Reds vs Royals: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds will battle the Royals for two games before heading to St. Louis.

Obviously, there’s some good news and some bad news as the Cincinnati Reds (9-11) return to the field Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals. After having the final two games of their series versus the Pittsburgh Pirates postponed following an unidentified Reds player having a positive COVID-19 test, it appears Reds Country will get to watch baseball tonight.

The good news is, it appears the Reds have dodged a major bullet when it comes to the coronavirus. Considering what the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals experienced earlier this season, postponing just two games is a major feat.  Additionally, if everything goes as planned the Redlegs will activate second baseman Mike Moustakas from the injured list before the game.

Now for the bad news. At least one Reds player who was on the active roster this past Friday will be added to the IL until they can successfully pass MLB’s COVID-19 protocols. For the health of the player and everyone around the Cincinnati clubhouse, let’s hope this remains an isolated incident with a safe and speedy recovery coming to fruition.

After last week’s two-game set in the Queen City, the Reds and Royals look to be evenly matched. The two teams split the series at GABP with the Reds capturing a win in extra innings, while the Royals escaped a based loaded jam in the bottom of the ninth to claim victory in the finale. Expect a couple of more tight contests as the scene shifts west.

Reds foe remains competitive in tough AL Central

Don’t let the 9-14 record fool you.  As Reds Country discovered, this Kansas City team is much improved following a couple of brutal years. The Royals are battling teams competitively on a nightly basis. First-year manager Mike Matheny has his squad taking an old-school approach offensively.

For starters, offensively the Reds and Royals are playing a completely different game. Kansas City batters have drawn just 54 walks entering play Monday which is the fourth-lowest total in the American League.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds have drawn 84 free passes ranking in the top three among National League clubs. Rest assured if the pitch is anywhere near the strike zone, Royals hitters are going to cut loose.

Plate discipline is not a high priority for the Royals. Per FanGraphs, Kansas City takes a hack at 48% of the pitches they see. This is the fourth-highest rate in the AL. For comparison’s sake, the Reds are swinging just 42.4% of the time. As a result, the Royals .307 OBP is less than desirable for a team hitting .251 overall.

When it comes to the pitching mound, KC hurlers have been dancing on the edge throughout the 2020 season. Despite having a respectable team ERA of 3.99, which is much better than the AL league average of 4.32, the peripheral numbers tell a different story.

Kansas City arms have compiled a 4.71 FIP which is the fourth-worst in the junior circuit. The 0.72 difference between their team ERA and FIP is the highest in the American League. Next, Royals hurlers have been victimized by the long ball.

Their 1.5 HR/9 rate is the second-worst mark among AL staffs. Additionally, the key for the Reds will be getting the ball into the humid Missouri air. The Royals pitching staff 16.7% HR/FB mark is the second-worst in the American League per FanGraphs.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Royals

Reds manager David Bell will hand the ball to Luis Castillo (0-2 3.91 ERA) who opposes Brad Keller (2-0 0.OO ERA) in the opener. In his last outing, La Piedra turned in a performance more reminiscent of what Reds Country has been accustomed to.

Tossing six innings against the Royals last week, Castillo allowed just one earned run while fanning five. He was particularly cruel to KC shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. Twice, La Piedra set the Royals middle infielder back to the dugout following swinging strikeouts.

Right-hander Brad Keller had an effective outing against the Redlegs last week. Pitching six shutout frames, Keller limited the Reds to just two base hits while striking out three. In 11 innings of work this year, the 24-year-old has allowed only five hits without letting a runner cross the plate.

It’s been nearly two weeks since Trevor Bauer (2-0 0.93 ERA) toed the rubber for the Reds. However, Bauer will finally take the mound again Wednesday night. Between off days and postponements, the Cincinnati right-hander should be well rested if nothing else. Kansas City has not yet named a starter for the series finale.

Bauer has been nothing short of sensational this year. In three starts, Trevor Bauer has mowed down 32 hitters in just 19.1 frames against only four walks. Allowing just two earned runs and seven hits, the California native has remarkably whiffed 12 or more in two of his three starts. Bauer power has been on full display, to say the least.

The Reds may have trouble with the Royals centerfielder

He may not produce the power numbers of Jorge Soler or receive the love bestowed upon Salvador Perez, but Whit Merrifield is an invaluable asset to the Kansas City Royals. When you look at the Royals leaderboard, you’ll see Merrifield’s name sprinkled all over it.

Entering play Monday night, he leads the team with 15 RBIs and is tied for top honors with five round-trippers. He ranks second with an impressive .358 on-base percentage. In addition, Merrifield only trails teammate Ryan McBroom with an outstanding .893 OPS and 139 OPS+ marks.

As fans in Kansas City could tell you this is nothing new. Merrifield has led the American League the past two seasons in hits while leading the junior circuit in stolen bases during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns. The 2019 All-Star also led the AL with 10 triples last year. Needless to say, the guy can play.

Merrifield is also a player that manager Mike Matheny can use all over the diamond. Since his debut as a 27-year-old in 2016, Whit Merrifield has logged more than 50 appearances at second base, center field and right field. Someone with his skill set and versatility is an absolute luxury.

Now at 31-years old, it should be interesting to see what the future hold for Merrifield. He signed a four-year deal before last year that will keep him in Kansas City through the 2022 season. The Royals also have a $10.5 million team option for the 2023 campaign. If any rivals entertain the thought of acquiring Merrifield, it’s going to take a haul to pry him out of Royal blue.