Reds vs Cubs: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Cubs

Tyler Mahle (1-1 3.90 ERA) takes the mound in the opener versus fellow right-hander Alec Mills (3-3 5.50 ERA) of the Cubs. Reds Country is desperately hoping Mahle can repeat his last performance against the North Siders. Following a couple of first-inning solo homers, Mahle fanned 11 Cubbies over seven hittings without allowing another hit.

The 25-year-old California native has surrendered just five runs over 16.2 innings in his last three outings against Chicago while recording 18 strikeouts. The trio of Willson Contreras, Ian Happ and Jason Heyward are a combined 4-for-38 against Mahle with two extra-base hits. It will take that kind of continued dominance for the Reds to have an opportunity to take Game 1.

It’s been tough going recently for Alec Mills. Over his last five starts, he’s given up a minimum of four runs in those contests. The long ball has plagued Mills so far this season. He’s allowed eight souvenirs in just 37.2 frames, including a trio of blasts from Curt Casali, Joey Votto and Jesse Winker in an August 29th start against the Reds.

If you love a good old fashioned pitching duel, I suggest you tune in Wednesday night as Trevor Bauer (3-3 2.05 ERA) faces Cubs ace Yu Darvish (7-1 1.44 ERA) at the Friendly Confines. The Reds wasted an excellent outing from Bauer Friday night in Pittsburgh as they displayed a level of defense that would give a little league manager nightmares.

Bauer is seeking to avenge a loss from the Cubs and Darvish suffered during the first game of a doubleheader on August 29th in Cincinnati. In that contest, Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo took Bauer deep twice in what has been a one-sided matchup between the two former All-Stars. Lifetime Rizzo is slashing .500/.579/1.000 in 16 at-bats against the Reds right-hander.

Like he has against everyone this year, Darvish made the Reds offense look completely inept.  In the last meeting, tossing six shutout innings, the Japanese import fanned eight Redlegs. This could be a good opportunity for Reds manager David Bell to give Jesse Winker a night off. The left-handed slugger is hitless in a dozen plate appearances versus Darvish.

On the heels of arguably the worst start of his career, Sonny Gray (5-2 3.19 ERA) will be pitching on eight days rest when he squares off against rookie Adbert Alzolay (0-1 2.08 ERA) in the series finale.

To say it wasn’t pretty the last time Gray toed the rubber would be kind. Recording just two outs against the St. Louis Cardinals, Sonny Gray allowed six runs on five hits and three walks in a humiliating 16-2 defeat. Ouch!

Let’s hope that start was just an aberration and nothing is physically wrong with the Reds ace. The team can ill afford to lost Gray for any period of time. Gray has dominated the Cubs in his last five outings against the North Siders, going 4-1 with 1.71 ERA and 41 punch outs in just 31.2 innings. That is the Sonny Gray we hope to see Thursday night.

Adbert Alzolay will be making just his third start of the year to conclude the series. He hurled an inning of scoreless relief against the Reds on August 29th at GABP. The Venezuelan relies heavily on a fastball that averages just below 95 MPH. The right-hander will throw that and a curveball nearly 85% of the time, while occasionally dropping in a changeup to complete his three-pitch arsenal.