Cincinnati Reds: Grading Amir Garrett’s inconsistent 2019 season

Amir Garrett’s season was a tale of two halves. He was one of the best to start the year, but the Cincinnati Reds reliever struggled down the stretch.

Amir Garrett came out of the gate in 2019 as one of the most consistent players on a Cincinnati Reds team that struggled at the beginning of the year. Garrett was used as a LOOGY in the early going, but gained the confidence of his manager as the season progressed. Unfortunately, an injury and overuse of his slider, caused Garrett to stumble down the stretch.

Garrett did not give up a single run through his first seven outings of the season. To find a game where Garrett gave up two runs or more runs after the first of the season, you’d have to venture 71 games in, all the way to June 18th against the vaunted Houston offense. When Garrett was on the mound, the Reds could be confident he would pitch a quick inning.

Garrett appeared to be a completely different pitcher from the rookie starter we saw in 2017 who owned a 7.39 ERA. After settling in and getting used to a bullpen role, Garrett became one of the best pitchers on the staff, sporting a sub-2.00 ERA for almost the entire first half.

A beginning to the season like Garrett had usually ends with an All-Star appearance. Unfortunately, Garrett just missed the cut. Teams with only one All-Star took up three of the pitching spots on the roster, so there just wasn’t space for him.

By the time replacements came around, Garrett was on the injured list with a left lat strain. If healthy, he likely would have been able to add an All-Star season to his resumé. Not only did his injury prevent him from being named to the All-Star squad, but it ended what could have been a historic season for the Cincinnati Reds reliever.

Garrett’s first vs second half splits weren’t exactly pretty. After a 1.70 ERA in the first half, a 6.16 ERA in the second half severely brought his numbers down. Garrett finished the season with a 3.21 ERA, which is respectable, but disappointing compared to the first half of the season.

Batters adjusted to Garrett’s slider and he couldn’t readjust. Amir Garrett threw his slider with the same frequency the entire season, right around 57% of the time, with his fastball coming the other 43%. The difference between the first and second half is how often batters were swinging.

Garrett had a 1:2 ball-to-strike ratio in the first half. This increased to 2:5 in the second half, or roughly 40% of the time. He wasn’t throwing more pitches out of the zone, batters just knew not to swing at them. His walk rate increased to 5.63 per nine innings.

Garrett’s biggest issue in the second half was the type of contact batters made. His hard contact rate increased from 33% in the first half to 46% in the second half. Garrett had a 1.89 HR/9 in the second half as opposed to a 0.73 HR/9 in the first half.

In order to have a successful 2020, Amir Garrett needs to find a new way to get batters out. The league figured out his slider and he needs to adjust again. If Garrett can make the necessary adjustments, the Cincinnati Reds have a tremendous lefty on their hands.