Cincinnati Reds: Top three candidates to bat leadoff in 2020

1. Shogo Akiyama, Outfielder

The best bet to bat leadoff for the Reds on Opening Day is Shogo Akiyama. Cincinnati signed their first Japanese-born player this offseason and Akiyama’s three-year/$21M deal guarantees he’s going to see the field early and often this season. While Akiyama’s permanent place defensively may not yet be defined, he’s likely to find his spot atop the Reds batting order.

What can we expect from Shogo Akiyama in 2020? Who knows? Scott Boyken, one of the contributors for Blog Red Machine, suggested that some of the projections for the 31-year-old outfielder might be a bit lofty. ESPN and FanGraphs both project Akiyama to hit over .260 with an on-base percentage above .330.

If those projections hold true, then we’re likely to see a lot of Akiyama in the leadoff role next season. However, sometimes the transition from the Japanese leagues to Major League Baseball is not easy. Boyken cited the rookie campaign of another Japanese outfielder, Nori Aoki, who put together a .288/.355/.433 slash line in 2012.

One look at those stats, and Reds Country is about to get very excited. However, while those numbers are solid, both his batting average and on-base percentage both dropped over 40 points from Aoki’s time in Japan.

Akiyama has hit over .300 in four of the past five seasons while playing for the Seibu Lions of the Nippon Professional Baseball league. Akiyama’s on-base percentage hovered at or above .400 during those five seasons as well. If Akiyama produces at that level, there’s little doubt that he’ll be the Reds leadoff hitter in 2020.

2. Nick Senzel, Centerfielder

Nick Senzel saw time at all nine spots in the batting order for the Reds during his rookie season, but the 24-year-old started the most games (62) as the team’s leadoff hitter. Senzel’s spot atop Cincinnati’s lineup depends greatly on his ability to get and remain healthy. Last season, Senzel ended the season on the injured list with a torn labrum in his right shoulder.

Senzel is on track to return to the Reds lineup by Opening Day. David Bell spoke to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on the status of last year’s rookie, who battled injuries throughout his first big league season, but still played 104 games:

“It’s definitely day-to-day evaluation and kind of one step at a time. We can’t rush it. But we’re hopeful that he’ll be able to play games here.”

By here, Bell is of course referring to Goodyear, Arizona. Don’t expect to see Senzel on the field for the Reds when Cincinnati begins Cactus League play against the Cleveland Indians. Senzel is currently on a modified throwing program, but has taken batting practice during the early-part of spring camp.

Nick Senzel may be the fastest player on the Cincinnati Reds roster. Adding that element to the top of the Reds lineup could be a huge bonus. Senzel’s on-base percentage was just .315 last season, but during his minor league career, he put together an OBP of .388 over a four-year span. If Senzel can elevate his ability to get on base, it’ll be tough to keep him out of the No. 1 slot.

3. Jesse Winker, Outfielder

Don’t sleep on Jesse Winker occupying the leadoff spot for the Cincinnati Reds on Opening Day against the St. Louis Cardinals. The 26-year-old outfielder has struggled to stay healthy over the past two seasons, playing only 113 games last season and just 89 in 2018. However, Winker is better than most fans give him credit for.

Winker’s career-OBP is .379. That’ll play all day long. The Buffalo native showcased some of his power last season as well, hitting 16 home runs. Winker’s problems came against left-handed pitchers, as the left-handed hitting slugger hit just .163 off southpaws in 2019. Winker’s struggles against lefties cost him playing time, as David Bell often subbed Phillip Ervin when a lefty was on the mound.

I would venture to say that we’ll see a similar approach from Bell this season until Winker proves the skeptics wrong. Given the plethora of outfield talent on the Reds roster, that wouldn’t be a bad approach. Whether it’s Ervin, Aristides Aquino or Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati has plenty of right-handed bats capable of playing the outfield.

Winker may be on a short leash this season. His career-OPS of .845 suggests that Winker could be a force in the Reds lineup, but his lack of success against left-handed pitching and an inability to stay on the field raises questions about his future with the club. Spring training may not be of greater importance to anyone on the Reds roster.

With the additions of Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos, both of whom are likely to play early and often in the outfield, Jesse Winker has to prove that he too can contribute. Winker is a long shot to be the Reds leadoff hitter on Opening Day, but the possibility exists. If Winker balls out during Cactus League play, he has a chance to earn the top spot in the Reds batting order.