Reds schedule: Pitching will be front and center in battle for the Ohio Cup

Two of the best rotations in baseball meet as the Reds welcome the Indians.

Beginning play Monday night, the Cincinnati Reds (4-5) are coming off their first series victory of the season following yesterday’s doubleheader sweep of the Detroit Tigers. Now the Reds will return home where they are just 2-4 to begin the 2020 campaign after their brief visit to Motown.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians (5-5) are wrapping up their initial road trip of the 2020 season as well after dropping two of three over the weekend to the red-hot Minnesota Twins. The Tribe is hoping the Reds are as hospitable as they were last July.

Cleveland’s starting pitching stifled the Redleg bats and the Indians offense was just as effective in winning both games at Great American Ball Park and outscoring the Reds 18-3. To be honest, the battle for the Ohio Cup has been a one-sided affair in recent years.

The last time the Reds won state bragging rights was during the 2014 season. Since 2015, the Indians have simply overwhelmed the Reds by winning 18 of the 24 contests. Lifetime, Cleveland owns a 63-50 advantage.

However, there are striking similarities between the two teams early in the current campaign. Entering play on Sunday, both pitching staffs lead their respective league in strikeouts as well as strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are the good numbers.

Unfortunately, the hitting numbers have been ghastly for both units. Beginning play yesterday, the Indians were hitting just .206 as a team, while the Reds are slightly worse sporting a .204 average. Although, the Reds have clubbed twice as many homers, going yard 12 times to just six round-trippers from Cleveland.

Indians bats look for life against the Reds

For starters, the Indians are fortunate to be at .500. Through their first 10 games, they scored less than four runs in seven contests. In fact, they’ve scored more than five runs just once and have only crossed home plate 26 times all season.

Even though the team is slashing a feeble .206/.301/.296, there is one member of the Tribe who has kept the offense afloat. Third baseman Jose Ramirez is raking to begin the season. Slashing .375/.474/.625 with two homers and 5 RBIs, the 27-year-old Dominican has been a force in the lineup. However, he’s never found Great American Ball Park to his liking.

Appearing in 11 games in the Queen City, Ramirez is slashing just .239/.294/.435 in 46 at-bats. However, don’t think it’s to your advantage to force the switch-hitting Ramirez to hit from the right side of the plate late in games. For his career, Ramirez is hitting .277 against right-handers and .288 versus southpaws. The two-time All-Sar can flat-out hit.

A couple of other Indians are finding success at the dish as well. Centerfielder Bradley Zimmer is slashing .294/.409/.471 with a homer, while new second baseman Cesar Hernandez has made a positive first impression in Cleveland. A longtime member of the Philadelphia Phillies, Hernandez is hitting .300 and reaching base at a .382 clip.

This is a series where the Reds will need to make the most of every opportunity they are given because the Cleveland pitching staff is just plain nasty. Indians’ starters have compiled a 2.37 ERA as a group and are averaging 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, don’t think it’s a matter of getting to their bullpen because the relief corps is just as filthy as the rotation. The bullpen is sporting a 1.96 ERA and has not allowed a homer while surrendering just 14 hits in 23 innings. That’s the epitome of a lockdown bullpen.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs Indians

Cincinnati’s ace Sonny Gray (2-0 0.71 ERA) will take the mound in the opener Monday night at GABP opposing fellow right-hander Zach Pleasac (0-0 0.00 ERA) of Cleveland. To say Gray has been awesome to start the 2020 campaign would be a gross understatement. The Reds right-hander is not only becoming a leader among staff but in the clubhouse as well.

During Sonny Gray’s last start against the Chicago Cubs, he took his game directly to the North Siders and wasn’t afraid to let Cubs captain Anthony Rizzo know that the Cincinnati Reds were not backing down.

The Vanderbilt alum has the numbers to back up his banter with opponents on the field. Dating back to last year, in his previous seven starts, Gray’s allowed just 22 hits in 43.1 innings while fanning 55 hitters.

In his last three starts against the Indians, Sonny Gray’s tossed 18 innings and allowed just 4 runs on 10 hits while collecting 18 strikeouts. The Reds will need that type of performance in the opener because Cleveland’s Zach Pleasac was nearly unhittable in his first 2020 start.

Going eight shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox, the 25-year-old allowed just three hits and punched out 11 batters. Pleasac has made one start versus Cincinnati in his young career, tossing 5.1 innings he allowed four runs on five hits and was saddled with the loss in a Reds 7-2 victory.

The Reds will need an extraordinary effort from Tyler Mahle (0-0 4.50 ERA) as he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now, Cleveland right-hander Shane Bieber (2-0 0.00 ERA). Mahle will be taking the rotation of spot of lefty Wade Miley while he’s on the IL with a strained left groin.  In his first, Mahle filled in for Anthony DeSclafani and lasted just four innings against the Cubs.

Mahle had to pitch around trouble often in his 2020 debut as he surrendered six hits and one walk over those four frames though allowing just two runs. His two previous starts against Cleveland have not gone well and that’s being kind.

The 25-year-old California native has been rocked for 12 hits and eight earned runs in only 6.1 innings of work. Needless to say, if he has a similar start Tuesday, it will be nearly impossible for the Cincinnati Reds to come away with a victory.

That’s because Bieber is simply playing another game than anyone else right now. The 25-year-old hurler has yet to allow a run this season covering 14 innings and has fanned a mind-boggling 27 hitters while only giving up one free pass. In two starts against the Reds lifetime, he’s 1-0 and has allowed five runs on 11 hits in 12.1 frames for a 3.65 ERA.

Reds defense has been atrocious to open the season

While nobody in Reds Country was anticipating this club picking up multiple Gold Gloves following the season, it’s been even worse than anticipated. Heading into play Sunday, according to Baseball Reference, the team has accumulated a -10 Rtot which measures the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made. In simple terms, the Reds are the worst in baseball according to this metric.

Of course, this was their number before Nick Castellanos dropped a flyball in yesterday’s game allowing three runs to score. The Cincinnati Reds are fortunate the pitching staff strikes out opponents at such a high rate because every ball put into play has been an adventure for this team.

Through the first nine games of the season, not one Reds defender has a positive rating per Baseball Reference’s Rtot ranking. Third baseman Eugenio Suárez has been the worst culprit, already accumulating a -2 Rtot rating.

Unfortunately for Geno, this is becoming a trend. Last year, Suárez was the second-worst third baseman in the National League with a -8 Rtot ranking while leading the hot corner in errors for the second year in a row with 17 miscues.

Manager David Bell has shown a willingness to make defensive substitutions late in contests. It may be time for the Reds to sit Geno in the ninth inning to preserve leads. A player like Christian Colón or Kyle Farmer may be a better option defensively.

Prediction

Monday night’s game is huge for the Cincinnati Reds. Their ace Sonny Gray is toeing the rubber and with the prospects of facing Shane Bieber on Tuesday, it’s imperative the Redlegs win this game.

Expect the Reds to do just that and split the GABP portion of the Ohio Cup before trekking to Cleveland for a two-game set for Wednesday and Thursday. The Reds are flirting with the .500 mark and need a solid showing this week versus the Indians.