Cincinnati Reds positional preview vs. NL Central: first base

The NL Central is a hot bed of talented first basemen. Where do the Cincinnati Reds rank among the other first basemen in the division?

Entering the 2019 season, the National League Central Division was loaded with talent at the first base position. The St. Louis Cardinals had added Paul Goldschmidt, the Cincinnati Reds had former MVP Joey Votto, the Chicago Cubs boasted three-time Gold Glove Award winner Anthony Rizzo and the Pittsburgh Pirates were home to the up-and-coming Josh Bell.

Heading into the 2020 season, most of the names are still the same, but the perception of where each player ranks in terms of their value may be a bit different. Votto put up another sub-par season for the Cincinnati Reds, Goldschmidt didn’t live up to expectations in the Gateway City and Bell brought power to the Buccos lineup on a nightly basis.

The Milwaukee Brewers lost faith in Jesus Aguilar. After an All-Star season in 2018, Aguilar fell way short of expectations and was eventually let go by the Crew, only to be picked up by the Tampa Bay Rays. Aguilar signed with the Miami Marlins this offseason and Milwaukee now has Justin Smoak as the team’s starting first baseman.

So, who’s the best first baseman in the National League Central? There’s likely to be varying opinions, especially depending on which fanbase you find yourself in. However, let’s try to take an unbiased look at all five starting first basemen in the division and see if we can get an accurate ranking. This is the first in a series of positional rankings of Reds players against division opponents.

5. Justin Smoak, Milwaukee Brewers

Justin Smoak, a fine major league player, comes in at No. 5 on the list. Smoak was signed to a one-year/$4M deal this past offseason with a team option for 2021. Smoak will be counted on to replace the departed Eric Thames who signed with the Washington Nationals. Smoak has spent the previous five seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays.

During his time North of the border, Justin Smoak hit .237/.338/.459 with 117 home runs and 321 RBIs. Smoak has made one All-Star appearance during his 10-year big league career, and last season put up his worst statistical performance since 2014 with the Seattle Mariners.

Justin Smoak does possess decent power, hitting 20-plus homers in the past three seasons with a .470 slugging percentage. However, his defense leaves a lot to the imagination. According to FanGraphs, Smoak has -30 defensive runs saved throughout his tenure in the big leagues, with a -7 DRS last season in Toronto.

4. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Speaking of Toronto, Joey Votto comes in at No. 4 on this list, a position few in the baseball world would’ve predicted following his near-MVP performance during the 2017 season. But, two years later, Reds fans are hoping for a bounce-back season from the six-time All-Star, as his standing on this team is beginning to be questioned by the fanbase.

Reds Country has been spoiled by Votto over the years. The former second-round pick enters the 2020 season in need of a rebound. The past two seasons, Votto’s batting average has dipped well below the expectations of both Reds fans and Votto himself. The 36-year-old put up a combined .272 batting average the past two seasons after hitting .313 for the previous 11 seasons.

This may be the best Cincinnati Reds team to surround Joey Votto since 2012. The additions of Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos provide power behind him in the batting order, and Shogo Akiyama will fit nicely as the Cincinnati leadoff hitter. Votto has a chance to be good, but the years of the former MVP to be great are likely behind him.

3. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

Finding Paul Goldschmidt’s name at No. 3 should give everyone a good indication of how loaded the NL Central is at first base. Goldschmidt was traded last offseason from the Arizona Diamondbacks, but didn’t put up the type of numbers that fans in St. Louis expected. Goldy slashed .260/.346/.476 with 34 homer and 97 RBIs.

Like Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt is a six-time All-Star. Goldschmidt found his power during the second half of the 2019 season, hitting .274/.356/.552 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs after the month of June. If that version of Goldschmidt is what Reds fans can expect to see in 2020, then the Cardinals might be better than we first thought.

2. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates

Josh Bell is the best player on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 27-year-old made his first trip to the All-Star Game last season and put up career-highs in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs and RBIs. Bell is a a star in the making and is under team control through the 2022 season. Bell has a lot of time left in the Steel City.

Josh Bell was a Reds killer last season, hitting .297/.343/.625 with five home runs and 16 RBIs off Cincinnati hurlers in 2019. Bell has power from both sides of the plate, as thee switch-hitting first baseman was still able to slugging .448 from the right side. Joey Votto’s slugging percentage on the season was just .411.

Unfortunately for Josh Bell, he’s likely to be on the wrong side of the scoreboard more times than not in 2020. Much like Votto was from 2014-2018 with the Cincinnati Reds, Bell will be the best player on a rebuilding team. Look for big numbers from Bell, but little team success from the Pirates in 2020.