Cincinnati Reds: Is Nick Senzel or Jesse Winker more likely to be traded?

With the addition of Shogo Akiyama, the Cincinnati Reds outfield seems a bit too crowded. Is Nick Senzel or Jesse Winker more likely to be traded?

Let the debate begin! The Cincinnati Reds finally made the acquisition of Shogo Akiyama official on Monday, signing the 31-year-old Japanese outfielder to a three-year/$21M contract. The addition of Akiyama brings intrigue and questions along with it. Is the Reds outfield too crowded? If so, is Jesse Winker or Nick Senzel more likely to be traded?

To say the Reds outfield is overcrowded is an understatement. Akiyama, Senzel, and Winker join a roster with the likes of Aristides Aquino, Scott Schebler, Nick Martini, Mark Payton, Travis Jankowski, Phillip Ervin, and Josh VanMeter. Not everyone is going to get a spot on the Opening Day roster, in fact, at most, you’re likely to see just six names.

To be fair, the likelihood of Martini or Schebler making the roster is not great. Jankowski profiles more as a defensive replacement, but could carve out a niche on next year’s squad. Payton is a Rule 5 Draft pick, so his inclusion is a must unless the team wants to lose him. VanMeter can play several positions, meaning he has flexibility and could squeeze onto the roster as a backup.

That still leaves the outfield a bit crowded. Aquino showcased his talents last summer and will likely open spring training with an inside edge to be the team’s everyday right fielder. Ervin mashed against lefties last season and can play all three positions, making him a great option as the team’s fourth outfielder.

That leaves Senzel and Winker likely duking it out for an everyday role on next year’s team. This isn’t even taking into account Cincinnati’s continued pursuit of Marcell Ozuna. So, if one of these two players has to go, which one should the Reds choose? Let’s examine the case for and against trading both outfielders.

Should the Reds trade Nick Senzel?

The idea of trading Nick Senzel, the team’s top prospect for the last several seasons seems ludicrous to me. The Cincinnati Reds invested a first-round pick in order to land Senzel, bounced him all over the diamond in an effort to get him to the big leagues, kept him in the minors just long enough to alter his free agent status, and now you want to trade him? No way, right?

Well, hold on just one minute. While many scouts, experts, pundits, and fans agree that Senzel has the potential to be a top-flight player in Major League Baseball, he’s not without his flaws. Senzel began his professional career as a third baseman, but with the play of Eugenio Suárez, the team decided to switch Senzel to second base, hoping to see him take the reigns at that position.

An unexpected outburst from waiver wire pickup Scooter Gennett slowed the Reds process of elevating Senzel to the big leagues, as did a few bouts with some strange and concerning injuries. The club made the decision last offseason to transition Senzel to center field. While obviously not a Gold Glover in the outfield, Senzel held his own during his first season playing on the grass.

Senzel played 104 games last season, but was placed on the injured list near the end of his rookie campaign following a shoulder injury. The 24-year-old finished 2019 with a slash line of .256/.315/.427 to go along with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs.

By all accounts, Nick Senzel has the opportunity to be one of the best players on the Cincinnati roster last season. After getting his first taste of big league pitching last season and making the transition to center field, the University of Tennessee product will be expected to be a key piece of next year’s lineup.

Should the need arise, Senzel may also be able to help the Reds on the infield dirt. Though the signing of Mike Moustakas alleviates the need for Senzel to play second base, Freddy Galvis is thee team’s best option at shortstop. Though he’s only played one professional inning at the position, one would think Senzel could make the transition.

In terms of trading away one of the best young players in your organization, the only way I can see Cincinnati dealing Senzel is if the Reds are able to work out a deal with the Cleveland Indians for their superstar Francisco Lindor. While Senzel has the potential to eventually reach the same level as Lindor, the Indians shortstop is a four-time All-Star with game-altering capabilities.

Whether playing center field, shortstop, or any other position on the field, Nick Senzel can be a difference maker. If Senzel were to be the centerpiece of a trade for Lindor, while tough, I think the Reds would have to include last year’s rookie in that deal. However, no other player, likely to be on the trade block, is worth sacrificing Senzel’s future in Cincinnati.