Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino may be the odd-man out

With the addition of Nick Castellanos, the Cincinnati Reds outfield is bursting at the seams. Aristides Aquino may be the odd-man out.

The Cincinnati Reds have a problem on their hands, but it’s a good problem to have. After the signing of Nick Castellanos yesterday, the Reds already overcrowded outfield is now ready to explode with the influx of talent. Unfortunately, the most likely player to be deemed expendable may surprise a lot of fans. Aristides Aquino could be the odd-man out.

Now, before you jump out of your chair, I’m not advocating the Reds designate Aquino for assignment, release him or trade him. Aquino has one minor-league option remaining, meaning he can be sent down to Triple-A Louisville to being the 2020 season and recalled to the big leagues whenever the front office so chooses.

Last winter, the Reds waived Aquino, but luckily were able to re-sign him to a minor-league deal days later. As it turned out, The Punisher dismantled opposing pitchers in the minor leagues, earning himself a call-up to the big leagues after the trade of Yasiel Puig to the Cleveland Indians.

Aquino continued his onslaught and brutalized opposing hurlers at the major league level as well. During the month of August, The Punisher slashed .320/.391/.767 with 14 home runs and 33 RBIs. Aquino broke several rookie records during that span and took home NL Player of the Month honors.

Unfortunately, that level of success didn’t translate to September. After a white-hot August, Aquino came back to earth a bit, slashing just .196/.236/.382 with only 4 homers and 14 RBIs during the final month of the season. Aquino still finished the 2019 with an incredibly respectable .891 OPS.

Until yesterday, it was assumed that Aquino had the inside track to become the Reds everyday right fielder. Not only does Aquino have unbelievable power, but The Punisher is a very good defender with plus-speed and a plus-arm. However, signing Nick Castellanos jumbles the picture for what the upcoming season’s outfield may look like.

Barring a trade, which is certainly a possibility, one would expect Castellanos to lay claim to one of the outfield spots. He appears more comfortable in right field, so we’ll concede that spot to him. The signing of Shogo Akiyama gives the Reds some flexibility, but one would assume that Akiyama will find regular playing time in both center field and in left.

If healthy, Nick Senzel will likely start the 2020 season in center field, though it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities to see last year’s rookie find some time on the infield dirt. Jesse Winker is sure to gather several at-bats per week as both a starter in left field and a left-handed bat off the bench.

With those four players as virtual locks to play a lot of games heading into next season, that leaves the Reds with two very good outfielders left to pick up the scraps and fill the role of utility outfielder. Those two players would be Aristides Aquino and Phillip Ervin.

You could easily make the argument that Aquino is the better fielder and the better hitter. Both have speed on the base paths, but Ervin doesn’t possess near the power of Aquino or the plus-arm. So why would Ervin get the nod over Aquino? It’s quite simple, Phillip Ervin has no minor-league options remaining.

With Castellanos only guaranteed to stay in the Queen City for one season, it would be foolish of the Reds to let Ervin go. The 27-year-old is the perfect utility outfielder. Ervin hit extremely well against left-handers last season and his defensive versatility would give David Bell some insurance late in games.

Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos are not elite defenders. According to FanGraphs, last season, Winker accounted for -3 defensive runs scored (DRS) while playing the outfield. Castellanos had -9 DRS in 2019. Ervin improved his defense dramatically last season, going from -5 DRS in 2018 to 6 DRS in 2019.

This is not to say that Aristides Aquino will not see time at the major league level next season. In fact, that’s far from the truth. If anything, over the past two seasons, Reds fans know all too well that injuries are part of the game. Winker and Senzel missed significant time last season. In 2018, Winker ended the year on the injured list and Scott Schebler missed a good chunk of time as well.

I still see Aquino as a big part of the Reds future. In fact, he could easily make the Reds Opening Day roster, especially if Nick Senzel has yet to return from shoulder surgery. Look for Aquino to have an impact on next year’s team, but he may begin the season with the Louisville Bats rather than Cincinnati Reds.