Reds vs Brewers: Preview, pitching matchups and prediction

The Reds seek redemption following an embarrassing performance in the Ohio Cup.

Reds Country, it can only get better. One would have to believe a 13-0 loss while managing just three hits has to be the nadir of the Reds 2020 season. The Cincinnati Reds (5-8) haven’t scored a run in 20 innings and already find themselves five games behind the division-leading Cubs just two weeks into the season.

Where have things gone wrong to start the 2020 campaign? First, we must look at the bullpen. Entering last night’s game, the Reds relief corps has allowed 10 home runs, 17 walks and 32 hits in just 37 innings of work.

Of course, this was before Thursday’s performance where they surrendered five free passes and 10 runs in just three frames against one of the most offensively inept teams in baseball; the Cleveland Indians. The bullpen has to improve.

However, when you’ve been shutout in two consecutive games while collecting just six hits, it’s unfair to place all the blame on the bullpen. One area of the lineup that was been particularly troublesome has been the three-hole in the order. Traditionally, it’s reserved for the best hitter in a team’s lineup, but for the 2020 Reds, it’s become a black hole.

Entering play yesterday the four Reds hitters who have occupied the third spot in the lineup, Eugenio Suárez, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Joey Votto are slashing an appalling .116/.240/.302 with just two homers and four RBI in 12 games from that spot on David Bell’s lineup card.

Despite the success of Reds second place hitters reaching base at a tremendous .415 rate, it’s been nullified by the inability to generate any semblance of offense following them. The Reds bats must wake up, and do it quickly.

Brewers looking for a return to normalcy.

Like many clubs, nothing has been easy for the Milwaukee Brewers (5-5) to start the 2020 season. They had last weekend’s series wiped out after several members of the St. Louis Cardinals tested positive for COVID-19 during their trip to Milwaukee. As a result, Gold Glove-winning All-Star centerfielder Lorenzo Cain decided to opt-out of the 2020 season after playing in the team’s first seven games.

While the club will certainly miss Cain, it’s also playing without former MVP and notorious Reds killer Ryan Braun. He’s currently on the 10-day IL due to an infected finger. Even though the 36-year-old left fielder is not the threat he used to be, he’s still an integral part of the Brew Crew’s lineup as evidenced by his 22 homers and .343 OBP during the 2019 season.

It’s been a struggle fo the Brewers to generate much offense to begin the season. As a club, they are slashing a paltry .206/.302/.324 with a league-worst six round-trippers entering play last night. Through their first 10 games, they have scored three runs or less five times.

Significant offensive weapons such as Christina Yelich, Keston Hiura, Justin Smoak and Omar Navarez are all hitting .235 or worse. However, outfielder Ben Gamel is off to a strong start. The 28-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder has a double, a triple and two long balls for an impressive .972 OPS through his first 23 at-bats.

However, the Beer Makers have received an excellent effort from their pitching staff. In just 80 innings, the staff has fanned 95 opposing batters. They’ve also been able to keep the bases fairly clean of opposing baserunners by producing a solid 1.163 WHIP.

In recent years, closer Josh Hader typically nails the door shut on any potential rallies while the rest of the Milwaukee bullpen has been rock solid.  Surprisingly, that has not been the case to start this season.

Of course, Hader has been his typical dominant-self and hasn’t allowed a run in his first three outings. But as a whole, the Brewers bullpen has allowed a staggering nine homers and 32 hits in just 37 innings of work.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Brewers

Right-hander Trevor Bauer (1-0 0.68 ERA) kicks off the series at Miller Park opposing southpaw Eric Lauer (0-0 0.00 ERA) of the Brewers. You can’t ask for any more than what Bauer has given the Reds in his first two starts of the season.

Tossing 13.1 innings, Bauer has allowed just one run while punching out 20 batters. In his last outing, Trevor Bauer hurled a complete game seven-inning shutout of the Detroit Tigers in the second game of a doubleheader.

Interestingly enough, this will be Bauer’s first-ever start against Milwaukee. Despite that fact, there are some familiar faces on the current Brewers squad from his old American League days with the Cleveland Indians.

