Cincinnati Reds: Predicting an expanded 30-man Opening Day roster

Starting pitchers (6)

Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Wade Miley and Tyler Mahle

The strength of the Reds will only get stronger with the addition of an extra player. With Noah Syndergaard undergoing Tommy John surgery, bragging rights for the best starting rotation in the National League will come down to the Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds.

Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley were already on track to be the Reds starters heading into the 2020 season. Tyler Mahle, who started 25 games for the Reds last season, appeared to be on the outside looking in. However, the delayed start to the season will likely put Mahle back into the rotation.

Some fans will bemoan the addition of Mahle to the rotation, as the right-hander went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA in 2019. However, if you take a step back and dig deeper, you’ll see that Mahle pitched better in 2019 than he did in 2018. According to FanGraphs, Mahle’s strikeout-rate went up and his walk-rate went down.

The biggest blemish on Mahle’s stat line from 2019 was the number of long balls he surrendered. The 25-year-old saw 25 balls leave the yard and his HR/9 was 1.74. To be fair, Trevor Bauer’s HR/9 was 1.44 and he let 34 fly balls land in the seats. Reds ace Luis Castillo allowed 22 homers himself. The point is, as a sixth starter, Mahle will be more than up to the task.

Having Tyler Mahle as the Reds sixth starter will be an advantage that most clubs do not have. Mahle has experience beyond just the minor leagues and could really up his stock heading into 2021 when he’s likely to take over for either Anthony DeSclafani or Trevor Bauer, both of whom are free agents at the end of the 2020 season.

Starting lineup (8)

Joey Votto, Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Castellanos, Freddy Galvis and Jesse Winker

After adding three starters via free agency during the offseason, the Cincinnati Reds have a potent offense heading into the 2020 season. The delayed start to the season will undoubtedly help put Eugenio Suárez back in the Opening Day lineup and the first six batters in the Reds batting order will be a tough out, night in and night out.

Cincinnati spent big this offseason, bringing in Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and then hitting the trifecta with the addition of Nick Castellanos. Sandwiching those three along with the likes of Suárez, Jesse Winker and Joey Votto will give the Reds a group of six players who can get on base and hit for power.

Freddy Galvis set a career-high in home runs (23) last season and will be the Reds starting shortstop. While a lot of fans wanted Cincinnati to go after a trade for Francisco Lindor, Galvis is an excellent defensive shortstop and brings power to the dish. If Freddy Galvis is the worst hitter among the regulars in your lineup, you’re doing pretty good.

Though we’re likely to see plenty from Curt Casali in 2020, Tucker Barnhart will get the nod more times than not. Switching to being a left-handed hitter exclusively, Barnhart will likely gain the start when a right-hander is on the mound and Casali will hang the signs when the Reds face a southpaw.

Nick Senzel’s absence from the starting lineup is not a lack of faith in last year’s rookie, but rather the reality of his current standing with the team. I expect Senzel to have a big year, but he’ll be a rotational player along with Akiyama and Winker. We’ll talk more in-depth about Senzel a little later.

Relief pitchers (10)

Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Raisel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson, Pedro Strop, Lucas Sims, Nate Jones, Cody Reed, Tyler Thornburg and Jesse Biddle

The bullpen may the one aspect of the 2020 Reds team that will most affected by the delayed start. There’s a few players that have their names cemented heading into the season, but there’ll be a great deal of competition if the league allows the roster to expand to 30. The newly instituted rule requiring pitchers to face at least three batters will definitely have an impact on the bullpen.

Last year, the Reds brought in Zach Duke to be the team’s LOOGY, likely called upon to only face one or two left-handed hitters. Those types of players will likely be tossed aside, as Major League Baseball is now requiring a pitcher to face a three-batter minimum or finish the half inning in which they entered the game.

Amir Garrett is the lone lefty in the Reds bullpen guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster. However, the likelihood of expanded rosters greatly increases the chances that Cody Reed will have a spot among the Reds relief corps. Reed is out of minor-league options, as is Lucas Sims, who’ll likely find a spot in the Reds pen as well.

The non-roster invitees will have a knock-down-drag-out affair before the start of the season. Nate Jones is the most likely player to make the team, but don’t rule out Brooks Raley, Tyler Thornburg or Jesse Biddle.

The addition of Pedro Strop cannot be overstated. Though he didn’t have the most successful 2019 season, Strop brings a sorely needed veteran presence to a bullpen that lost David Hernandez and Jared Hughes last season.

Bench players (6)

Phillip Ervin, Nick Senzel, Mark Payton, Curt Casali, Kyle Farmer and Derek Dietrich

This will most certainly be the most interesting roster battle to watch before the 2020 season kicks off. The Cincinnati Reds have a plethora of good, young talent who can play multiple positions, but those who make the cut may be decided based on a couple different factors. Minor-league options being one of the biggest.

Phillip Ervin is out of minor-league options, and after dominating left-handers last season, one has to think that Ervin is lock to make the squad. Kyle Farmer’s versatility to play all over the infield, including catcher, makes him invaluable and secures his spot on the Cincinnati bench. We mentioned Casali earlier. He’ll platoon with Tucker Barnhart behind the plate.

So, three of the six are easy selections. Actually, make that four. The delayed start to the season virtually guarantees that Nick Senzel will be recovered from offseason surgery. Last year’s starting centerfielder could have an interesting role heading into 2020. An infielder by trade, Senzel’s versatility might find him a start or two at second or third base depending on the schedule.

If he’s used exclusively in the outfield, expect Senzel to stick in center field. Shogo Akiyama will likely get his fair share of starts there as well, but the Japanese-born outfielder could also slide over to left field on occasion as well, giving Cincinnati a starting outfield of Akiyama, Senzel and Nick Castellanos.

An expanded roster may really increase the chances that we see Mark Payton make the cut. A Rule 5 draftee, Payton must make the roster or be offered back to the Oakland A’s. A left-handed bat off the bench is a must as well, and that will likely come down to Derek Dietrich and Josh VanMeter. Last year’s rookie has two minor-league options remaining, so we’ll keep Dietz for now.

Notable players who didn’t make this roster projection were Aristides Aquino, David Carpenter and Alex Blandino. All three, and others currently on the roster, will likely be in the mix once an abbreviated spring training starts up again.