Cincinnati Reds: Last gasp for the postseason starts vs the Cardinals

Cardinals pitching staff has been one of the NL’s best, but…

Thus far, St. Louis manager Mike Shildt has a luxury that any skipper in the game craves before every contest. He knows from the outset, with the staff he and pitching coach Mike Maddux have at their disposal, they’re going to be in the game every single night. An argument can be made that the Cardinals hurlers are the best the National League has to offer.

Entering play Thursday, the St. Louis Cardinals (19-18) trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the senior circuit with a 3.65 team ERA. Additionally, the Redbird staff leads the NL surrendering just 6.8 hits per nine innings. Despite the lofty numbers, there’s reason to believe Shildt and Maddux may not want to get too comfortable.

The Cardinals pitching staff has compiled a 4.72 FIP which is well above the 4.56 league average and the -1.04 difference between their ERA and FIP is the second largest in the National League. One area the Reds will not have to worry about is St. Louis pitchers blowing away Cincinnati hitters.

Currently, the Cardinals are tied for 13th in the NL striking out only 8.1 hitters per nine frames. Next, the pitching staff’s BAbip is completely outside the norm. When opponents put the ball in against Cardinals pitching, they are hitting only .232 which is easily the lowest in the senior circuit. The NL average is .292 for balls put in play. Regression from the Cards staff seems likely.

Calling the Cardinals the best hitting club in the NL Central is not much of a compliment. As a team, they are slashing .243/.337/.384 with a 96 OPS+. In other words, they’re a below-average offensive unit. One thing the Cardinals don’t do is hit for power. Their 31 homers are the fewest in the league and their .384 slugging rate is 13th among all NL clubs.

What the Birds on the Bat do well is playing sparkling defense. Featuring a lineup with three Gold Glove winners in Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong, the Redbirds 26 defensive runs saved above average is second in the league. At age 37, Molina is still gunning down would-be base stealers with relative ease. His 38% caught stealing rate in 2020 is well above the 23% MLB average.

Goldschmidt is firmly in the MVP conversation

Could this finally be the year six-time All-Star Paul Goldschmidt finally captures the elusive MVP award? Three times Goldy has finished among the top three in MVP voting, including a pair of runner up finishes. Even though his 2019 debut season in St. Louis was not up to his normal lofty standards, Goldschmidt is giving the Cardinals faithful exactly what they anticipated this year.

Across the National League offensive leaderboard, you’ll find Goldschmidt’s name littered throughout. The 33-year-old leads the senior circuit with a .461 OBP and ranks fourth with a .333 batting average. Next. his 162 OPS+ currently ranks 10th in the National League.

As all National League fans know these numbers are nothing new for Goldschmidt. Since his rookie season in 2011, Goldy leads the NL with 247 homers. Next, he’s second with 821 RBIs and third with 299 two-baggers. Needless to say, nobody has done more damage at the plate over the last decade.

What may come as a surprise to some is that Goldschmidt is not afraid to swipe a base throughout his career. His 128 stolen bases are good enough for 12th place since 2011 with an 80% success rate while attempting to swipe a bag. Even though Goldschmidt doesn’t run as much as he did early in his career, he’s had five seasons in which he’s stolen 15 bases or more.

It’s been a golden era of first baseman in the National League over the last decade. Between Goldschmidt the Braves Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto of the Reds, you could spend hours debating who’s better and there would be no wrong answer. However, in the first year of his five year deal with the Cardinals, there’s no debate that Paul Goldschmidt will be terrorizing Reds Country for years to come.

Reds mixing youth with veterans

Give the Reds front office credit. They are willing to walk a delicate balance that could provide dividends in the very near future. This past offseason saw the signing of veteran free agents such as Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas while the 2020 season has introduced a trio of rookies who seem to be in the Reds 2021 plans.

Pitcher Tejay Antone, shortstop José García and catcher Tyler Stephenson have all made their MLB debuts this season. Barring anything unforeseen, all three should have prominent roles on next year’s squad. This group, when added to the other young Reds talent, could give the club an exciting core group of young players for years to come.

It’s very possible when the Reds open the 2021 season, four of their everyday regulars (García, Stephenson, Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel) will all be 27-years old or younger. Add a pair of 26-year-olds in pitchers Tyler Mahle and Lucas Sims, and that’s a strong core to compliment veterans like Eugenio Suárez, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo.

Additionally, there’s a couple of former first-round selections who will hopefully be making their debuts in the Redleg rotation in the not too distant future. Right-hander Hunter Greene and southpaw Nick Lodolo could very well be the keys to the Reds future. If these two can find success at the major league level, good times could once again return to the Queen City.

Prediction

Reds Country doesn’t need any more painful reminders of how things have gone in recent years with the Cardinals. It’s ugly and this year hasn’t been any different as the Reds have dropped five of seven against the Redbirds. Unfortunately, the Redlegs have given us no indication this trip to the Gateway City will be anything other than more frustration.

St. Louis is in the driver’s seat in securing a second-place finish and qualifying for the postseason. This weekend’s three-game set against the Reds will only do wonders for their confidence. Look for the Redbirds to take 2of-3 as they move closer to playoffs and the Reds fall closer to oblivion.