Reds vs Pirates: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds welcome their bitter rivals, the Pirates for a four-game set.

The names may change, but the dislike remains the same. No matter the sport, it seems when the teams from Cincinnati (8-10) and Pittsburgh get together they just can’t play nice with one another. Let’s hope the only action this weekend is between the lines and that Reds and Pirates remain in their respective bullpens and dugouts.

While last year’s season series garnered more attention for all the fisticuff, Pirates’ fans are more inclined to discuss the results. Pittsburgh took 12-of-19 from the Cincinnati Reds last year and this was following the 2018 campaign where they flat out dominated by going 14-5 against the Redlegs.

What the Pirates will find in the 2020 Reds is a club of great generosity. Not only has the Cincinnati bullpen been a complete trainwreck, but the Reds have trouble just recording three outs an inning. That was on full display in a disappointing series split with the Kansas City Royals where Cincinnati allowed one run in five of the first six innings on Wednesday night.

Kyle Farmer notwithstanding, watching the Reds play defense is indeed a comedy of errors. In the two games against the Royals, the defense committed three errors, threw two wild pitches, had a passed ball and allowed two unearned runs to score. This Reds team is talented, but not good enough to continue to overcome these mistakes.

The Reds foe is in a complete tailspin

Someone might want to tell the Pittsburgh Pirates (3-13) the 2020 season has in fact begun. The Pirates have dropped 10 of their last 11 games, many times in painful fashion. Pittsburgh has lost two games of the walk-off variety and have dropped all three of their extra-inning contests  Needless to say they’ve provided plenty of sleepless nights already for rookie manager Derek Shelton.

Where exactly have things gone off the rails for the Pirates? Pretty much everywhere. Entering play Wednesday night, the Pirates are the second-worst hitting team in the National League with feeble .209 average. Don’t laugh Reds County because the Reds are the only NL club trailing them at .208.

Not only are the Pirates not hitting for average, but they struggle to reach base in any fashion. Their .273 on-base percentage is the worst in baseball and their .328 slugging rate is the second-worst in the game. To call the Pirates a weak-hitting club would be a compliment.

Unfortunately, the Buccos have found little solace on the pitching mound. Their team ERA of 5.32 is third from the bottom in the senior circuit. Much of their problem is the inability of Pirates hurlers to find the strike zone.

Issuing an NL worst 77 free passes, their 1.483 WHIP also occupies the league cellar by a wide margin. Whether it’s the rotation or the bullpen, the Pirates can’t keep runners off the base paths. Starters currently own a poor 1.324 WHIP while the bullpen has produced an absolutely horrid 1.626 mark.

Reds manager David Bell might want to stack his lineup this weekend with right-handed bats. Pirate pitching has allowed righties to slash a staggering .280/.381/.482 with 14 homers and 18 doubles in 16 games. Hopefully, this will be an excellent opportunity to get Phillip Ervin’s bat going in the right direction.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Pirates

Anthony DeSclafani (1-0 0.00 ERA) makes his 2020 home debut tonight opposing Trevor Williams (0-3 3.52 ERA) of the Pirates. How good has Disco been this year? In 11 innings, DeSclafani’s allowed five hits and zero earned runs good. Retribution should be on the mind of DeSclafani as he faces the Pirates.

In his last five starts against Pittsburgh, Disco is 0-3 with 5.54 ERA and has allowed 31 hits over 26 frames. Bucs sluggers Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco have been particularly tough outs for DeSclafani. Polanco is slashing .316/.350/.579 with a homer, while Bell has produced a 1.000 OPS with a round-tripper in 17 at-bats versus the Reds right-hander.

Trevor Williams is no stranger to the Reds.  As a matter of fact, I’m sure the right-hander is looking forward to tonight’s start.  The right-hander is 3-1 in his last five starts against Cincinnati with a sparkling 1.42 ERA.  However, Reds DH Jesse Winker has been immune to Williams effectiveness.  The white-hot Reds left-handed slugger is 4-for-6 lifetime against the Pirates starter.

