Reds vs Brewers: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The reeling Reds visit Milwaukee for the final time during the 2020 season.

Following last year’s disappointing offensive performance, the Cincinnati Reds (11-15) front office was determined to address the issue. Shogo Akiyama, Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas all signed free agent deals in an attempt to bolster the woeful offense. Unfortunately, despite the recognizable names and history of success, an argument can be made the offense is worse than ever.

Entering play Sunday, the Reds were last in the National League with an anemic .210 team batting average. An interesting side note is that the five teams comprising the NL Central occupy the bottom five spots in batting average among all NL clubs. Cincinnati is also below league average in on-base percentage and slugging. How can this be?

What makes the issue so exasperating is that the numbers are horrid through nearly every position in the lineup. The only two spots in the order hitting above .208 entering play yesterday were the No. 5 and No. 9 holes.

Jesse Winker is the man most responsible for the success of the No. 5 spot in the batting order with a sizzling .524 mark in that position, while  Kyle Farmer is hitting a blistering .476 in 23 plate appearances at the tail end of the lineup.

Elsewhere the numbers are simply nausea-inducing. Leadoff hitters are batting .198 with a dreadful .304 OBP mark. Even though he’s only hitting .234 leading off, Akiyama has been head and shoulder above Philip Ervin and Joey Votto who have produced .176 and .167 averages respectively from the leadoff position.

Another black hole for the offense has been the spot traditionally inhabited by a team’s best hitter. With the exception of Castellanos, the No. 3 hole has been an abyss for Reds hitters. Eugenio Suárez, Votto and Winker have hit from the third position in the order 21 times this season and all three are hitting .185 or worse when occupying that spot in the lineup. If the Reds want to entertain serious playoff aspirations, the offense needs to start producing immediately.

The Brewers will be tough on the Reds hitters

Any bullpen with Josh Hader (more on him later) at the back end will garner opposing team’s attention. Entering play Sunday, the Milwaukee Brewers (11-15) relief corps leads the NL in strikeouts by a wide margin and the aforementioned Hader is receiving plenty of help. One of those sources of help is from a young arm who appears to be reaching his potential.

Despite being just 24-years old, Freddy Peralta is spending his third season as a member of the Milwaukee pitching staff. Coming off a season in which he accumulated a 5.29 ERA in 39 appearances, the right-hander is becoming a force out of the Brewers bullpen.

Four times Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell has summoned Peralta from the bullpen and he’s more than delivered. Tossing 11 innings in relief, Peralta’s fanned a staggering 22 hitters while allowing just six hits and two runs. Unfortunately, for the NL Central, Counsell has found another righty to team with Peralta.

Rookie Devin Williams has been mowing down opponents in ridiculously easy fashion. Throwing 9.2 frames, the 25-year-old has whiffed 20 of the 41 batters he’s faced this season. Additionally, he’s allowed just four hits and one run. Milwaukee is on the cusp of building a Nasty Boys-like bullpen to secure victories.

The Brew Crew is fortunate the bullpen has been outstanding because the rotation has been less than stellar. Sporting a 4-10 record with a 5.03 ERA, Milwaukee starters have constantly placed the bullpen in precarious positions. No Brewers starter has earned more than one victory entering play Sunday.

As we mentioned earlier the Reds are the worst hitting team in the league and their closest competitor for that dubious honor are the Brewers. Hitting just .214 as a club, Milwaukee is also second from the basement with a miserable .298 OBP. The only two members of the Brewers’ everyday lineup with a 100+ OPS or better are Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura.

Milwaukee closer shows no signs of slowing down

Just imagine for a minute Reds Country, as a team enters the ninth inning with a one-run lead and you can watch the remaining three outs without white-knuckling the arm of your recliner. That’s the luxury Brewers fans experience when closer Josh Hader enters the game. There’s plenty of reasons for Reds fans to be envious.

Since the start of the 2018 season, Hader leads all relievers with a 16.05 K/9 rate and 5.3 fWAR. But wait, there’s more. He also tops the rankings with an 87% LOB rate, BABIP with .216 average and XFIP with a 2.25.  In other words, he’s as dominant a closer as there is in the game.

This season has been no different for the two time All-Star. In seven appearances, Hader’s fanned 12 in 7.1 innings while collecting five saves without allowing a run. That’s getting it done. How has he faired against our beloved Redlegs over his career? About what you would expect.

Appearing in 20 games versus the Reds, Josh Hader has compiled nine saves while striking out an incredible 51 hitters in just 30.2 innings. Unfortunately, the night of April 30, 2018, will always remain a harrowing reminder of Hader’s brilliance for Reds Country.

That evening in Cincinnati, Hader closed out a 6-5 Brewers victory by tossing the final 2.2 innings to persevere the win. And just how did Hader record those final eight outs? By strikeout. Each and every one of them. Of the nine batters he faced, only Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart reached base via a base on balls. It was as dominant a pitching performance as you’ll ever see.

As mentioned earlier, the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen is getting quality outings from Freddy Peralta and Dustin Williams as well. If the Brewers can construct a reliable bridge to Josh Hader, they have the potential of being the best bullpen not only in the NL Central but in the entire league.

Mikey Biceps has turned in a trio of effective outings

No one is going to forget the Michael Lorenzen meltdown in Milwaukee on August 9th anytime soon. In that sixth inning appearance, Lorenzen failed to retire any of the four batters he faced while walking three and allowing one hit. Three of those runners dented the plate to raise his ERA to eye-popping 16.88 mark. It was arguably the worst performance of his career.

Fast forward a couple of weeks and Lorenzen is looking like the once-reliable reliever he’s been the last several seasons for the Reds. In three appearances since the debacle in Milwaukee, Michael Lorenzen has worked seven shutout frames while only allowing four hits. This is what the Reds and their fans had envisioned for the 28-year-old right-hander.

It’s painfully clear that this is the version of Lorenzen that the Cincinnati Reds will need going forward. Outside of Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett, manager David Bell has struggled to find anyone to reliably record outs from the Reds bullpen.

Reds Closer Raisel Iglesias’ appearances remain a constant roller coaster ride while fellow right-hander Nate Jones has been ineffective as well. If the Reds are going to lock down close contest they’ll need the Michael Lorenzen of the past two weeks.

Prediction

The trip to St. Louis continued to go the way of most visits to the Gateway City. In other words, a disaster for the Cincinnati Reds. After dropping 3-of-4 to the Redbirds, Cincinnati is dancing perilously close to the edge of falling out of playoff contention. Even though the calendar has yet to turn to September, the Reds find themselves in a must-win series.

A split will not suffice. Can this Reds team really capture at least three from the Brewers? You betcha. Look for the Reds to take 3-of-4 before returning to GABP for a crucial homestand against the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. It’s go time, Reds.