincinnati Reds. During his 14 years in the Queen City, he’s won an MVP, a Gold Glove and earned six All-Star selections. Votto has led the league in doubles, slugging, OPS twice, walks four times and on-base percentage seven times. It goes without saying he’s one of the greatest Reds ever, but something’s missing.

When Reds Country discusses the greatest players in franchise history, you’ll hear the usual suspects such as Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Barry Larkin. Joey Votto belongs in the same conversation, however, they all have one thing Votto does not and that’s a World Series ring.

This will be Votto’s fourth trip to the MLB Playoffs and for those keeping score at home, that’s twice as many times as Barry Larkin did during his 19 year Reds career. Unlike Larkin, Votto has yet to have his shining moment in the postseason. One series has drastically altered the way Votto’s career has been remembered.

Of course, it always comes back to the Reds epic collapse during the 2012 Division Series loss to the San Francisco Giants. But if the Cincinnati Reds had won that series, Joey Votto’s legend would never be questioned. This is the part of Votto’s story his detractors seem to forget. On July 17th of that year, Votto went on the disabled list with a torn meniscus. He came back on September 4th, but it was obvious he wasn’t at 100%.

Playing on essentially one leg, Joey Votto nearly carried the Reds to the NLCS. Hitting .389 with a .500 OBP, Votto did everything humanly possibly he could during that five-game series, but it was not meant to be. This may be his last chance. Let’s get the GOAT the ring he so richly deserves.

Prediction

I may a little biased, but to me, this is by far the most intriguing matchup during the first round.  You have the powerful hitting and questionable rotation of the Atlanta Braves against the anemic hitting and sparkling rotation of the Cincinnati Reds. It will be a series of contrasts.

The old baseball adage is that good pitching stops good hitting, especially in the MLB Playoffs. Look for that to ring true once again as the Reds win the series in three games and advance in the playoffs for the first time since 1995.