Reds vs Cardinals: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds season faces a crossroads as they visit the Gateway to the West and the Cardinals.

The next season of American Horror Stories could very well be the Cincinnati Reds (10-12) playing the St. Louis Cardinals on an endless loop as far as Reds Country is concerned. Since 2007, the Redlegs have captured the season series from the Redbirds only once.  That’s not a misprint.  One time.

To say the Cardinals have owned the Reds would be an insult to St. Louis. To put it in perspective, the last pitcher who secured the victory to give the Reds a season series advantage over the Cardinals was Jose Arrendondo. In other words, it’s been a while.

Last night’s doubleheader in Kansas City was a microcosm of the Reds 2020 season to date. Shutout in the first game, the Reds didn’t collect their first base hit until the sixth inning of a seven-inning contest. Even though they were only assessed one error, Reds Country has been holding their collective breath every time a ball is put in into play.

However, in the nightcap, the Reds looked like world-beaters. They smacked four home runs and Trevor Bauer allowed one hit over seven innings as they coasted to a 5-0 win. The only constant for the 2020 Reds has been inconsistency.

It’s not hyperbole to say the next week may hold the key to the Cincinnati Reds season. Their next eight games are on the road against division rivals St. Louis and Milwaukee. A disastrous road trip could doom the 2020 Reds before we hit September.

Redbirds happy to just be on the field

The 2020 season has not been easy for any MLB team, but no other club has endured what the St. Louis Cardinals (6-7) have this season. Following the first five games of the 2020 campaign, St. Louis did not play another game for more than two weeks due to multiple players and staff testing positive for COVID-19. However, it appears reinforcements are on the way.

All-Star shortstop Paul DeJong and arch Reds villain Yadier Molina have both been cleared to return from the injured list, so expect to see both of them in the Cardinals lineup this weekend. As far as the Cardinals are concerned, they can’t come back quick enough. The anemic Redbird offense needs all the help it can get.

As a team, the Cardinals are not reaching base or hitting for much power.  Entering play Wednesday the Cardinals ranked 13th in the National League with both a .301 OPB and .379 slugging rate.  The lineup is littered with recognizable names off to a sluggish start.

Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader are all hitting .230 or worse. Nevertheless, power-hitting first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been immune to the Cardinals’ offensive woes.

The 32-year-old six-time All-Star is slashing .359/.432/.538 through his first 11 games. Throughout his career, he’s produced a modest .260/.337./.476 slash line with 13 homers in 60 appearances against Cincinnati Reds pitching.

St. Louis has had a better time of it on the pitching mound. Entering play yesterday, Cardinal hurlers have produced a respectable 4.14 team ERA. However, what’s been most impressive has been the ability of the pitching staff to limit baserunners.

Their mark of 6.2 hits allowed per nine innings in the best in the NL while their 1.013 WHIP ranks second among senior circuit clubs. The rotation has been solid, but the bullpen has been especially effective.

Redbird relievers have fanned 52 hitters in just 42.1 innings of work through their first 11 contests. Additionally, they’ve allowed just 24 hits and are averaging less than a base runner an inning. If the Cardinals hold a late lead, the Reds will have the unenviable task of battling a bullpen at the top of their game.

Previewing the pitching matchups

There’s one good thing in all the interruptions to start the 2020 season; Sonny Gray (4-1 2.05 ERA) is making his sixth start in the Reds 22nd game of the season. Gray will face longtime Cardinals fixture Adam Wainwright (2-0 1.64 ERA) in tonight’s opener.

What more can we say about Sonny Gray? The Reds right-hander currently leads the NL with 45 strikeouts, ranks fifth in ERA and he’s one of the few Redlegs to have success against the Cardinals. Last year in three starts, Gray allowed two earned runs and nine hits over 16.2 frames while fanning 19 Redbirds.

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Reds Country, it only seems like Adam Wainwright has been in St. Louis for 20 years. Entering his 15th season with the Birds on the Bat, Waino and the Reds, needless to say, are on a first-name basis. However, the 38-year-old right-hander has struggled in his career against Cincinnati.

