Reds vs Royals: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 09: Shogo Akiyama #4 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a single (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Reds return home to battle the Royals.

Like much of 2020, the last week was a roller coaster ride for the Cincinnati Reds (7-9) and their fans. After winning the first game of the Ohio Cup versus the Cleveland Indians, Cincinnati proceeded to drop the final three games in the series before righting the ship by taking 2-of-3 from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Much of what we saw last week has been the norm so far this season from the Reds. The runs came in fits and starts, while the bullpen provided nothing even remotely close to relief, leading the club to finish with a 3-4 record last week. However, the one constant this year, the starting pitching, was once again solid.

The Redlegs received quality starts from Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Anthony DeSclafani over the past week while rookie Tejay Antone put together a nice outing in his debut start in the majors. Quality starts, starting pitchers tossing at least six innings and allowing three runs or less, are nothing new for this rotation.

Cincinnati starters have racked up quality starts in 56% of their outings this season. This mark is good enough for third among all National League starting rotations and well above the 29% league average. Reds pitchers also continue to strike out opposing hitters at a dizzying rate.

In 60 innings last week, Reds hurlers fanned a staggering 80 batters. They continue to lead the senior circuit with 185 total punchouts. Their nearest competitor, the New York Mets, are a distant second with 155 strikeouts.

Unfortunately, the Cincinnati Reds have been unable to transfer this dominance on the mound to other parts of their game. Entering play tonight, the Reds have the worst batting average in the NL. The unsightly .203 average is simply amazing for a lineup featuring the likes Joey Votto and Eugenio Suárez.

However, as bad as the average is, the club has a respectable .314 on-base percentage, which is league average and they lead the NL with 68 free passes. Jesse Winker currently leads the team with a .410 OBP, which is also good enough for 10th among all NL hitters.

But no Reds discussion is complete in 2020 without mentioning the bullpen. If the past week is any indication, the bullpen is nowhere close to turning the corner. Beginning play tonight, the relief corps is 1-7 with a ghastly 7.77 ERA.

The only two arms out of the bullpen who have made a minimum of five appearances with an ERA south of 5.00 are right-hander Lucas Sims and lefty Amir Garrett. Perhaps a visit from the Kansas City Royals will help get the bullpen, and the team, back on track.

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 16: Whit Merrifield #15 of the Kansas City Royals rounds third base to score a run. The Royals open a series against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images) /

The Royals seek a return to respectability

Just how bad was the American League Central last year? The Royals lost 103 games last year and managed to stay out of the division cellar. This is coming off a season in which they dropped 104 contests during the 2018 campaign. Needless to say, the World Series title year of 2015 seems like a distant memory.

However, the 2020 Royals (7-10) are showing signs of life under first-year manager Mike Matheny. The former Cardinals skipper has an offense that is proving to be one of the better units in the American League in the early going of the 2020 season.

Kansas City leads the American League with 37 doubles and places third among junior circuit clubs in both slugging (.436) and OPS (.743). Free swinging third baseman Maikel Franco, formerly of the Philadelphia Phillies, currently leads the team and the AL with seven doubles.

But like the classic Royals teams of yesteryear, the club is running the bases like it’s 1976. Kansas City has already swiped 12 bases in 17 games, but have been gunned down seven times in 19 attempts. For comparison’s sake, the Reds have attempted just 11 stolen bases this year. Shortstop Adalberto Mondesi leads the club with four thefts.

The Royals have been above-average from the pitching rubber as well. Their team ERA of 3.95 ranks sixth in the AL while their 146 strikeouts are good enough for fourth among junior circuit clubs.

Even though the rotation has struggled to a 2-7 record with a 4.82 ERA, the KC bullpen has been impressive. Tossing 77 frames they’ve fanned 80 and posted an imposing 3.16 ERA. Former St. Louis closer Trevor Rosenthal is making a case for Comeback Player of the Year. The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed just four hits with three saves and 10 strikeouts this year.

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 27: Wade Miley #22 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the game against the Chicago Cubs (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Royals

Luis Castillo (0-2 4.76 ERA) looks to bounce back following a couple subpar outings as he faces rookie left-hander Kris Bubic (0-2 3.60 ERA) of the Royals. Even though he continues to strikeout hitters at an elite-rate, as evidenced by his 26 K’s in 17 innings, it’s been the only part of La Piedra’s game that seems to be clicking.

In his last 11 frames, Castillo has surrendered eight runs on 12 hits. At best, he’s been the Reds fourth-best starter this season, and that’s being generous. Throughout his young career, the changeup has been Castillo’s most devastating weapon.

