Reds vs Cubs: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds take their bumbling act to the Windy City.

Somehow, despite splitting a four-game set with the National League’s worst team, the Cincinnati Reds (18-23) only find themselves two games back for the NL’s final playoff spot. It seems no matter how much the Redlegs stumble, they can’t play themselves out of contention. FAfter 41 games, that’s the best news we have to share.

It’s been a monumental task in 2020 for the Reds to have all three facets of the game: pitching, hitting and defense in sync for nine innings. In spite of an above-average pitching staff, the Reds offense continues to languish in the NL’s cellar with a .211 average. For the Cincinnati offense, it’s been all or nothing.

Entering play on Labor Day, the Reds were one of two teams in the National League, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers, to have three players with 10-plus home runs on the season. Regardless of how many trots around the base paths Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker take, it hasn’t been enough to save the Reds feeble offense.

Cincinnati is fourth in the senior circuit with 64 round-trippers. However, that’s the only positive news for an offensive standpoint. The Reds score nearly 40% of their runs via the long ball which is well above the 28% league average.

It appears the idea of playing small ball and stringing hits together is completely foreign to the Cincinnati Reds offense. However, an argument can be made that the Reds are the unluckiest offensive team in the NL.

The National League average for BAbip (batting average for balls in play) is .292, yet the Reds mark of .237 is far and away the worst in the league. Milwaukee is second from the bottom and their average of .274 is nearly 30 points higher than the Redlegs. But wait, the numbers get more depressing for Reds Country.

When it comes to soft contact, Cincinnati rarely smack weak grounders and lazy fly balls at opponents. Their minuscule 14% soft contact rate is only bested by the hard-hitting Dodgers and Cubs at 13.3% and 13.9% respectively.

Meanwhile, their 39.8% hard contact-rate is just below the league average 40.8% mark. Unfortunately, it seems like one of those years for the Reds offense where every line drive is finding an opponent’s glove. If it wasn’t for bad luck, the Reds would have no luck at all.

Cubs seems destined to return to the playoffs

Despite dropping three of their last four, the Chicago Cubs (24-18) lead the NL Central by 2.5 games and are comfortably in the expanded 2020 playoff picture. After failing to qualify for the postseason last year for the first time since 2014, a return to the postseason is all but assured for the Cubbies.

Pitching has led the way for the North Siders return to the top of the division standings. Cubs starting pitchers have notched a league-high 19 victories and their 219.2 innings pitched is second in the senior circuit. Rookie manager David Ross has gotten the most out of his rotation this season.

Cubs starters average 5.2 innings per outing this year which is third in the National League despite throwing just a league-average 83 pitchers per start. That’s being efficient. However, Ross has maintained a strict 100 pitch limit for his rotation. Six times, Cubbie starters have reached the century mark, yet no one has thrown more than 104 pitches in a contest.

Even though Cubs’ hitters are sporting a soft .230 average, don’t be fooled into thinking it’s a weak offense. The Cubs lead the NL in free passes so far, drawing a 169 of them on the season heading into play Monday. Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward all rank within the top 20 in the NL in earning bases on balls.

The unimpressive 13 stolen bases on the season are deceptive because once the Cubbies reach base they are very aggressive on the base paths. Chicago is tied for the league lead with a 53% extra bases taken rate, and they love to go from first to third.

Thirty-two times this year the Chicago Cubs have taken the extra base on single which ties them for the top spot in the NL. Reds outfielders will need to be aggressive in getting the ball back into the infield on any base hits with runners on the base.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Cubs

Tyler Mahle (1-1 3.90 ERA) takes the mound in the opener versus fellow right-hander Alec Mills (3-3 5.50 ERA) of the Cubs. Reds Country is desperately hoping Mahle can repeat his last performance against the North Siders. Following a couple of first-inning solo homers, Mahle fanned 11 Cubbies over seven hittings without allowing another hit.

The 25-year-old California native has surrendered just five runs over 16.2 innings in his last three outings against Chicago while recording 18 strikeouts. The trio of Willson Contreras, Ian Happ and Jason Heyward are a combined 4-for-38 against Mahle with two extra-base hits. It will take that kind of continued dominance for the Reds to have an opportunity to take Game 1.