His career ERA of 5.25 against the Reds is his highest against any opponent he’s faced more than twice. To nobody’s surprise, Wainwright has had his hands full with Joey Votto. The Reds legend is slashing .333/.424/.627 with three homers against the three-time All-Star.

Friday night is Disco night as Anthony DeSclafani (1-1 6.32 ERA) battles fellow right-hander Dakota Hudson (0-2 5.40 ERA). Let’s hope DeSclafani’s last start was an anomaly. It was arguably the worst start of this six-year career.

Recording just six outs, DeSclafani allowed nine runs on as many hits while serving up three long balls. In his previous two starts, Disco tossed 11 scoreless innings. If recent history is any indication, expect a strong performance. Anthony DeSclafani is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA with 31 strikeouts over his last 26 innings against the Cardinals.

It’s been tough sledding for Dakota Hudson to begin the 2020 season. The 25-year-old has not logged five innings in either of his two starts. However, he’s had success against the Redlegs in the past. During four starts last year he went 3-0 and abused Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart. The Cincinnati backstop is 1-for-8 with two punchouts versus Hudson.

Wade Miley (0-2 16.30 ERA) gets another start Saturday against fellow southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim (0-0 3.86 ERA) of the Cardinals. For starters, Miley is much better than what he’s shown in a Cincinnati uniform. There’s reason to believe a solid start is in the offing.

Facing the Redbirds seven times in his career, Wade Miley is 3-3 with a respectable 3.86 ERA. However, he’s been exceptional at Busch Stadium. In four starts he’s compiled a 2.70 ERA over 23.1 innings with 19 strikeouts.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what to expect from Kwang Hyun Kim. The 33-year-old spent a dozen years in the Korean League before coming stateside. In his first two MLB appearances, he’s made a start and earned a save.  Tossing 4.2 innings this year, the left-hander has walked three while only fanning one.

In Sunday’s series finale, Tyler Mahle (0-0 3.38 ERA) squares off against St. Louis right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon (0-2 6.14 ERA). If nothing else, Mahle will be well-rested. His last appearance was his first out of the bullpen in his career on August 12th versus the Kansas City Royals.

Like Wade Miley, Mahle has had success pitching in Busch Stadium in his young career. Making three starts, Mahle’s accumulated an impressive 3.31 ERA and has only surrendered one homer with 11 strikeouts in 16.1 innings of work. Look for Cards veteran Matt Carpenter to take Sunday off. Carp is 1-for-10 lifetime against Mahle with three strikeouts.

Which Ponce de Leon will the Reds see on Sunday? Hopefully, not the one Cincinnati saw in his MLB debut. That night in July of 2018, Ponce de Leon hurled seven no-hit innings against the Reds. Since that initial performance, the Reds have roughed up the 28-year-old for seven runs in 7.1 frames.

Is this the end of the line for this Reds killer?

For 17 years, Yadier Molina has left Reds Country screaming at their television and radio as it seems he takes special delight in terrorizing the Cincinnati Reds. As much as Cincinnati fans attempt to deny it, Molina and Giants backstop Buster Posey have been the preeminent catchers in the NL for the better part of a decade. The nine-time All-Star has done plenty to earn the ire of the Reds faithful.

His 110 career RBIs versus the Reds are his most against any opponent and his 24 homers are second only to the 26 he’s hit when facing the Milwaukee Brewers. Throw in a slash line of .289/.328/.448 and you get the picture. No amount of booing of Molina has kept him from crushing the Reds hearts regularly every year.

However, could it all be coming to end? The nine-time Gold Glove recipient is 38-years old and entering the final year of his contract. Calm down, because chances are Reds Country will have to deal with Molina for at least one more season.

The No. 4 prospect in the Cardinals system is catcher Ivan Herrera. The 20-year-old has not yet played above Advanced-A ball and is not projected to make his MLB debut until the 2022 season. Don’t be surprised to see the Cardinals offer a two-year deal to Yadi in the offseason to once again be their full-time backstop in 2021 before handing over the reins to his successor.