Lifetime both Avisail Garica and Logan Morrison have each hit two dingers off the Reds righty.  Garica is slashing .300/.364/.567 while Morrison has produced a .333/.417/.714 slash line against Bauer.

Lefty Eric Lauer is making his first start of the season and if history is any indication, the Reds will have their hands full. During his time in San Diego, Lauer made four starts against the Reds compiling a 1-1 record with an impressive 2.00 ERA. In three of those four starts, Lauer allowed one run or less, while striking out 22 in only 18 innings.

Saturday night fever hits Milwaukee as Anthony DeSclafani (0-0 0.00 ERA) competes against another Brewer southpaw in Brett Anderson (0-0 6.00 ERA). Disco, or T-Bone as he apparently likes to be referred to, was simply awesome in his debut against the Detroit Tigers. Hurling five innings of shutout baseball, he allowed just three hits without walking a batter.

However, Miller Park has been a house of horrors for DeSclafani over his career. In six starts, he’s 1-4 with an eye-popping 5.83 ERA. To absolutely no one’s surprise, Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, as he does most Reds pitchers, owns Disco.  In 18 at-bats, Yelich is hitting .444 with two homers and three doubles against the Redlegs right-hander.

Anderson is hoping his second start goes much better than his 2020 season debut. Lasting just three innings against the Chicago White Sox, the 12-year veteran allowed two runs on five hits while also hitting a batter. The 32-year-old lefty has been hit hard in four career starts against the Reds. Tossing 21.2 frames, he’s been rocked for 13 earned runs and 25 base hits.

There was much bewilderment around Reds Country earlier this week when MLB TV’s John Smoltz named Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff (1-1 2.08 ERA) as one of his five best starters in the game while leaving Reds ace Sonny Gray (3-0 0.96 ERA) off his list. It looks like this debate will have to be settled on the field in Sunday afternoon’s finale.

Entering this weekend, Gray is tied for the NL League lead with three victories and leads the senior circuit with 28 strikeouts. Hurling 18.2 innings, he’s allowed just two earned runs and eight hits. It may not be enough to impress Smoltz, but I’m sure Milwaukee has taken notice. During a July 3rd start in 2019, Gray matched a career-high with a dozen strikeouts in eight shutout innings against the Brewers.

That’s not to say the 27-year-old Woodruff hasn’t been impressive. Tossing 17.1 innings, he’s whiffed 21 batters. It’s not Sonny Gray impressive, but not too shabby nonetheless. The 2019 All-Star has made five career appearances against the Reds and has been treated rudely by Redleg hitters. He’s surrendered 10 earned runs and 23 hits in 19.2 innings while compiling a 2-2 record with a 4.58 ERA.

Reds’ nemesis is off to a slow start, but …

I’m going to go out on a limb and declare that former MVP Christain Yelich is not going to hit .088 for the entire season. Entering play Thursday night, Yelich was hitting just that through the first nine games of the season. However, there’s reason to believe that’s about to change and, of course, just in time for a series against the Reds.

Last night, in a 8-3 victory over the White Sox, Yelich went 1-for-2 with an inside the park home run, scored three times and drew four walks. When Yelich is right, he’s arguably the best hitter in the game. Following last night’s performance, it appears as if he’s prepared to don his blue and gold cape and save the Brewers once again.

As Reds Country knows all too well, the numbers Yelich has produced against the Redlegs are simply otherworldly. The 2018 NL MVP has hit more homers (14) against Cincinnati pitching than he has any other opponent.

In 55 career games against the Reds, he’s slashing .304/.383./.584 with nine stolen bases and 42 RBIs. As if that’s not enough, Christian Yelich has hit for the cycle not once, but twice against the Reds during his dominating 2018 campaign.

Even though his 2020 slash line of .088/.162/.206 entering play last night is ugly, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks loose. Let’s hope for all of Reds Country sanity’s sake the slump of 2020 is extended at least another three days for Christian Yelich.