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Per FanGraphs, the Kansas City Royals are the worst hitting American League team when it comes to the changeup. If La Piedra doesn’t have success tonight, I’m not sure where we go from here.

Kansas City southpaw Kris Bubic has been steady in his first two major league starts. Over 10 innings, he’s recorded nine strikeouts and has yielded just one long ball. According to FanGraphs, Bubic throws a fastball, curve and changeup with the heater, which averages 92.1-MPH, being his most effective pitch.

Reds lefty Wade Miley (0-1 27.00) wraps up the two-game set opposing right-hander Brad Keller (1-0 0.00 ERA). Things can only go better for Miley as he prepares for his second start as a Redleg. His Reds debut lasted less than two innings, and following the contest he was placed on the IL with a groin injury.

The Royals and Miley are no strangers to one another. Lifetime Miley is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career starts against Kansas City. However, longtime Royals catcher Salvador Perez has blistered Miley, slashing .455/.500/.727 with a homer and three RBIs in 11 career at-bats.

Brad Keller is just 24-years old and already in his third year with the Royals. He is coming off an excellent start in his 2020 debut. Tossing five shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox, he recorded seven punchouts. Keller has had the better of Nick Castellanos in his young career. The Reds slugger is just 2-for-11 with three strikeouts versus the Georgia native.

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 16: Jorge Soler #12 of the Kansas City Royals returns to the dugout after an at bat against the Oakland Athletics. The Royals play the Reds in Cincinnati. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images) /

Royals DH is starting to fulfill potential

When the Chicago Cubs signed 20-year-old Cuban Jorge Soler in June of 2012, many around baseball believed he was destined to become a superstar. Rushed to the majors a little more than two years later, Soler made quite a first impression.

In his MLB debut against the Cincinnati Reds on August 27, 2014, the right-handed slugger went 2-for-4 including a homer off Mat Latos. During a 24-game audition that summer, Soler slashed .292./.330/.573 with five round-trippers and 20 ribbies. Even though the Cubs were in rebuilding mode at the time, it appeared they had a cornerstone piece to build around.

However, two pedestrian-like seasons followed in the Windy City and Soler found himself falling out of favor. He was shipped to Kansas City for closer Wade Davis after the 2016 season. This is one deal where Cubs President Theo Epstein played the wrong hand.

Although Soler played just 96 games during his first two seasons in Kansas City, all the promise and potential was fully realized in 2019. Playing in all 162 games, Soler led the American League with 48 homers, collected 33 doubles and drove in an AL second-best 117 runs. Soler also finished in the top10 in the junior circuit in slugging percentage, extra-base hits and OPS.

It doesn’t appear he’s slowing down anytime soon. The 28-year-old Soler has opened his 2020 season pillaging AL pitching once again. Slashing .286./.370/.556 with five homers and 10 RBIs, Soler is indeed becoming that cornerstone piece to build a franchise around.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 09: Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds rounds the bases after hitting a home run (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Reds DH is starting to lead the way

When a team is hitting .203, it might seem silly to praise a member of the offense, but Jesse Winker has garnered the attention of Reds Country. Over the past week, Winker is slashing an incredible .450./.522/.700 with a homer and two doubles. Those may not be Nick Castellanos power numbers, but they’ll certainly suffice.

We’ve been told ad nausem the past two seasons that Winker can’t hit left-handed pitching. Granted it’s a small sample size, but the 2020 numbers are telling a different story. In 11 plate appearances against southpaws, Winker has drawn a walk and collected two hits. While the .250 batting average is nothing special, the .455 OBP is a welcomed surprise.

As David Bell trots out a different lineup almost nightly trying to find the right combination, it looks as if Jesse Winker has found comfort in the five-hole. In four starts hitting directly behind the cleanup hitter, Winker has posted a ridiculous 1.420 OPS. Again, it’s a small sample size, but the numbers speak for themselves.

It seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Winker and Phillip Ervin would be used as a platoon, with Ervin getting the nod against lefties. However, with Ervin hitting just .100 in 20 at-bats, including .143 versus southpaws, it’s time for David Bell to drop the platoon and let Jesse Winker play himself out of an everyday role.

Prediction

If there was ever a stretch for the Cincinnati Reds to gain some ground in the NL Central, the next 10 days will be crucial. Their next eight games are against the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates. Six of those games are at Great American Ball Park.

Next. Concerns are mounting for Castillo

It’s only a matter of time before the Reds offense breaks loose and I look for that to happen over the next two days as the Reds flush the Royals for a two-game sweep. Going 2-0 versus KC would bring Cincy back up to .500.

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