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Cincinnati ace Sonny Gray (3-1 2.25 ERA) toes the rubber Friday night, facing fellow right-hander Chad Kuhl (0-0 2.00 ERA). Gray is looking to bounce back after suffering his first loss of the season to the Milwaukee Brewers last week. Interestingly, if there’s one team Gray has struggled with since joining the Reds, it’s the Pirates.

Lifetime, the Vanderbilt alum has faced the Pirates six times and is 2-3 with an elevated 4.71 ERA. Although, if there’s one Pirates who walks the plank versus Gray it’s third baseman, Colin Moran. The left-handed swinging slugger is 0-for-7 lifetime with four strikeouts when stepping into the batter’s box against Gray.

Kulh has been stingy over his last five starts against the Redlegs. Tossing 28.2  innings, he’s 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 31 punch outs. Kuhl has been particularly unkind to Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart. The Cincinnati backstop is 2-for-12 in his career with five strikeouts against Kulh.

Trevor Bauer (2-0 0.93 ERA) takes the bump Saturday night, squaring off against southpaw Steven Brault (0-0 5.14 ERA) of the Pirates. A strong argument can be made that Bauer has been the Reds’ best starter this season. The numbers don’t lie. In 19 innings, he’s allowed just two runs on seven hits while fanning an astonishing 32 hitters against just four free passes.

It’s no secret to anyone that Bauer has a long memory, so it’s safe to assume he recalls his only start as a Red against Pittsburgh. To be brief, it was a disaster. Lasting just three innings, he was rocked for seven runs on eights hits in addition to surrendering two homers. They say revenge is a dish best served cold, so expect Bauer to be Mr. Freeze Saturday night.

Brault is yet another Pittsburgh hurler who has enjoyed success versus the Cincinnati Reds. In four career starts, he’s 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA while whiffing 21 Redlegs in just 20.1 frames. Sluggers Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker are a combined 1-for-11 lifetime when facing the 28-year-old lefty.

For Sunday’s finale, Luis Castillo (0-2 3.91 ERA) gets the call while the Pirates counter with veteran left-hander Derek Holland (0-1 8.27 ERA). It wasn’t quite vintage La Piedra in his last start, but it was definitely a step in the right direction.

Tossing six innings against Kansas City he allowed just one earned run while mowing down five Royals. Throughout his career, Castillo has been a beast at home. Starting 43 games at Great American Ball Park, he’s fanned 299 opposing hitters in just 264.2 innings while posting a strong 3.23 ERA. Expect to see more of that dominance on Sunday.

The 2020 season has not been kind to Derek Holland. The 33-year-old southpaw allowed an embarrassing 13 hits and an otherworldly five homers in five innings in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. In four of his last seven starts, Holland’s allowed a minimum of six runs. Sunday should prove to be a confidence booster as the Reds prepare to hit the road.

Lucas Sims has found a home in Reds bullpen

On several occasions this year Reds Country has been forced to have their children leave the room when the bullpen gate swings open due to the carnage the relief corps has left behind. However, Lucas Sims has been the one reliable arm in an otherwise untrustworthy bullpen.

Making eight appearances thus far, Sims has whiffed 11 batters and compiled a magnificent 1.08 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 8.1 innings. The Georgia native is on the cusp of making himself a permanent fixture in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen.

What Lucas Sims is doing to left-handed hitters is almost criminal this year. He’s fanned nine of the 19 lefties he’s faced while only allowing one hit. That’s getting it done and the type of versatility you need from your relievers when they’re going to be facing a minimum of three batters every time out.

Arriving in the Queen City as part of the return the Reds received from the Atlanta Braves for Adam Duvall in July of 2018, Lucas Sims has been everything the Reds could have hoped for, and more. The former first-round pick has shown great flexibility, as last year Sims made 24 appearances for the Reds including four as a starter.

Prediction

Missed opportunities have been a theme for the 2020 Reds, however, this is the series to get it right. The Pirates are arguably the worst team in baseball and despite their success in recent years against the Redlegs, they shouldn’t stand a chance versus this Reds club.

After squandering an opportunity for a two-game series sweep over the Kansas City Royals, look for the Cincinnati Reds to take 3-of-4 from the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend and end the homestand sitting at .500 overall.