Cincinnati Reds: Mystery starter revealed with Ohio Cup on the line

The Reds send Tejay Antone to the mound on Wednesday night versus the Indians.

During the first two games of the 2020 Ohio Cup series, the Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Indians have played to type. Before the series began, we discussed it would likely be dominated by starting pitching with both offenses struggling to score runs. That’s exactly what happened.

True to form, the Reds smacked balls over the fence while struggling to catch anything hit their way and watched the bullpen implode in the late innings. Meanwhile, the Indians received excellent starting pitching and scuffled to string base hits together.

Last night’s contest was one that Reds Country has seen too many times already this season. The defense struggled to make routine plays in the field while the bullpen walked the bases full and gave up a game-deciding round-tripper. Three times in 11 games, the Reds relief corps have surrendered a game-winning homer in the 8th inning or later.

Give Cleveland credit. The Reds were more than willing to hand the Indians gifts and they took advantage of it. Of the six runs the Tribe scored in the first two games, half of those were of the unearned variety.

To put into perspective how generous the Reds have been, the Indians had more runs (4) than hits (3) in Tuesday night’s showdown. In addition to the eight hits combined the Indians had in the two games at Great American Ball Park, they received as many free passes from the Cincinnati pitching staff.

As the scene shifts to Progressive Field, the Cincinnati Reds are entering a ballpark where they’ve had a fair amount of success in recent years. Cincinnati has not dropped a series in Cleveland since the 2016 campaign. Let’s hope that streak continues. Though we’ve already seen the Indians in back-to-back games, let’s take a closer look at the Tribe.

The Indians pitching has kept the Reds bats quiet

Before the series at Great American Ball Park began, we discussed the Cleveland Indians inability to generate much offense and the past two nights did little to dispute those facts. Entering the Queen City, the club was last in the American League in homers, but even that number doesn’t tell the entire story.

Beginning play last night, Cleveland was also occupying the cellar in the junior circuit as a club with a .277 slugging percentage and .558 OPS. Additionally, the Indians are second from the bottom in doubles as well which makes scoring runs a monumental task for the squad.

Currently, Cleveland has four regulars in their lineup hitting .200 or below and three are sporting a horrific OBP of .283 or less. Furthermore, the team has not shown the ability to generate much havoc on the base paths. When the Indians have managed to put runners on the bases, they’ve swiped just two bags in four attempts.

As poor as the hitting has been, the pitching has been just the opposite. As evidenced by the two quality starts from Zach Plesac and Shane Bieber, the Indians are going to be in the game every night. What has been incredible is the staff’s ability to rack up strikeouts without allowing free passes.

Going into Tuesday night’s contest Cleveland pitchers lead the AL in strikeouts with 120 and have walked the fewest with just 16 base on balls. Their phenomenal K/BB rate of 7.50 is more than double their closest competitor in the American League.

If there’s one area the Cleveland hurlers are susceptible it’s the long ball. Just ask Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos. Their 15 round-trippers allowed are well above the American League average of 11 homers. Remarkably, the only homer they’ve surrendered with runners on base was Joey Votto’s game-winning two-run blast on Monday night.

Long time member of the Tribe is underrated

There must be something in the water in the state of Ohio when it comes to first baseman who reach base at a prolific rate. Playing in his 10th season in Cleveland, Carlos Santana has a career-OBP mark of .376 and like his Reds counterpart Joey Votto he’s not afraid to take a walk.

A switch hitter, Santana has crossed the century mark four times in free passes and has walked more than 90 times in eight different seasons throughout his 11-year career. The 34-year-old Dominican native earned a career and American League-high 113 base on balls during the 2014 season.

But like Joseph Daniel Votto, he’s not afraid to play long ball as well. Over the course of 162 games, Santana averages 26 round-trippers. Since the 2016 campaign, he’s hit at least 23 homers and matched his career-high of 34 in 2019 his lone All-Star season.

You want a player that’s durable? Carlos Santana is that guy as well. Since 2011, he’s had only one season in which he failed to appear in less than 150 games. What’s even more impressive is that he’s nowhere close to being a full-time in DH. In 1,224 career games, Santana’s appeared as a DH only 254 times. The guy is simply a gamer.

While Santana does not receive the accolades of teammates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, he’s an integral part of the Tribe. Any player that gets on base at a .367 clip in addition to a career .816 OPS is always welcomed and that’s exactly the kind of player Carlos Santana has been.

Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos has lived up to the billing

Reds Country, are you not entertained? When the Cincinnati Reds signed Nick Castellanos as a free agent this past winter it sent shock waves through the fanbase. Through his first 11 games as a member of the Reds, it appears the front office is going to have a nice return on their investment.

All Castellanos has done is win Player of the Week and collect at least one hit in every game this season. For good measure, he’s currently leading the National League in homers with six, slugging at .912, OPS at 1.373 and an absolutely ridiculous 270 OPS+.

It looks as if manager David Bell has taken notice as well.  In the past two games, Castellanos has been moved to the No. 3 spot in the order behind Joey Votto. This could be a dream scenario for Castellanos. Even though he may not be peak Votto any longer, the Reds first baseman is still getting on-base at .389 rate which will give Castellanos ample opportunities to rack up ribbies.

Castellanos has also found Great American Ball Park to his liking. Through his first eight home games, Castellanos has walloped four home runs and two doubles. By playing half his games in the Queen City, an MVP caliber season is not out of the question for Castellanos.

Prediction

Honestly, the Reds should be walking into Cleveland with an opportunity to sweep the season series, but once again another late-inning meltdown led to their last demise last night. The bullpen surrendered a 2-0 lead in the seventh inning and a two-run homer to Franmil Reyes in the eighth sealed their fate.

Nonetheless, I expect the Redlegs to bounce back and take both games at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo gives the Reds a chance to win every night he takes the hill and there seems to be no stopping Nick Castellanos. Look for the Cincinnati Reds to hoist the Ohio Cup for the first time since the 2014 season.