Cincinnati Reds: Anthony DeSclafani should be offered long-term contract

Rather than go through the arbitration process, the Cincinnati Reds should sign Anthony DeSclafani to a long-term extension.

The deadline for teams and arbitration eligible players to submit and exchange salary figures for what the player should earn in 2020 is quickly approaching. Rather than go through the arbitration process, the Cincinnati Reds should attempt to sign right-handed pitcher Anthony DeSclafani to a long-term extension.

The Reds had a lot of success among their starting pitchers last season. Luis Castillo led the way early, and Sonny Gray closed hard, giving Cincinnati a very talented one-two punch atop the rotation. Tanner Roark was a steady presence through the first half of the season, and the trade for Trevor Bauer brought one of the more talented MLB pitchers to the Queen City.

Counted on to provide the Reds with a left-handed presence on the mound, Alex Wood remainder injured throughout the majority of last season. Wood’s absence allowed Tyler Mahle to start 25 games in 2019. Though Mahle had rough season, several of his numbers improved. Even Lucas Sims showcased his talents on a few occasions, giving the Reds something to ponder this winter.

Not satisfied with the rotation, Dick Williams and Nick Krall went out and signed Wade Miley to two-year contract. Reuniting the left-handed veteran with his former Milwaukee Brewers pitching coach, Derek Johnson, Cincinnati’s brass is hoping for big things from Miley next season.

However, one of the most steady pitchers for the Reds last season was Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander went 9-9 with a 3.89 ERA, tying a career-high with 31 starts. After an injury-plagued couple of years, Disco proved that he could remain healthy for a season, and put together one of the better seasons in the entire National League.

Among qualified starting pitchers, DeSclafani placed 19th in ERA. While Gray (5th) and Castillo (12th) finished ahead of Disco, it’s doubtful that anyone throughout Major League Baseball expected DeSclafani to put up those types of numbers. The 29-year-old ranked 17th in the league in strikeouts (167), breaking his career-high from 2015.

DeSclafani’s career-high in punch outs last season bested the likes of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Julio Teheran, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana. His ERA was better than that of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard. Disco’s strikeouts per nine innings (SO9) of 9.02 was 17th best in the NL, and was better than Ryu, Wheeler, Anibal Sanchez, and Mike Soroka.

Anthony DeSclafani is entering his final year of arbitration and will be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season provided he and the Reds do not come to an agreement on a long-term deal. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Disco is projected to take home $5.2M next season.

If DeSclafani does not agree to long-term deal and has similar success in 2020, he’ll be looking at a hefty payday next winter. We’ve already seen several starters take home big contracts this offseason. Forget Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, as Disco is not in that stratosphere. But Bumgarner, Wheeler, and Ryu received massive deals this offseason.

Being that DeSclafani has yet to string together back-to-back solid seasons, a long-term contract for the New Jersey native might more closely resemble the deal that Michael Pineda signed with the Minnesota Twins (two-years/$20M). Even Tanner Roark landed a two-year/$24M contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Obviously, the Cincinnati Reds have a steal of deal with Sonny Gray. The right-hander agreed a contract extension following his trade from the New York Yankees that keeps him in the Queen City through at least 2022. Luis Castillo is still under team control through 2023 and the Reds have a few young arms coming up through the minors as well.

With DeSclafani and Trevor Bauer slated to become free agents next winter, the Reds could potentially lose 40% of their 2020 starting rotation. Reds Country is hoping for Wade Miley to replicate the success everyone witnessed during his time in Milwaukee and earlier this past season with the Houston Astros. However, Miley fell apart over the last month-plus of 2019.

The danger with extending DeSclafani is his injury history. Having missed almost two full seasons due to elbow issues, Disco has only put together one full season since 2015. The danger in not extending DeSclafani is losing a reliable piece of your starting rotation, while relying on a 34-year-old veteran and some up-and-coming prospects to fill the hole heading into 2021.

At the estimated $5.2M, the Reds could definitely invest more money into the bullpen and even another bat rather than increase DeSclafani’s base pay for 2020. However, if the right-hander performs at or near the level we saw in 2019, he’ll likely price himself out what the Cincinnati Reds would be willing to pay.