It’s been tough going recently for Alec Mills. Over his last five starts, he’s given up a minimum of four runs in those contests. The long ball has plagued Mills so far this season. He’s allowed eight souvenirs in just 37.2 frames, including a trio of blasts from Curt Casali, Joey Votto and Jesse Winker in an August 29th start against the Reds.

If you love a good old fashioned pitching duel, I suggest you tune in Wednesday night as Trevor Bauer (3-3 2.05 ERA) faces Cubs ace Yu Darvish (7-1 1.44 ERA) at the Friendly Confines. The Reds wasted an excellent outing from Bauer Friday night in Pittsburgh as they displayed a level of defense that would give a little league manager nightmares.

Bauer is seeking to avenge a loss from the Cubs and Darvish suffered during the first game of a doubleheader on August 29th in Cincinnati. In that contest, Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo took Bauer deep twice in what has been a one-sided matchup between the two former All-Stars. Lifetime Rizzo is slashing .500/.579/1.000 in 16 at-bats against the Reds right-hander.

Like he has against everyone this year, Darvish made the Reds offense look completely inept.  In the last meeting, tossing six shutout innings, the Japanese import fanned eight Redlegs. This could be a good opportunity for Reds manager David Bell to give Jesse Winker a night off. The left-handed slugger is hitless in a dozen plate appearances versus Darvish.

On the heels of arguably the worst start of his career, Sonny Gray (5-2 3.19 ERA) will be pitching on eight days rest when he squares off against rookie Adbert Alzolay (0-1 2.08 ERA) in the series finale.

To say it wasn’t pretty the last time Gray toed the rubber would be kind. Recording just two outs against the St. Louis Cardinals, Sonny Gray allowed six runs on five hits and three walks in a humiliating 16-2 defeat. Ouch!

Let’s hope that start was just an aberration and nothing is physically wrong with the Reds ace. The team can ill afford to lost Gray for any period of time. Gray has dominated the Cubs in his last five outings against the North Siders, going 4-1 with 1.71 ERA and 41 punch outs in just 31.2 innings. That is the Sonny Gray we hope to see Thursday night.

Adbert Alzolay will be making just his third start of the year to conclude the series. He hurled an inning of scoreless relief against the Reds on August 29th at GABP. The Venezuelan relies heavily on a fastball that averages just below 95 MPH. The right-hander will throw that and a curveball nearly 85% of the time, while occasionally dropping in a changeup to complete his three-pitch arsenal.

The Cubs right-hander making a case for the Cy Young award

When you sign a six-year/$126M contract as Yu Darvish did prior to the 2018 season, expectations are going to be sky-high. Needless to say, following his first two seasons in the Windy City, going just 7-11 and making 39 starts, it appeared this could go down as a colossal swing and miss for the Cubs front office. However, Darvish is proving he may be in fact worth every penny and then some this season.

The four-time All-Star currently leads the NL in wins (7) and ERA (1.44). He also tops the senior circuit with a 314 ERA+ and has compiled a league-best 7.9 strikeout-to-walk rate. Darvish’s 0.880 WHIP trails only Trevor Bauer and the Mets Jacob deGrom among NL starters. That’s getting it done. How do you like him now Cubs fans?

If you look closely, the foundation for the eight-year veteran’s dominance was laid last year. After making just eight starts during his debut campaign in Chicago during the 2018 season due to right triceps tendonitis, Darvish rebounded to take the ball 31 times last year.

Despite a mediocre 6-8 record with a 3.98 ERA, the peripheral numbers indicated Yu Darvish wasn’t far from returning to his previous status as one of the best pitchers in the game.

His WHIP of 1.097 was good enough for ninth in the NL, while his 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings was third in the league. In addition, a strong argument can be made that Darvish was the best pitcher in the NL throughout the second half of the 2019 season.

Darvish was an absolute beast following the All-Star break last year. Making 13 starts, he posted a 2.76 ERA and fanned an incredible 118 batters in just 81.2 innings. Additionally, Darvish compiled an otherworldly 16.9 K/BB rate. In other words, Darvish has been pitching lights out for the past calendar year, so the numbers he’s compiling this year should come as no surprise.

Twice in his career, Yu Darvish has had a top 10 finish in the Cy Young balloting including the runner-up spot for the 2013 season. Barring a late-season collapse, Darvish seems destined to capture the elusive pitching grand prize.