Cincinnati Reds: Five bold predictions for the second half of 2020 season

What’s going to happen in the second half of the Reds 2020 season?

We’ve reached the midway point of the Cincinnati Reds 2020 campaign and the team is inexcusably sitting at 13-17. However, despite a sub-.500 record through the first half of the pandemic-shortened season, Cincinnati finds themselves just one game out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. What’s going to happen over the final 30 games?

If you would have told me back before spring training that the Reds would be a game out of the playoffs halfway through the 2020 season, I’d have been smiling ear to ear. However, after the coronavirus pandemic has shortened the season to just 60 games and MLB expanded the playoffs to include eight teams, my excitement has been dulled a bit.

This year’s Reds team was built to contend, but several lost opportunities against lesser competition, multiple implosions by the bullpen, inconsistent offense, bad defense and a four-day hiatus from play has left David Bell and the Cincinnati front office with more questions than answers. Where is that team that should be competing for the division crown.

Back-to-back wins over the Milwaukee Brewers offer a glimmer of hope for and it appears that the team’s offense has emerged from its slumber. Cincinnati enters play on Friday with a golden opportunity. The Reds trail the division-leading Chicago Cubs by five games and get three against their division rivals at Great American Ball Park. What will happen in thee second half?

1. The Reds stand pat at the trade deadline.

Don’t get too excited about the upcoming trade deadline. The Reds did a lot of their legwork during the offseason, and while adding a reliever like Kansas City’s Trevor Rosenthal sounds good on the surface, I find it unlikely that the Reds make a move before August 31st.

Where would the Reds add and who would they give up in order to land a piece or two? First, trades are restricted to only those players in the team’s 60-man player pool. I don’t see Cincinnati giving up on any of their top-flight prospects, nor do I see any of the club’s big league talent leaving during a season in which they want to compete.

It makes no sense to add a bat. With the promotion of shortstop prospect José García, there’s no need for the Reds to address any position on the infield dirt. Joey Votto, while not having a good season, has a no-trade clause. No team in their right mind would take on that contract anyway. Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas and aforementioned García will be staying put as well.

The outfield is littered with talent and we’re still waiting on Nick Senzel to return to the injured list. The starting rotation is one of the best in baseball, leaving only the bullpen as a possible area that Dick Williams and Nick Krall may look to target via trade. I just don’t see it. The ascension of Lucas Sims and return of Robert Stephenson make the backend stronger.

2. Sonny Gray wins the NL Cy Young.

Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer have been neck-and-neck all season. The two right-handers are easily two of the best pitchers in the National League. To date, however, Gray has two more starts than Bauer. That may play into his favor when the baseball writers submit their ballots for the prestigious Cy Young Award.

Gray is currently first among all NL starters in strikeouts (55), second in innings pitched (41.2) , fifth in ERA (1.94) and 10th in WHIP (1.01). Gray’s teammate, Trevor Bauer, is at or near the top in all four categories as well. Will the race come down to the two Reds pitchers?

Not if a few other hurlers have anything to say about it. You Darvish of the Chicago Cubs is having a phenomenal season. With a 5-1 record and 1.70 ERA, Darvish looks like the former All-Star during his early days with the Texas Rangers. Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves has also upped his game, especially in the absence of the team’s No. 1 starter, Mike Soroka.

Sonny Gray has put together quite the résumé over the first 30 games, and one would have to believe that David Bell will give his right-hander as many chances as possible to get on the mound over the second half of the season as well. Gray leads the team in starts with seven. Gray has allowed six hits or fewer in 40 straight starts. That’s an MLB record.

3. Nick Castellanos bests Fernando Tatis Jr. to lead the NL in home runs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. might be the biggest name in baseball right now. What the San Diego Padres shortstop has done this season is quite impressive. Tatis Jr. currently the National League in home runs (13) and RBIs (30). Nick Castellanos currently trails the leader for the NL MVP by three homers and seven RBIs. He’s going to catch him in one of the two categories.

Castellanos has surpassed all my expectations. After signing a four-year/$64M contract last winter, most fans expected Castellanos to be a force in the middle of the lineup, but a defensive liability in right field. However, his defense has been better than expected, but it’s his bat that will help Castellanos overtake Tatis Jr. for the home run title by the end of September.

What may be most impressive about Tatis Jr.’s numbers is that he’s doing the majority of damage in Petco Park which is known to be quite pitcher-friendly. Eight of Tatis Jr.’s have come at home. Castellanos hasn’t been picky, launching five homers at home and five on the road.

Castellanos, however, has the advantage of playing 17 of the final 30 games at home. Great American Ball Park is a launching pad for big flies during the heat of the summer, and there’s plenty of warm weather sticking around in the Ohio Valley. Castellanos obliterated a shot off the batter’s eye at Miller Park last night. Look for the slugger to continue his onslaught over the final month-plus of the 2020 season.

5. The Reds win their first-round playoff matchup.

If the Cincinnati Reds get to a best-of-three series, which is the format for the first-round of the 2020 postseason, I like their chances. For a team to be able to send out Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Luis Castillo in three straight games is almost unfair. While the Reds have some ground to make up in the Wild Card and NL Central races, this team is built for a three-game series.

Heck, I even like the Reds chances in a seven-game series. That just means that we’d see the trio of Gray, Bauer and Castillo more than once should a playoff series go the distance. The Reds starting rotation, and, even though they haven’t shown it, offense is tailor-made for the postseason.

The trick for the Reds will be making a run at the postseason. Currently Cincinnati is out of the picture. The Reds are third in the NL Central, but trail the St. Louis Cardinals by just two games and are five games back of the Chicago Cubs.

All the Reds need to do in order to secure a playoff is outlast the Cardinals whose schedule over the final month will be brutal with the addition of multiple doubleheaders in order to offset the team postponing several games due to concerns over the coronavirus. Cincinnati plays St. Louis five times over the next two-plus weeks and must win at least three of those games.

If the Reds cannot overcome the Cardinals lead, then Cincinnati still has the Wild Card. The Philadelphia Phillies currently occupy the final playoff spot and have a one-game lead over the Redlegs. This team is too talented not to make the playoffs. Period!